The Thunder are off to a great start to the 2024-2025 season. They are 3-0 and are the last undefeated team in the Western Conference. Their stifling, turn-you-over defense has kept them at this point. However, their offense is one area of concern for the Thunder right now. Last year, their offense was a top-three unit, leading the league in three-point percentage. This year, through three games, that has not been the case. They are 17th in offensive rating, posting at 109.2. In addition, they are shooting 27.6% from three, which is 29th in the NBA. They did shoot the ball better in their game against the Hawks, shooting 40% from three. However, it is a far cry from where they were last year. Today, we will be looking at the reasons why the Thunder shouldn’t hit the panic button quite yet on their outside shooting struggles.
Why The Thunder Shouldn’t Hit The Panic Button on Outside Shooting Struggles
They Have The Same Players They did a Year Ago
The Thunder are one of the few teams that kept a majority of their roster from last year. The only player the Thunder lost from last season who played high-level rotational minutes is Josh Giddey. Giddey shot the worst from three last year, shooting 33.7%, and the Thunder replaced him with Alex Caruso, who shot 40.8%. With that being said, you would think the Thunder would be one of the better three-point shooting teams again. However, that has not been the case, and the reason for that is good shooters getting off to a rough start.
Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe, Cason Wallace, and Jalen Williams all shot above 40% last season and have struggled from deep to begin this season. They are all under 35% to begin the year, with Joe and Wiggins shooting the best at 33.3%. They aren’t the only ones struggling from deep, either. Chet Holmgren is only shooting 20.0%, and Caruso is shooting 16.7%. Furthermore, the Thunder’s outside shooting struggles shouldn’t last long, as these guys should improve throughout the season.
The Thunder Are Shooting More Threes Than They Did Last Year
Another reason for this slow start on the outside is that they are trying to take more attempts than they did last year. Mark Daigneault saw last year that they led the league in three-point percentage but were in the middle of the pack with attempts. Because of this, Daigneault encouraged his players to shoot more threes, even if their efficiency was affected a little. That has been the case this year, with them shooting 38.7 three-pointers per game while they only attempted 34.2 per game last year. The increase in volume is there, but the decrease in efficiency is much more than Daigneault would like it to be.
With their increase in three-point volume, their efficiency might not ever get back to where it was last year at 38.9 percent. However, they should be able to get close to it with how many good shooters they have on the team. If the Thunder can get their shooting percentage to around 36 or 37% while increasing their attempts by about four or five, it will make them that much more deadly on the offensive end.
They are Getting Good Looks From Three but Aren’t Falling
Even with them struggling from the outside, they are getting good looks from the perimeter. Most of their attempts have been open-looks from the perimeter they just aren’t falling. Usually, when NBA teams struggle from the outside, it is because they don’t have enough shooters or they are taking a lot of bad threes. However, that has not been the case for the Thunder. This is one of the biggest reasons why the Thunder shouldn’t press the panic button and worry about their outside shooting.
They are getting good looks, whether that be through schemes, certain drawn-up plays, or the opposing team leaving guys open. However, if they keep generating these good looks and the shots keep not falling, and they get 15 to 20 games in, then it would be the time for the Thunder to re-assess things. For now, the Thunder should remain optimistic that their struggles from the outside will change with the amount of good looks they have been getting.
Isaiah Hartenstein’s Return Will Help
Finally, when Isaiah Hartenstein comes back, his presence will help them shoot better as well. Even though Hartenstein doesn’t shoot the ball from three, and may look to add some type of three-point shot this year. It is the other things he brings to the table that will allow the Thunder to get even more open looks from three. The first thing is his passing ability, as he is one of the most underrated passing bigs in the NBA. The Thunder saw a glimpse of his potential as a passer when he had seven assists in his very first game on the Thunder in the preseason. In those three preseason games he played in, he averaged 4.3 assists without playing in the second half.
Another reason will be his screening ability to open up space for shooters. Hartenstein is one of the best screening bigs in the NBA and can create a lot of space for shooters to get open looks. This is something the Thunder have not had since Steven Adams last played for them in 2020. With these two things, Hartenstein will be able to create more open shots for the Thunder, which should help their percentage.
Last Word on The Thunder’s Outside Shooting Struggles
Even though the Thunder have struggled with their outside shooting through the first three games. They have all the ingredients to be a great shooting team: they have great shooters, and they generate open looks. The Thunder have essentially the same team they did a year ago when they led the league in three-point shooting. They should feel optimistic because of that and that they can turn their poor shooting around. However, if the Thunder get 15 to 20 games into the season and they are still shooting poorly, then it may be time for them to hit the panic button, and that last year could have just been a fluke year.
