The Milwaukee Bucks have won the Central Division a staggering six times in a row. How come you never heard of that stat until now? Well, no one cares about division standings in NBA circles. That’s a topic for another day. The topic for today, though: Are the Bucks a dark horse team for the title this upcoming season?
Are The Milwaukee Bucks a Dark Horse Title Contender?
Turning Nothing into Something
The Bucks on Tuesday added Gary Trent Jr. on a 1-year veteran’s minimum. For a team with little room to maneuver due to their cap situation, they have made quality additions on bargain deals. Trent Jr. figures to slot into the shooting guard position for the Bucks. Last season, Malik Beasley was the starting shooting guard. He delivered to an extent on what was expected of him when he signed for the veteran’s minimum in 2023. Beasley shot over 40% from three for the 2023-24 season. The Bucks trusted him in clutch situations as he shot the third most field goals in clutch time on the Bucks. Unfortunately, Beasley struggled as a point-of-attack defender playing alongside Damian Lillard. He had the worst defensive rating of his career (118.3). Beasley has a good size for a shooting guard (6’5″) but his wingspan (6’7″) left him at a disadvantage defensively.
Trent Jr. is 6’4.25″ with a 6’8.75″ wingspan. That extra wingspan gives him an edge as a point-of-attack defender over Beasley. Also, there are concrete signs of his potential impact on the defensive end. He had 2.1 deflections per game last year, finishing in the 73rd percentile. This was on a Raptors team that finished 26th in the league in defensive rating. With the Raptors in 2021-22, Trent Jr. finished third in the league averaging 1.7 steals per game.
At 25, he’s not yet a finished product, so there are leaps his game could take offensively next to the Bucks’ core of Damian Lillard, Khris Middleton, and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Other Additions
The Bucks’ offseason wasn’t sexy, but it was definitely productive. Adding Delon Wright as a backup point guard helps them on so many levels. Firstly, they can move on from the Patrick Beverley brouhaha. Beverley is a good defender and an adept facilitator, but he has baggage. Delon Wright is a nine-year veteran who knows his role. He has spent most of his NBA career coming off the bench with just 85 starts.
At 6’5″ with a 6’7.5″ wingspan, he is big for his position. Wright will have an impact defensively for the Bucks. For context, his DWS (defensive win shares) was 0.9 last season. DWS is the estimated number of wins contributed by a player due to defense per season on average. Going all the way back to college, Delon was on two Pac-12 All-Defensive teams.
Taurean Prince had a down year last season with the Lakers. It’s hard to hold it against him, though, because players often disappoint in that LeBron James–Anthony Davis Lakers solar system. At 30, he is joining the better-placed Bucks and filling in a specific role off the bench. Despite Prince’s ‘struggles,’ he shot .396% from the three-point line. He’s shot the three-ball at a .376 clip for his career. He’s the prototypical 3-and-D wing. Prince’s struggles came because he played more minutes than he should have. He started 49 games last year, more than all his starts combined since the bubble. Make no mistake, he’s a solid contributor and someone who can play meaningful minutes in the playoffs.
New-found Depth
The Bucks, with their offseason additions, have one of the more balanced and deep rotations in the league. Take a look at their rotation: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis, Pat Connaughton, AJ Green, Andre Jackson, Gary Trent Jr., Delon Wright, Taurean Prince, Marjon Beauchamp. There are not many one-through-12 rotations that can match this in the league.
Jon Horst has done an exceptional job adding veteran talent to a team with limited moves to make heading into the offseason.
Star Power
In the NBA, you can only go as far as your stars can take you. Ask the Mavericks; they will tell you all about it. As the league has transitioned from a three-star model to a two-star model, the ceiling of your alpha dog(s) is ever important. The Bucks have Lillard and Giannis, who, when healthy, are bona fide top-15 players in the league.
There’s a case to be made that Giannis has become a little underrated. Here’s the best case: Giannis finished last season averaging 30.4 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 6.5 assists on 61.1% from the field goal. He became the first player in NBA history to average 30 points per game while shooting above 60 percent from the field. Yet, he finished fourth in MVP voting. Giannis got injured in a game against the Celtics which ruled him out of the playoffs. He has been inactive more or less since early April. That time to heal his body figures to help the Bucks’ chances, especially as their rivals in the East, the Celtics, have three core players representing Team USA. Giannis will have the Olympics to ramp him up to speed ahead of the NBA season, a blessing in disguise. Expect a Giannis on a mission this coming season.
Lillard is expected to have a bounce-back year. Last year was so eventful for him that his disappointments should be viewed through a prism. He changed teams for the first time in his career after spending 11 years with the Trailblazers. It wasn’t a rosy exit. It was a protracted saga over the summer that left a sore taste in the mouths of all parties involved. Doc Rivers revealed that Lillard wasn’t fit entering into training camp last year.
“Coach, I didn’t work out all summer. It’s the first time in my life that I’ve not worked out. I was so scared of getting injured working out,” Rivers said Thursday during an appearance on “The Bill Simmons Podcast.” “He knew he was gonna get traded. So, he said, ‘You know, I did some light running. I did some shooting with no one in the gym. But I didn’t go (hard) at all.’ …He was honest about it, and that’s one of the reasons you love him. He said, ‘This is the worst shape I’ve ever been in.'”
Lillard also went through a divorce during this period. In contrast to last year, Lillard will be in shape, and with an added year in Milwaukee, he will have found more stability. We could see him closer to the form he was in during the 2022-23 season, where he was All-NBA third team and averaged more than 30 points per game.
Health and Repeating History
Don’t count out a comeback year from Middleton also. He had two arthroscopic clean-up procedures on both ankles during the offseason. This was to get rid of lingering soreness in both ankles. He will be fit in time for training camp. The Bucks could be the healthiest they have been in years. Middleton reminded the NBA world of his value last season when he averaged 24.7 points for the Giannis-less Bucks in their first-round series against the Pacers. He had shooting splits of 48.2/35.5/90 while chipping in 9.2 rebounds and 4.7 assists.
Most of the core are part of the championship-winning team in 2021. These guys know how to win a championship. They have a championship-winning coach in Doc Rivers. Doc gets a lot of criticism, but he deserves credit for what he has achieved in his coaching career. He has coached teams to a 50+ win season 10 times. His teams have finished with the first seed nine times. Rivers’ teams have made the playoffs all but twice in his illustrious career. The Bucks have an experienced winning coach leading an experienced winning team.
The Bucks have finished with the best record in the Central Division since 2018 when LeBron left the Cavaliers. Their lowest win total in that span is 46 which came in the Covid shortened 2020-21 season. They have had 50+ win seasons four times in that span, never finishing lower than the third seed. This is a team that is used to winning.
Other Factors That Could Help The Bucks
Are the Bucks a dark horse title contender? They could be favorites by the All-Star break. The Celtics will be without Kristaps Porzingis for at least half of next season. Also, they are the defending champions and have targets on their backs. Going back-to-back is always tough. The Celtics could be fighting external forces and internal forces (the disease of more: people not being as ready to sacrifice for the greater good after winning an initial championship). There’s some instability at the top of the Celtics organization with a majority owner trying to sell his shares.
The 76ers are a new team after rebuilding their roster around Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. It takes time to build chemistry. There’s always the potential injury to Embiid and Paul George lurking. The Knicks have gone supernova, but they have a Julius Randle issue to settle. They also are thin at the center position and could be overly reliant on an injury-prone Mitchell Robinson.
So there is a path to the Bucks securing the first seed in the East next year and then making a deep run in the playoffs. Ultimately only time will tell.
