The Houston Rockets’ 2024-25 season opener is almost upon us. What will be the keys to watch out for? For most fans, it will be the performances of their newly extended star duo, Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green. Going into the season without contract negotiations hanging over their head is certain to alleviate any head-hanging mentalities. Even if the Rockets managed to dodge paying him the max, the five-year deal makes it clear, this is Sengun’s team now.
Rockets Opener Keys To Watch
Sengun’s team will play its first game against the Charlotte Hornets. It’s not exactly the most scintillating matchup from a narrative perspective. Someone had to play the Hornets though and outside of possibly the Chicago Bulls with a hopefully rejuvenated Lonzo Ball, there aren’t a huge number of narratives out there. Grant Williams’ revenge game against the NBA finalist Dallas Mavericks?
But despite their recent woes in the standings, the Hornets are a team resplendent with exciting young talent. The Rockets’ stars will have some intriguing matchups, though injuries may deprive fans of the clash’s full potential.
Sengun’s Matchup in Rockets Opener
All being well, the Hornets would have their promising young 2022 draftee, Mark Williams, at center. Williams has looked good in limited play so far in his Charlotte career. In particular, he’s had an impressively low foul rate. He seems to have figured out early that trying to block every shot usually isn’t the most effective way to protect the rim. That is unless you’re Victor Wembanyama of course, but it arguably doesn’t count when you don’t even have to try in order to block people’s shots.
Unfortunately, various injuries have kept Williams sidelined for more games than he’s been able to play. Last year, he suited up in teal and purple only 19 times and he’s played just 62 total games. Opening night doesn’t seem likely to be the 63rd.
The Williams Replacement
So enter Nick Richards, a springy young big man from Jamaica. Also, enter the definite necessity for double teams on Sengun. Even with Williams’ sound fundamentals and honed defensive instincts, the Hornets still probably would have opted to double. It was a proven strategy against Houston all of last season – double Sengun and make Houston’s shooters beat you. Or better yet, make them shoot themselves in the foot trying.
The Hornets employed the strategy in their Williams-less January matchup with the Rockets last season. Sengun was held to just seven shot attempts, though he was able to leverage the doubles to rack up seven assists. The Rockets blew out the Hornets like a 34th birthday cake, 138 to 104.
Williams had been available for the earlier Houston game in November. That game was closer than the Rockets’ 21 made threes on 56.8% shooting would suggest. There was only a nine-point advantage for the victorious Rockets at the final buzzer. The Hornets even got within five down the stretch. Sengun was relatively well contained with only 19 points and four assists. Whether Charlotte can do it again will be a big factor in the outcome of the game. The Rockets probably won’t shoot over 50% from three after all.
The Perimeter Creators
Houston’s other newly extended star will also get his first opportunity to show he’s worth the investment. Green only got three years in his deal, with the last being a player option. At $106 million in total, his year-by-year amount is close to Sengun and he arguably got the better deal from a player perspective. Essentially, he’ll get the earlier opportunity for a pay rise. That is if he can use the first two years to prove he’s worth it.
In this game, he’ll be gunning to out-duel the perimeter star power of LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller. Miller, Charlotte’s 2023 rookie selection, probably could have won Rookie of the Year in any normal season. Picking him over Scoot Henderson was viewed as questionable by some at the time, but so far, the decision seems to have paid off nicely. Despite his 6-foot-9 frame, Miller will supposedly be starting at guard in Charlotte’s opener. Of course, the distinction is largely irrelevant, particularly if they go ahead and start another guard in Josh Green alongside him. Still, a backcourt of Miller and the 6-foot-7 Ball does sound theoretically imposing.
The Teams’ Last Encounter
Green certainly got the better of them in the January matchup last season though. He put up 36 points on 60% shooting and pulled down 10 rebounds. He may have benefited more from Williams’ absence than Sengun did since Green tends to struggle with effective help on his drives.
One thing Green didn’t do in that game was match up with either Charlotte star on defense. Dillon Brooks will almost certainly grab Miller this time around as well. It would be encouraging to see Green take on the challenge of starting on Ball though. Last time the assignment went to the veteran Fred VanVleet. Of course, a player like Ball requires a team effort and a bit of luck to keep from taking over with his outlandish passing and shooting. They were able to contain him in both matchups last year, combining for 13 of 31, so the argument could be made they should change as little as possible.
The Last Word
Frankly, the Rockets would be off to a bad start to drop this opener at home to a talented but discombobulated Hornets squad. As will often be the case for Houston this season, the result will heavily depend on the team’s ability to leverage the defensive attention on Sengun. Green outplaying the other team’s stars will be another, less reliable, avenue to success. Whatever happens, fans of both teams will relish seeing their guys play NBA basketball again. The keys are in the ignition. The Rockets’ race for the play-in tournament is about to start.
