Predicting the winner of the Coach of the Year award is always a challenge. There is no set criterion, so the award usually goes to the coach whose team overachieved the most. However, overachievement, by definition, is a subjective concept. How well a team performs relative to the expectations depends on the prior expectations of each voter. Therefore, it is usually the award that has the most candidates. Despite Mike Brown of the Sacramento Kings being the deserved unanimous winner last season, there were 14 coaches (almost half of the entire league) that received votes for the award. Regardless of how difficult a task it is, I will try to make a shortlist of four candidates who are the likeliest to be finalists for the award at the end of the season.
This will be in order of the best-value bets, going from fourth best to best. All the lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Bets to Win the 2023-24 NBA Coach of the Year.
4. Erik Spoelstra +800
One of the greatest coaches of all time, and quite possibly the best active coach in the NBA today, Erik Spoelstra still somehow doesn’t have a Coach of the Year trophy in his career. This makes him a worthy candidate every single season.
If no clear candidate emerges, Spoelstra will be in the conversation by default, as a career-achievement type of award. For this to happen, the Miami Heat have to exceed expectations. Fortunately for Spo, after a miserable offseason where they lost both Damian Lillard and Jrue Holiday sweepstakes to their Eastern Conference rivals, the expectations from Miami are low. When people count them out, Coach Spoelstra and Miami are their most dangerous selves. If the Heat win in the high 40s and get a top 4 seed in the East, this could easily be Spoelstra’s award.
3. Michael Malone +900
After winning the 2023 NBA Championship with the Denver Nuggets, coach Malone established himself as one of the best coaches in the league. Coming off the title run, the confidence in Denver is sky-high. This, combined with continuity and one of the most talented rosters in the league, the Nuggets are likely going to win at least 50 games.
The closer the Nuggets get to 55 games, the likelier it is that Michael Malone will win the Red Auerbach trophy. Considering that the Nuggets are a good bet to be a top-2 seed in the West, Malone will almost certainly be a candidate for the award.
2. Taylor Jenkins +1400
The Memphis Grizzlies could benefit from lowered expectations following the 25-game suspension of Ja Morant and season-ending injuries to Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke. The over/under line for Memphis has been set to 45.5 wins, despite winning 56 and 51 games in back-to-back seasons, respectively.
Coach Taylor Jenkins has set up a system that has proven itself to work in the regular season. Their defense, anchored by the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, Jaren Jackson Jr, should continue to be elite. If anything, Morant’s absence should help their defense. This should set a high enough standard for them all season, and get them a win total in the high 40s.
If the rest of the West shakes out in a way that the Grizzlies end up as a top-4 seed, coach Taylor Jenkins will have a very strong case to win the award.
1. JB Bickerstaff +1600
Not only is this the best value bet on the board, but JB Bickerstaff should also be the favorite to win the award, regardless of the odds.
The Cleveland Cavaliers won 51 games last season and had the point differential of a 55-win team. They had the best defensive rating in the NBA. Not only did they bring back the same team, but they also added two key pieces Max Strus and Georges Niang, while presumably getting internal development from all of their core players, especially Evan Mobley. There is no reason why this team should be any worse than last season.
Considering the buzz created by the Boston Celtics and the Milwaukee Bucks in the East, if the Cavs finish over one of them in the regular season, they will attract plenty of attention. That is certainly a possibility. This team will win 50 games barring any major injuries, and if they win closer to 55, Bickerstaff has as good of a chance as anybody to take home the trophy.
