This weekend we get another fun SEC matchup in Ole Miss vs Arkansas. Two programs that want nothing more than to see the other team fail. For most Ole Miss fans, apart from Mississippi State and (maybe) LSU, Arkansas is likely the most hated program in the country. The disdain runs deep.
If you need more evidence, the rivalry goes deeper than the football field itself. Arkansas week means plenty of things for Ole Miss fans. For some, it means no trips to Wal-Mart for a full seven days. That happens when Wal-Mart’s headquarters are a mere 30 minutes from the Arkansas campus. After all, you can’t support the enemy.
For others, it means a week of no bacon. Their mascot is a Razorback (pig). That’s fine, but why give them the satisfaction of knowing they’re named after a delicious animal? You simply can’t do it.
Oh, and it’s a chance for Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin to compound on his first signature win last weekend against LSU.
So, with that understanding, let’s dive into what happens in this year’s edition of the bitter rivalry.
What To Expect
Arkansas’ Offense
For the Razorbacks, it’s going to end up being a matter of outscoring the Rebels. Of course, that’s always the goal, but with the way the Arkansas defense has played, expect a lot to be put on their offense.
The good news? If they take a page out of LSU’s playbook, they certainly have a chance. K.J. Jefferson’s style at the quarterback position isn’t that far off from how LSU’s Jayden Daniels likes to play the position. With that being said, it’s worth noting that in two games against the Ole Miss defense, including last weekend, Daniels has thrown for 662 yards and six touchdowns. He’s also run for 220 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. In other words, he’s a one-man machine against the Rebels.
The key for Jefferson, a senior from Sardis, MS, is to take advantage of the Ole Miss secondary. That’s what Daniels did last week, and it’s what Jefferson and the Hogs should game plan around. In two starts against the Rebels himself (’21 and ’22), Jefferson has thrown for 494 yards. He’s also run for 132 yards in those games. While not bad numbers, in order to keep pace with the Ole Miss offensive attack, his production is likely going to need to be better.
If he can do that, there’s a chance. If he struggles, it could be a long trip to Oxford for the Razorbacks.
Arkansas’ Defense
It sounds basic, but there’s really only one sentence that’s needed for the Arkansas defense heading into this matchup. Play better than they have this season. They’ve struggled immensely over the past three weeks, and that has to change if they want to slow down what can be a quick-strike Rebel offense.
In their three games against Power 5 opponents this season, the Hogs are 0-3. They’ve also given up 30+ points to all three teams (BYU, LSU, Texas A&M.) That’s called a defense that’s reeling. Now, going up against an Ole Miss offense that saw the re-emergence of Quinshon Judkins last week, as well as multiple playmakers on the outside, it’s simply a matter of slowing them down. It’s going to be tough to shut them down completely. But slowing them down is a reasonable task.
If the Hogs defense can keep the Rebels offense in the 20s, there’s a really good chance they head back to Fayetteville with a win.
Ole Miss’s Offense
Move quick. That’s the key.
Against an Arkansas defense that’s struggled this season, you have to be able to put them on their heels. Big plays. Chunks of yards. Make a statement early, and keep them guessing the rest of the way.
For instance, the game plan for this one should be opposite from what Kiffin typically wants to do. He’s primarily a run-first kind of guy. In this one, he should lean heavily on the pass, at least early on. Allow Jaxson Dart to throw the ball downfield. Once the Rebels establish that the offensive line can hold up against the Arkansas defensive front, that’s when the rushing attack comes into play. Dart hitting on one or two deep passes early opens up running lanes for Judkins and Ulysses Bentley IV.
Last week against LSU, Dart threw for 389 yards and four touchdowns. The numbers this week shouldn’t need to be quite that high, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt matters. Similarly, Judkins ran for 177 yards last week. Bentley added 90 yards of his own.
The balance is the key for this Ole Miss offense. Start through the air, and end with chunks of yards on the ground. If the Rebels can keep that balance, there’s a great likelihood of success against an already shaky Arkansas defense.
Ole Miss’ Defense
Keep everything in front. And don’t miss tackles. That just about sums it up for this Ole Miss defense. After four games of doing those two things reasonably well, they finally got exposed last week. Despite the win over LSU at home, the defense got shredded. Against a similar offense, the result could be the same this week.
With Jefferson weighing 247 pounds and being elusive, not missing tackles becomes all the more important. Ole Miss should be willing to let him throw the ball. If they can keep him in the pocket, it’s been a successful evening for the Rebel defense. Expect Jefferson to throw for 250+ yards, but if he’s held to fewer than 50 yards on the ground, the Rebels likely win this ballgame.
Ole Miss vs Arkansas: The Bottom Line and Prediction
Points will be scored in Oxford on Saturday night. But it likely won’t reach the 55-49 levels from just a week ago.
Against an Arkansas defense that is reeling and hasn’t looked great over the last three weeks, expect Ole Miss to try to jump on them early, just to send a message. As long as Dart makes good decisions and takes care of the football, the Rebels should be able to do just that.
However, on the flip side, LSU just gave the Hogs the blueprint on how to expose this Ole Miss defense. Expect Arkansas to take advantage of that, and look to throw the ball early and often. Against a Rebels secondary that is oftentimes shaky in coverage, this should also be possible, and likely.
In the end, too many weapons on the offensive side of the ball, and a raucous home crowd, manage to push Ole Miss over the hump. This game stays close for three quarters, but the Rebels defense gets a key stop early in the fourth quarter. The offense then manages to put the game away.
Ole Miss 41, Arkansas 31
