After a strong start to his MLB career, right fielder Dylan Crews has faced challenges with his offensive performance. Crews hit two home runs in his first four games and seemed poised for success. However, pitchers have adjusted, and Crews is now searching for solutions. Despite these difficulties, there’s no need to worry. His brief time in the big leagues has given plenty of reasons for optimism. With some adjustments, there’s potential for him to become a star as early as next season.
Dylan Crews doesn’t have a hit in his last five games including today (0 for 19). A lot of hard hit balls, but he’s been hitting them right to guys or on the ground.
His first two groundouts today were 106.7 and 106.1 mph. His last was 78.6.
— Andrew Golden (@andrewcgolden) September 22, 2024
High Hopes, Early Struggles for Dylan Crews
Trouble With the Curve
It didn’t take long for pitchers to get the book on Crews, do not throw him fastballs. So far in his young career, Crews has done all his damage on fastballs. His extra-base hits have come on heaters, and 16 of his 20 hits have been off the fastball. Pitchers have responded by simply not giving him many fastballs. In his recent 0 for 19 slump, he only saw seven fastballs.
Pitchers are doing this for good reason, he has not been able to hit big league-breaking balls. Crews is 2-for-34 against breaking pitches with a 36.4 percent whiff rate. There are plenty of great hitters who whiff a lot against breaking balls. The bigger issue for Crews is he is not making quality contact against them either. His average exit velocity against breaking balls is 84.4 MPH, compared to 90.1 MPH against fastballs. Against breaking balls, and in general, Crews is hitting the ball on the ground too much, a common issue since Darnell Coles has been hitting coach. He has a 61 percent ground ball rate, which is not a formula for success.
Still Reason for Hope
Despite this rough offensive stretch, Crews is still a foundational piece for the Nationals. The underlying data suggests Crews is getting unlucky. His wOBA sits at a poor .263 mark, but his expected wOBA is .315. If Crews can solve his issues against breaking pitches, he still has a high offensive ceiling. These early struggles are also not surprising if you followed his minor-league career. He started slow at each level, before making adjustments and taking off.
Crews doesn’t have to be an elite hitter to be an elite player. His outstanding defensive skills are supported by both the eye test and statistics. He has made numerous outstanding diving catches and moves gracefully in the outfield. Despite not playing many games, Crews’ outs above average is at three. He seems to be an elite defender in right field, a position he is not accustomed to playing. Crews is a natural center fielder, but with center fielder Jacob Young playing elite defense, they have positioned Crews in right field. Considering how well Crews is performing defensively, it might be worth discussing moving him to center field to enhance his defensive value.
What the Future Holds for Dylan Crews
The future is still as bright as ever for Crews. He will be a starter on opening day next year, either in right field or center field, depending on the Nationals offseason. Crews still has room to grow, but he has shown flashes of being the star the Nationals drafted him to be. It is not a finished product yet, but Crews and left fielder James Wood are on their way to becoming one of the better outfield duos in baseball.
Main Photo: © Geoff Burke-Imagn Images
