Corbin Burnes has been the ace that the Baltimore Orioles have needed, but with free agency looming, what comes next for the former Cy Young winner? After their first postseason appearance in seven years ended abruptly in the Division Series, it was obvious that the Orioles needed an ace. Baltimore was linked to several starters last winter, but in February, they got their guy, acquiring Burnes from Milwaukee.
Corbin Burnes Free Agent Market
Burnes has been everything Baltimore needed him to be and then some. Outside of a few rough starts in August, the 29-year-old has been dominant. Burnes made his fourth consecutive All-Star Game and ended the regular season 15-9 with a 2.92 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 181 strikeouts. He made 32 starts for the Orioles tossing 194 ⅓ innings while holding opponents to a .226 batting average. The 2021 NL Cy Young winner also made Orioles history, becoming the first pitcher since Mike Mussina in 1992 with a sub-3.00 ERA over 190+ innings. Burnes is also the first pitcher since Jim Palmer in 1977 with a sub-3.00 ERA, 190+ IP, and 180+ strikeouts.
The only problem is that Burnes is only signed through this season and plans to test the free-agent market. Burnes will be the most sought-after pitcher available this winter, second only to Juan Soto as the biggest free-agent-to-be. An ace of his caliber will not come cheap, potentially creating an uphill battle for small-market Baltimore to extend him. Then again, the Orioles are under new ownership.
Where Will Orioles Ace Corbin Burnes Sign This Winter?
There have been plenty of predictions about how much Burnes will sign for and which teams he could sign with. New York Post insider Jon Heyman suggested the 29-year-old could get a deal similar to the nine-year, $324 million the Yankees gave Gerrit Cole in 2019. Spotrac recently released their own, predicting his base calculated value to be a $215.3 million deal over seven seasons. However, according to insiders, it is unlikely that Burnes signs for less than $250 million.
Cole’s record deal came after he finished second in AL Cy Young voting and helped lead the Houston Astros to the World Series. If Burnes can help end the 41-year World Series drought in Baltimore, a deal of that caliber seems reasonable. But even with David Rubenstein at the helm, a record-breaking pitcher contract seems unlikely in Baltimore. Two teams come to mind regarding record-breaking contracts: the New York Mets and New York Yankees.
Steve Cohen is the richest owner in baseball and is no stranger to record-setting spending. Neither are the Yankees, but their focus will be on keeping Soto in pinstripes for the rest of his career. Burnes also has a connection to the Chicago Cubs through his former manager and current Cubs manager Craig Counsell. Jed Hoyer and the Cubs front office need to make a move or two this offseason to get back into contention, and Burnes could be one of them.
Can The Orioles Keep Their Ace?
While Burnes finds testing his worth on the open market appealing, wherever he ends up, he wants to win. Last month, he spoke about his future and said he wants to play with a team with young talent. Burnes, a husband and father of three young children, also prioritizes his family and wants his team to do as well. Considering Baltimore is a tight-knit organization with more young stars than any other team, offers him exactly what he’s seeking.
However, the money will be the deciding factor in his decision. Baltimore has not signed a free agent to a multi-year deal since Mike Elias became general manager in November 2018. But that may have been because the Orioles were going through a full rebuild at the time. Now with two consecutive contending seasons, the Orioles are ready to win, and with new owners, they should be willing to spend. Keeping Burnes would allow the Orioles to remain a powerhouse in the American League, and Elias should do everything he can to keep him.
Main Photo Credits: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
