There have been no extensions yet for promising 2021 Houston draft picks: Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun. Notably, both players would enter restricted free agency next summer without contract extensions. What are the reasons? What are the risks? Indeed, is it possible that they are withholding one largely because of an unwillingness to entertain the other?
What No Sengun Extension Could Mean For Houston
Alperen Sengun was a 15-man roster update away from making an All-Star team last season. Jalen Green was not. So far, Sengun looks like arguably the best player from their draft despite being the sixteenth pick. Scottie Barnes has also undoubtedly impressed in his short career, making an All-Star team in 2024. He was rewarded with a max contract extension almost as soon as it was possible.
But the Rockets front office may not be overly concerned about comparisons between Sengun and the former Rookie of the Year. They may be more concerned about comparisons between Sengun and his teammate, Jalen Green. Ime Udoka‘s meritocracy may not function so well when one of the primary creators is side-eyeing his co-star, wondering why the front office is playing favorites. The trouble is that Green hasn’t done enough yet to show he’s close to being worth a maximum contract.
No Extension For Jalen Or (By Extension) Sengun?
Green did win a Player of the Month award, averaging over 28 points per game. But the month was March, that’s around the time of year when weird things start happening. People may remember what the immediate aftermath of the Kevin Durant to Phoenix trade did for Mikal Bridges‘ production. That didn’t come remotely close to carrying over into the next season. Green’s apparent surge did admittedly come while the team was competing to get back into the play-in race. But once the team actually got back in and had to play one of the other racers, Green got a bad case of cramps.
Sengun at this time was out with a season-ending injury. Naturally, that isn’t ever going to rocket up your value as an asset. Generally, though, Sengun belongs to an archetype noted for its durability. Despite obviously being a remarkably tall human being, he isn’t the total physical anomaly of an injury-prone Kristaps Porzingis. Generally speaking, at heights well in excess of seven feet, players tend not to have long, healthy careers. The Rockets know this firsthand from their experiences with Ralph Sampson and Yao Ming. In the interests of the overall novelty of the league, fans across the spectrum hope that Victor Wembanyama will prove an exception.
But the point is that Sengun doesn’t present those particular concerns. He is also counterintuitively blessed with a decidedly ground-bound game. Centers that spend a lot of their time up in the air also spend a lot of their time landing again. Every single time they do so, typically with various other players’ body parts conspiring to get in the way, they risk some kind of injury. But Sengun is more like Nikola Jokic, Nikola Vucevic, Domantas Sabonis, or even LaMarcus Aldridge. He presents just about the lowest injury risk that you can ask for in a big man. His contract extension would therefore contain minimal risk as well.
What Sengun Snatchers Would An Extension Keep At Bay?
But Houston evidently thinks they’ve found another way of mitigating the risks. Currently, there aren’t many teams projected to have much cap space available next offseason. In what could be an ominous sign of future irony, one of those teams is the Brooklyn Nets.
VERY early 2025 NBA cap space projections:
1. Brooklyn Nets: $49.5M
2. Houston Rockets: $30.6M
3. Washington Wizards: $25.2M
4. Utah Jazz: $23.9M (w/o Markkanen)
5. San Antonio Spurs: $23.2MDespite the 10% cap jump, that's it. A lot can and will change over the next year.
— Keith Smith (@KeithSmithNBA) July 13, 2024
For the Nets to be interested in such a move, they’d have to be looking to accelerate their rebuild. That would be in spite of managing to reclaim some of their own picks from Houston as a prerequisite of the Bridges trade. It wouldn’t be completely counterproductive though, since some of the picks they gave up for their year and a half or so of James Harden are still outside of their control. And why not stick it to the team that does control them instead?
But Houston may view it as an unlikely scenario, especially since the Nets still seem committed to the last survivor of their attempted super team days in Nic Claxton. Meanwhile, those other teams don’t currently project to have the capacity for a max contract offer. Of course, there are all sorts of moves that teams can make between now and then that would allow them to posture as threats to Sengun’s services. But it goes without saying that if Sengun winds up being so obviously worth a max that other teams clear space to offer him one, Houston can simply choose to match.
Worst Case Scenario
Gordon Hayward‘s departure from the Utah Jazz is a good, recent example of how that situation can go wrong for a team. When Hayward was approaching the end of his rookie deal, the Jazz made him go out and find the best offer available before they swept in to match it and retain his services. Supposedly, the ordeal contributed to Hayward’s decision to later leave the team in free agency. It’s certainly intriguing to wonder what might have been if Hayward had stayed with the Jazz. There’s a hypothetical where he avoids his disastrous season-ending opening-night leg injury whilst somehow also allowing space for the emergence of Donovan Mitchell. By not offering an extension to Sengun now, will Houston be left pondering similar (hopefully less gruesome) hypotheticals in the future?
The Last Word
Sengun has commented on the situation himself. He thus far claims to hold the front office with no ill will over the delay. His play on the court backs up that he is a player who thrives on being challenged. But with no extension (and Sengun’s slightly unorthodox fit concerns), trade rumors will stalk him all season long. Whether it sours his relationship with the organization remains to be seen. It’s even possible he’ll play himself into being an indisputable max contract player by midseason, compelling the front office to act. Houston is probably doing the sensible thing by playing it safe. It’s up to Sengun to prove that the sensible thing would be to extend his stay as long as possible.
