Cincinnati fell last weekend to UCF in what was the most competitive game the team has played in weeks. A late comeback fell short, and the losing streak extended to seven games. That’s currently tied for the second-longest losing streak in the country with Kent St. and Louisiana-Monroe, trailing only Vanderbilt’s eight-game skid. Cincinnati now travels down to Houston for a Saturday evening matchup with the Cougars. There are just three games left this season for the UC, who have already been officially eliminated from bowl eligibility. This one is almost definitely the most winnable. Houston sits at 10th in the Big 12, 4-5 overall, and 2-4 in conference. However, of the four new teams in the Big 12 this year, Houston sits highest in the standings. Here’s a preview of the Cougars and what Cincinnati can do to get in the win column.
Houston Offense vs Cincinnati Defense
The Cincinnati secondary had a solid performance last week as it held UCF quarterback John Rhys Plumlee to just 165 yards in the air on 13 completions. Redshirt freshman Kalen Carroll got the start at the corner position opposite Jordan Young. The two held down the outside pretty well. Safeties Antwan Peek Jr. and DJ Taylor mixed in more and made solid contributions.
The Houston offense is led by quarterback Donovan Smith, and he’ll give this secondary all it can handle. Smith ranks toward the top of the conference in most key passing stats. He’s thrown for over 2,300 yards, 18 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. His number-one target is arguably the top Big 12 receiver this year. Samuel Brown leads the whole conference in yards and receptions with 54 grabs for 764 yards. Assuming Carroll gets the nod again this week, he and Young will need to do their best to keep tabs on Brown come Saturday night.
When it comes to running the ball, Houston isn’t the most successful, and they opt to throw it much more. The Cougars post just 118 rushing yards a game and hand it off just 44% of the time. Smith is very much a dual-threat guy; in fact, he leads the team in carries with 98 on the year, good for over 250 yards and another team-high five scores. He will make plays on the ground. Parker Jenkins leads the team in rushing yards with 350. The Cincinnati rushing defense was supposed to be what was relied on all year, and it was up until about two weeks ago. In the last two games, opponents have gained 315 and 228 yards on the ground against the Bearcats. It’ll be a key point to prevent the lackluster Houston rushing game from getting going in this one.
Cincinnati Offense vs Houston Defense
Many Cincinnati fans are calling for the Emory Jones experiment to end. It was widely thought that Redshirt sophomore quarterback Brady Lichtenburg would rival Jones’ playing time last game. Lichtenburg did lead the third and fourth series of the game, the first ending with a punt and the second with an Xzavier Henderson fumble. That was all for him, though, as he finished with just 50 yards passing. Jones did play adequately in comparison to previous weeks in this one, as he threw for 217 yards on 16 completions. Head coach Scott Satterfield said in a presser this week that he expects to play Lichtenburg a bit more going forward. A more even split might be coming as soon as this week.
The Houston pass defense ranks 107th in the country, giving up 255 a game through the air. The secondary is led by AJ Haulcy, who leads the team in tackles with 66. Isaiah Hamilton and Malik Fleming both have three interceptions this year as well.
The Cincinnati run game continues to execute weekly. The return from Ryan Montgomery last week was great, as he tallied over 100 yards on just eight carries. The Bearcats are currently the fourth-ranked rushing offense with 225 yards per game on average. Corey Kiner has back-to-back 100+ yard games. The Houston rushing defense allows 160 yards a game; that’s good for 82nd ranked in the country. Linebackers Malik Robinson and Jamal Morris anchor the second level for the Cougars.
Keys to the Game
Slow Down Nelson Caeser
It shouldn’t have taken this long to mention Big 12 sack leader Nelson Caeser. The Houston defensive lineman has been wreaking havoc on opposing quarterbacks all year. The big fellas upfront for Cincinnati will have to be ready to counter Caeser and keep the jersey clean of whoever is playing quarterback on Saturday.
The Turnover Battle
The Cincinnati defense is one of the worst in the country when it comes to forcing turnovers. With just four interceptions and five fumbles recovered, it ranks in the bottom 10 or so in most categories. Houston takes care of the ball pretty well. It’s thrown seven interceptions and lost just two fumbles this year. Taking care of the ball on offense and turning Houston over would be a major factor if the Bearcats can pull off a road win.
Outlook
With a trip to West Virginia and a home game against Kansas coming up, this game against Houston is Cincinnati’s best chance to get a conference win. The Bearcats come in as 2.5-point underdogs, with the total set at 55. Season goals are pretty much out of reach at this point for Cincinnati, but ending the year on a high note with a win or two can be a huge boost going into the offseason.
