SEC’s Reduced Margin for Error: Week Three SEC Preview

Before we delve into the Week three SEC preview, let’s address the elephant in the room… and no, we’re not talking about the Tide’s quarterback situation. The SEC welcomes back conference play this weekend. This is a welcome change for the conference because the start of 2023 could have been better. The SEC holds the worst non-conference record (3-6) against other Power 5 opponents. LSU and Alabama were fashionable picks to join Georgia in the playoffs this season. However, they have responded with double-digit losses to the ACC and Big 12. With Georgia still searching for its running game, the SEC’s margin for error is razor-thin. A bad loss or multiple losses could leave the conference on the outside looking in regarding the selection committee.

*Notre Dame was an ACC member in 2020

The SEC has been a constant presence in the College Football Playoff era. Since its inception in 2014, they have always succeeded in securing at least one bid, a distinction no other conference can claim. Only once in the nine previous playoffs did the SEC not feature at least one team in the championship game. They are the sole conference to send multiple teams to the playoffs and have witnessed two of their teams facing off in the championship game twice. With most key conference matchups now concluded, it’s safe to say that the mantra “It Just Means More” should focus on conference wins this season.

Week Three SEC Slate

All times are EST. The visiting team is listed first. Lines are current as of the time of publishing. Week three picks against the spread are in bold.

Week Three SEC Preview

We had seven games up for consideration for the Week three SEC preview. We narrowed our list to five after much debate. Missouri will have its hands full against defending Big 12 champion Kansas State. Kansas State has an experienced team returning led by quarterback Will Howard, and can further tarnish the SEC’s non-conference record. Fellow Big 12 team BYU heads to Fayetteville on Saturday night. This will be each team’s first real test after playing G5 and FCS opponents in the season’s first two weeks. Look for Sam Pittman to call the Hogs against, but closer than the 9.5 that Vegas has on the line. Now, to the SEC week three preview.

SEC Preview # 1: No. 14 LSU vs. Mississippi State

LSU has little margin for error for 2023. Brian Kelly led the Tigers to an SEC West title last season, and many saw LSU taking the next step in 2023. Instead, the Tigers laid an egg in Week 1 against Florida State in its 45-24 defeat. This was Kelly’s third defeat of 20 or more points as the head coach at LSU. Kelly was critical of his team after the loss to the Seminoles in the post-game press conference. “The game of football requires a competitive edge that we lacked in the second half.” The Tigers responded with a 72-10 victory over Grambling State. Jaylon Daniels was a one-man show two weeks ago against Florida State and needs help from his supporting cast to take some of the pressure off of him. They travel to Stark Vegas to take on a new look Mississippi State team.

Mississippi State survived overtime this week, maintaining Zach Arnett’s undefeated record in his early Bulldog Tenure. The Bulldog defense stole the spotlight, forcing five turnovers in the win over Arizona. Watching Will Rogers go only 13 for 17 makes you wonder if Arnett and the Bulldogs could benefit from having the fourth-year starter throw more.

SEC Preview # 2: South Carolina vs. No. 1 Georgia

Georgia has dominated this series. They won eight of the last ten matchups by an average of 37.1 to 18.5. Despite two straight slow starts and missing running game, Georgia has cruised to two easy victories. Carson Beck has shown patience in completing over 72% of his passes on the season for three touchdowns. This game has trap game written all over it and brings to mind South Carolina’s upset of Georgia in 2019. Georgia was ranked No.3. in the nation at the time, but turnovers and sloppy play gave South Carolina enough of an advantage to knock off the Bulldogs in Athens. South Carolina’s success will fall on Spencer Rattler to stay upright. The Gamecock’s running game is existent and is reliant upon the Redshirt Senior’s arm. To be successful, his offensive line must improve its blocking. North Carolina sacked Rattler nine times in Week 1.

SEC Preview # 3: No. 1o Alabama vs. South Florida

Alabama travels to Tampa Bay this week to play an actual road game against South Florida. This marks only the fourth true road game in Nick Saban’s 17-year tenure and Alabama’s first road game against a non-Power 5 school in 20 years. Alabama lost at Hawaii in 2003. Like LSU, Alabama’s margin for error was reduced in the loss to Texas. This will provide an opportunity to find their offensive identity. Quarterback Jalen Milroe is an electric runner and could benefit from having the offense further shaped to his skillset. Too often he was forced to stay in the pocket and under duress against the Longhorns. Look for Tommy Rees to continue to shape the Tide offense to complement Milore’s skills. The SEC West appears wide-open, but the Tide must decide who they want to be.

SEC Preview # 4: No. Tennessee vs. Florida

The numbers don’t add up for the Vols. Tennessee has just two wins in The Swamp in the last 51 seasons. The Gators have won 16 of the last 18 matchups against the Vols. Despite this recent (historical?) success, Florida finds itself a 6.5 dog on Saturday night. The Gators are reeling under second-year head coach Billy Napier. They finished a disappointing 5-7 in 2022 despite having a Top 5 NFL Draft pick as their quarterback. The offense regressed further in its week one loss in Salt Lake City. Florida’s offense must be ready to move and score as they welcome in Tennessee. Joe Milton will lead a motivated Vol’s offense into the Swamp, looking to turn the tides on history. The Vols shook off a slow start and inclement weather to knock off Austin Peay last week.

SEC Preview # 5: Georgia Tech vs. Ole Miss

Ole Miss and quarterback Jaxon Dart showed its growth in its 37-20 defeat last week over Tulane. Tulane is arguably the top G5 team in the country and has shown the ability to play and beat almost any team they play. The Rebels outscored the Green Wave 20 to three in the fourth quarter to secure the win. Dart finished the day throwing for over 260 yards, two touchdowns, and just one interception. Dart has the highest passer rating in the SEC and is ranked #3 overall. He’s responded well after Lane Kiffin made a statement bringing in both Walker Howard (LSU) and Spencer Sanders (Oklahoma State) as transfer quarterbacks before Spring practice. They’ll face an improving Georgia Tech team that has shown growth and stability since Brent Key replaced Geoff Collins mid-way through last season.