Despite the OG Anunoby extension and the Mikal Bridges trade, podcasters and NBA Twitter do not seem content with the Knicks’ offseason. The Knicks have some of the best contracts in the NBA right now, with Jalen Brunson at $24.96 million, Mikal Bridges at $23.3 million, and Donte DiVincenzo at just $11.4 million this season. But, in this era of super teams and assembling stars, some people are not content with what we have right now. Many analysts and writers alike have consistently written about Julius Randle being on the trade block, despite this saying that Randle isn’t going anywhere.
The Karl-Anthony Towns rumors have sprung right back up. Furthermore, Jalen Duren and Alperen Sengun are also being looked at as trade targets. The Knicks’ can solve their need for a backup center through free agency. Here’s a detailed analysis of why the Knicks should avoid acquiring a blockbuster name through trade.
Why the Knicks Shouldn’t Roll the Dice on a Blockbuster Trade
Salary Cap
The Knicks are already on the verge of having to make tough decisions regarding the roster. Bridges, Randle, Brunson, and Mitchell Robinson are all extension-eligible this offseason. Even though Brunson is willing to take a $113 million pay cut, the Knicks will not be able to retain all of them without making significant moves. Randle is eligible for a max contract with a ~$50 million AAV, and Bridges can sign the same deal as Brunson (or take a slight cut).
Trading for Towns or Sengun puts the Knicks in a worse position than they already are. Towns is owed $220.4 million over 4 years, an All-NBA caliber deal. Instead, he is the second option on his team and will remain that if the Knicks bring in him. Furthermore, Towns’ playoff numbers are a steep dropoff from his regular season performance. On his career Towns averages 18.8 points in the playoffs compared to 22.9 in the regular season. Randle’s playoff numbers are worse than Towns, but he does not command a similar salary.
A Sengun trade will pigeonhole the Knicks. He is a restricted free agent next offseason, and the Knicks will have to open their pockets to pay him a huge deal. Despite his breakout season last year, Sengun is an offensive hub that the Knicks don’t need. They have their own in Jalen Brunson, and adding Sengun to the Knicks will severely restrict our vaunted defense. Sengun was not a good shot-blocker with the Rockets, and he would hamper us. Adding him would definitely send Robinson to the bench, and we lose his shot-blocking and rim protection.
Assets
There is a substantial cost to bringing in a star/upcoming star. The Knicks sent out five first-round picks in the Mikal Bridges trade. Acquiring KAT, Jalen Duren or Alperen Sengun will result in a significant loss of draft capital and key players. Towns, who somehow the Knicks are interested in again, will cost at least Randle, any two of Mitchell Robinson/Donte DiVincenzo/Josh Hart, and maybe, picks. They will have to give up such value just to make the money match, and Towns is simply not worth this haul.
DiVincenzo was a most-improved player candidate last season and had a career year with the Knicks. He proved his mettle in the postseason, averaging 17.8 points while shooting 42.5% from 3. Hart was one of the best rebounders in the NBA last season and was a big part of the Knicks surviving the loss of Mitchell Robinson.
Adding on to this will be picks. The Rockets will want picks in a Sengun trade, and the Timberwolves will not let Towns walk away without getting draft capital. The Knicks cupboard is not overflowing anymore. They cannot trade any of their first-round picks, and the ones from other teams are not appealing enough.
The Last Word on Avoiding a Star Trade
More often than not, star trades don’t work out. Kevin Durant to the Suns, Paul George to the Clippers, James Harden to the 76ers/Nets/Clippers, Donovan Mitchell to the Cavaliers, and Rudy Gobert to the Wolves are just a few recent examples of trades that haven’t produced much. Out of all these deals, only Rudy Gobert has made the conference finals in the last 3 years. The Kyrie Irving trade to the Mavs is an anomaly, not the norm. Furthermore, every single player mentioned above is leagues better than Karl-Anthony Towns and Alperen Sengun.
The Knicks have to give their squad a shot. It makes no sense to trade away Randle when the team hasn’t played any minutes together. Leon Rose has proven himself as a manager time and time again, and I have faith in his judgment. But, I would not make any major moves this offseason. The trade deadline will give the Knicks enough indication of the fit. If the team doesn’t work, then make the trade. For now, keep Randle in-house and let the power of friendship reign havoc over the NBA.
