It has been a rough year for the Alabama Crimson Tide coming out of the 2022 regular season. The Tide’s two losses to rivals Tennessee and LSU by a combined four points are considered incredibly disappointing, despite a 10-2 record being a dream to many other teams. Alabama has a reigning Heisman winner in quarterback Bryce Young, one of the most dominant pass rushers in the history of college football in Will Anderson Jr., and one of the greatest head coaches in Nick Saban.
Last Saturday, the Tide took care of the rowdy Auburn Tigers 45-23 in Tuscaloosa. Leading up to Tuesday’s CFP rankings and to conference championship weekend, Alabama was placed at #6. There are four power five teams playing for a conference championship and then #5 Ohio State. Weeks after being unofficially eliminated from playoff contention, the Crimson Tide are back in the hunt.
Is Alabama Back in the College Football Playoff Hunt?
How Alabama can be back in the College Football Playoff
For Alabama to be back in the CFP, they will need serious help. If #1 Georgia or #2 Michigan were to lose in their respective conference championship games, they would likely secure a spot in the final four. There is even reason to believe that #3 TCU still makes the CFP even if they lose to #10 Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship. According to ESPN’s College Football Power Index, TCU has a 92% chance to make the CFP with a 54% to win the conference.
The team with the next best odds for the CFP is not #4 USC, but instead, it is Ohio State. The Buckeyes have a 71.7% chance to be one of the final teams with the likelihood that the Trojans lose to #11 Utah in the PAC-12 championship for the second time this season. Alabama has a 14.1% chance to make the CFP, sixth in the nation. They will need TCU to lose significantly and for USC to lose to Utah.
Does Alabama Belong in the College Football Playoff?
It is not impossible for a team with two losses to be a part of the CFP. The case for Alabama to be one of the four teams to be included at the end of the season comes down to three attributes; history, quality losses, and overall resume.
Alabama has been to the CFP seven-of-the-eight times in the history of the CFP They have six appearances in the national championship game during that time and three titles. Ohio State has appeared in four playoffs with only one title.
The Tide have two losses, which is essentially unforgivable in the eyes of the playoff committee. Alabama lost to Tennessee on a game-winning field goal and to LSU on a game-winning two-point conversion in overtime. The Tide have lost by a combined four points in those losses to good to great teams. Ohio State is coming off a horrifying loss at home to their rival in the #2 Michigan Wolverines 45-23. While Michigan is, by far, a much better team than Tennessee and LSU, that loss from Ohio State is currently the latest impressive of the Buckeyes to the playoff committee.
Finally, Alabama is second in the nation in ESPN’s Football Power Index, with Ohio State at No. 3. Alabama ranked eighth in the nation in strength of schedule with Ohio State ranked 34th. The Tide have a 3-2 record versus ranked opponents, with Ohio State being 2-1 versus ranked opponents. Alabama faced Tennessee, one of the top teams in the SEC. The cross-divisional opponents from the Big Ten West that Ohio State played are teams that are at the bottom of the standings in Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Northwestern.
Should Alabama Fans Want Their Team To Be In The Playoffs This Season?
Every team wants an opportunity to contend for the CFP and a national title. Fans of the Alabama Crimson Tide understand that this is a team that has not played up to the standards of their previous title-contending teams. Even with a Heisman Trophy quarterback and several great players, there is serious doubt that the Crimson Tide has the measures to defeat Georgia, Michigan, or TCU in the playoffs. There is always a chance for Alabama when you give Nick Saban a month of preparation time, but a lack of consistency from the main coordinators in Bill O’Brien and Pete Golding has shown that Alabama does not possess a championship-level mentality.
Maybe Ohio State still possesses that mentality and had one bad game, but that game matters to the committee. So do the two losses from Alabama in the regular season. If Georgia, Michigan, TCU, and USC win on Saturday, the debate of the Crimson Tide or the Buckeyes will not matter. Until then, it is not smart to count an Alabama Crimson Tide, led by Nick Saban, out of the hunt.
