After this dismal 2024 season ends, the Pittsburgh Pirates will face decisions on three underachieving outfielders eligible for arbitration. The Pirates offense hasn’t been very offensive this year, except to their fans. Entering Thursday, among the 15 National League teams, the Pirates rank 14th in batting average, on-base percentage, and OPS, last in slugging percentage, and 12th in runs scored. The chief culprits are in the Pirates outfield.
Pirates Face Decisions on Arbitration-Eligible Outfielders
Redoubtable left fielder Bryan Reynolds is turning in his usual solid season. For the purposes of this analysis, we won’t consider Oneil Cruz and designated hitter Andrew McCutchen as outfielders. Cruz moved there recently from shortstop and “Cutch” has made just five cameo appearances in right field. With these parameters in mind, in 2024, Pirates outfielders not named Reynolds have hit .206/.275/.320, 33 HR, and 140 RBI. It’s as if they’ve had Mario Mendoza manning two outfield spots on a daily basis.
We’ll discuss only the Pirates outfielders who are eligible for arbitration. My thoughts on pending free agent center fielder Michael A. Taylor have already been addressed on these pages. Two other Pirates outfielders who significantly underachieved, Jack Suwinski and Ji Hwan Bae, aren’t arbitration-eligible. Much to the chagrin of some Pirates fans, the guess here is that both will be Pirates property next year, whether in the minor leagues or with the big club. Suwinski led the Pirates with 26 home runs in 2023. The Pirates aren’t likely to turn their back on that. Bae continues to show good on-base skills in the minors, including a .430 OBP this year. As a Pirate, he’s shown nothing to suggest he’s anything more than a Triple-A player, but the Pirates might not move on from a .430 OBP either.
Looking Ahead
The arbitration process is a curious one, and often risky for the ball club. Players can get a raise just for showing up all year and providing their team a warm, breathing body. Looking ahead to 2025, Reynolds will again be stationed in left field while Cruz will occupy center field, where he’s happy. Cruz had been on record saying that he wanted to be a shortstop. Recently, he said he doesn’t want to return to shortstop. That leaves just right field wide open. Among the competitors will be three arbitration-eligible outfielders who contributed little to the Pirates offense in 2024.
An Ordinary Joe
On the top of the list is 32-year-old Connor Joe. Besides seeing time in the outfield, he’s been Rowdy Tellez’s right-handed-hitting platoon partner at first base. The Pirates acquired Joe for a minor leaguer in December 2022. They liked his on-base skills and indeed, he came into this season with a career .343 OBP. However, so far in 2024, he’s hitting .225/.313/.367, 9 HR, and 36 RBI. Worse than that, most of his damage was done in April. At the end of April, he was hitting .292/.370/.483. Since then, he’s hit .203/.295/.328. Since August 3, he’s hit .145/.270/.307. He’s a player in decline.
Given his age and his $2.13 million salary, the guess here is that the Pirates will non-tender him and look elsewhere for outfielders, rather than risk arbitration. Right-handed-hitter Jared Triolo started at first base for the Pirates on Wednesday evening. The light-hitting Triolo doesn’t look like the answer there either, but it’s an indication that the Pirates’ brain trust may already be considering alternatives to Joe.
The Late Addition
Bryan De La Cruz, 27, has been another underperformer. Acquired at the trade deadline, he’s been 2024’s version of Ryan Ludwick or Justin Morneau, past trade deadline additions who were expected to provide power and RBI production during a pennant race but fell short of expectations. Since joining the Pirates, he’s hit a measly .201/.215/.281, 2 HR, and 14 RBI.
Since the trade deadline there have been a total of 165 qualified hitters. Of those 165 qualified hitters, Bryan De La Cruz ranks 164th with a 32 wRC+
That is just offense, tho. When you account for his total production, he ranks 165th in WAR with a -1.0 pic.twitter.com/rzH1bXESyA
— 𝐍𝐒𝟗 (@NorthShoreNine) September 19, 2024
Even so, the prediction here is that he’ll return to the Pirates in 2025. It won’t be because general manager Ben Cherington acquired him in a trade and wants to save face. Cherington has moved on from plenty of trade acquisitions who didn’t cut it. If De La Cruz is back, it will be because his 20 home runs (the total as a Pirate and Miami Marlin) would be tied for second on the team. His 2024 salary was just $768,000. Thus, it wouldn’t be cost-prohibitive for the Pirates to bring back this arbitration-eligible outfielder.
The Early Addition
Finally, there’s the 24-year-old right-handed-hitting Edward Olivares. He was acquired in a trade for a minor leaguer last December. In 55 games with the Pirates, Olivares hit .224/.291/.333, 5 HR, and 23 RBI until he was dispatched to Triple-A Indianapolis on July 9. At the start of the season, he looked like a good piece, logging three consecutive two-hit games in April. However, since April 16, he’d hit just .200/.273/.267. The Pirates showed more patience with other slumping players. I may be reading too much into it, but the fact that they gave up on Olivares so quickly tells me they don’t view him as part of their future. He’s making $1.35 million in 2024, and like the case with Joe, the Pirates may feel those dollars are better allocated elsewhere.
The Last Word
For now, rookie Billy Cook is being given a good look all over the outfield. He’s not off to a great start but has appeared unfazed by his major-league surroundings. The guess is that next spring, he’ll compete for an outfield spot with Suwinski and De La Cruz. Even so, it’s clear that the Pirates need to bring in an outfielder or two who can surpass the dreaded Mendoza line, either by trade or the free agent market. They can’t keep trotting out players like Joe and Olivares and expect anything different.
Photo Credit: © Jeff Curry-Imagn Images
