One of the most significant wildcards for the 2025 St. Louis Cardinals is undoubtedly right-handed pitching prospect Tink Hence. While his arsenal of pitches is unquestionably impressive, boasting a fastball that consistently reaches triple digits, the primary concern surrounding Hence is his durability. Injuries have unfortunately been a recurring theme throughout his young career, casting a shadow of uncertainty over his prospects.
Tink Hence’s Flame Burns Bright but for How Long?
Hence boasts an impressive arsenal of pitches, led by a fastball that consistently reaches the mid-to-high 90s, topping out at 99 miles per hour. He complements this with a devastating changeup that hits the strike zone in the mid-80s. Hence also features a slider in the mid-80s, although he has struggled with control issues in the past. A curveball remains in his repertoire, but it requires significant development.
At just 22 years old, Hence has demonstrated remarkable promise across his three minor league seasons. In 2024, he spent the entire season in Double-A, albeit with some time missed due to injuries. Despite this, Hence posted impressive numbers, including a 34.1% strikeout rate (14th-best across all minor league levels) and a 25.9% strikeout-to-walk ratio (15th-best).
As a starter, Hence made 20 appearances in 2024, compiling a 4-3 record and a 2.71 ERA. Throughout his minor league career, he has maintained a 3.28 ERA across 236 innings pitched, underscoring his potential as a dominant force on the mound.
Hence’s Concerning Injury History
A significant milestone looms over Tink Hence’s burgeoning career: the 100-inning threshold. Unfortunately, Hence has been plagued by injuries in each of his first three professional seasons, casting a shadow over his promising talent. In 2023, Hence suffered a setback that landed him on the injured list for about a month while pitching in Single-A. Despite this interruption, he managed to accumulate 96 innings pitched across both Single-A and Double-A that season, falling just shy of the coveted 100-inning mark.
Top @Cardinals prospect Tink Hence tallies a career-high 13 K’s and 26 whiffs over six scoreless innings for the Double-A @Sgf_Cardinals. pic.twitter.com/kWafF9yu3t
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) May 25, 2024
The Cardinals organization had high hopes that Tink Hence would finally enjoy a fully healthy season in 2024. Unfortunately, those aspirations were dashed when Hence was shut down not once, not twice, but three separate times during his stint with the Double-A affiliate in Springfield.
Hence’s physical frame has raised concerns about his durability. At 6’1″ and just 195 pounds, his slender build may leave him more susceptible to injury. While his height provides leverage for his pitches, his lack of bulk has sparked worries about his ability to withstand the rigors of a full season. The 2020 second-round pick’s health issues have thus far been attributed to a combination of bad luck and a developing body. However, the 2025 season will be a crucial test of whether these concerns are merely growing pains or a more deeply ingrained issue that could impact his long-term prospects.
Hence Has a Range of Outcomes in 2025
The ideal scenario for Hence is to cement a spot on the Cardinals’ roster by the end of 2025. While he has primarily been a starting pitcher, Hence’s stuff is versatile enough to translate to a high-leverage relief role. Manager Oliver Marmol may consider deploying him in this capacity, especially given the Cardinals’ recent emphasis on developing young talent. Although it’s possible Hence could break camp with the team, skipping Triple-A altogether, it remains to be seen whether this accelerated path would be beneficial for his development.
The best-case-scenario for Hence is to solidify a spot on the Cardinals roster by the end of 2025. The bulk of Hence’s experience is as a starting pitcher, though depending on team need he may break onto the Big-League squad through the bullpen. His stuff matches the profile of a high leverage reliever that manager Oliver Marmol could deploy. There’s an outside chance he makes the MLB roster out of Spring Training with the Cardinals recent commitment to developing young talent. However it remains to be seen if skipping Triple-A is best for his development.
On the other hand, the worst-case scenario is that injuries continue to hinder Hence’s progress. If he’s unable to stay healthy for the majority of the 2025 season, it won’t be catastrophic. However, the Cardinals will be facing a third consecutive year of waiting for Hence to arrive in St. Louis, which could raise concerns about his long-term viability.
Main Photo: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
