Predicting the winner of the Rookie of the Year award is the most fun prediction to make every year. Projecting prospects’ first years in the NBA is exciting, hopeful, and extremely difficult. This rookie class is especially challenging, with three blue-chip prospects in Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson, and Chet Holmgren. Any of these three players could be the odds-on favorite to win ROTY. It’s hard to see another player pulling a surprise win outside these three, but I will provide one long-shot pick at the end.
This will be in order of the best-value bets, going from third best to best. All the lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Top 3 Candidates to Win the 2023-24 NBA Rookie of the Year
Chet Holmgren +300
There is absolutely a scenario in which Holmgren wins this award. He will start on a good and exciting team this season, with plenty of attention on him. He has the advantage of being drafted a year ago, getting to know the organization, practicing with his teammates, and preparing his body for the NBA.
However, being on a competitive team could be to his disadvantage, too. He will be behind the likes of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, and Jalen Williams in the team hierarchy, at least offensively. He may have a lower usage rate than your usual second-overall pick. Therefore, he has to make the most of his impact defensively.
Even though he projects to be an elite defender, how well Holmgren will hold up physically is uncertain due to his unusual build. His minutes may be more limited than the other two candidates on this list. However, he would still be a worthy pick to win the NBA’s Rookie of the Year.
Scoot Henderson +250
Unlike Holmgren, Henderson will have an all-he-can-eat all season with the Portland Trail Blazers. This year will be all about him as he will have ample opportunity to showcase his capabilities and average a lot of points and assists. There will be times when he looks like he is the best rookie in the draft class. He could easily average 20 points and five assists per game.
Unfortunately for Henderson, Wembanyama will be the talk of the town all season. Because the Blazers will likely be bad, Henderson might fly under the radar, lowering his chances at the award. If this were any other season, he would have been my pick to win the award, but the guy at No. 1 this year is just too good.
Victor Wembanyama +100
This may be a boring pick, but it’s the only reasonable choice here. If anyone had any doubts about Wembanyama’s potential, they must have been quashed by the two dominant preseason performances where he casually dropped super-efficient 20-point performances.
He is already an excellent defender who should put up impressive steal and block numbers. This, combined with his finishing around the rim, transition efficiency, and outside shooting, will give him a ridiculous stat line to finish the season. Moreover, he will show things we haven’t seen on the court before, creating an incredible highlight compilation. This is his award to lose.
And the only way he could lose this award would be an unfortunate injury. Even if the San Antonio Spurs are super cautious with him, Wembanyama should be heavily favored to win if he manages to play at least 50 games.
Long-shot pick: Amen Thompson +2500
Outside of the elite top three, Houston Rockets rookie Amen Thompson has the best chance to win the award. It is obviously a low-probability proposition, with the odds being 25/1, but there is an outside shot for the Overtime Elite product to sneak his way into the NBA Rookie of the Year honors.
Thompson is arguably the best athlete of the 2023 draft class. He is an extremely fluid, electrifying athlete who is a menace in transition. He will score a lot of points purely by forcing turnovers on the defensive end and outrunning everyone in full court. Plus, he is an excellent off-the-ball cutter and finisher with a physicality way beyond his years.
Thompson will likely begin the season on the bench. However, if Houston falls behind in the playoff race, there is a decent chance he will move into the starting lineup. As Thompson’s minutes increase, so will his production, opening the way for a surprise run at the ROTY award.
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