Returning a preseason Heisman candidate this season, North Carolina fans anticipated big things from their Tar Heels team that won nine games a year ago. On the other hand, West Virginia fans expected very little. Indeed, the Mountaineers entered the season with Head Coach Neal Brown squarely on the hot seat. Both squads finished their respective 2023 campaigns with eight wins, but, as we are previewing Duke’s Mayo Bowl matchup, only one of those teams seems excited about the result. We expect that excitement to carry over into a win for the West Virginia Mountaineers. ESPN will televise the game on December 27, 2023, at 5:30 p.m. ET.
Who Suits Up?
Every year around this time, teams head into bowl season with big question marks surrounding who will play and who will sit. With players declaring and preparing for the NFL draft and entering the transfer portal, the question matters. This year, it may determine the outcome. Specifically, North Carolina’s signal caller Drake Maye announced he was sitting out after declaring for the NFL Draft. Linebacker Cedric Gray and wideout Tez Walker joined him. Center Corey Gaynor will also sit out the bowl game. Several others, including John Copenhaver, Will Hardy, and Zach Rice will be out due to injuries.
On the Mountaineers’ side, they lose Zach Frazier and C.J. Donaldson to injury. They also lose Justin Johnson, Mike Lockhart, and Hershey McLaurin to the transfer portal. Otherwise, West Virginia should see most of its starters and its key rotational pieces suit up tomorrow night for the game.
UNC’s Weaknesses
The Tar Heels enter the game without the two-year starter Maye and their top wideout. They are also down a couple of tight ends. Further, they enter the game without their starting center who sprung plenty of blocks for their top-shelf running back, Omarion Hampton, who ran the ball inside the guards plenty during his impressive 1400-yard campaign this year. Defensively, they work without two of their top four cornerbacks and their best defensive weapon, Gray. These losses will certainly hamper what was already the Tar Heels’ biggest weakness: their defense.
UNC’s Strengths
All is not bad for the Tar Heels, however. As noted above, Hampton had a stellar campaign averaging over six yards per carry over the season. Hampton can also catch the ball out of the backfield. He piled up 16 total touchdowns in 2023. Additionally, despite losing their starting center, four of the five starting offensive linemen return. Running the ball and protecting their freshman quarterback Conner Harrell will prove UNC’s biggest strengths.
WVU’s Weaknesses
The Mountaineers are also thin in their secondary. They enter the game with just five healthy scholarship cornerbacks, and they rotate just three. They are also down a couple of safeties from an already-depleted unit. If they cannot bring pressure, they may have a hard time shutting down the Tar Heels passing offense, even with freshman Harrell calling the shots. West Virginia enters the game without two starters in the trenches. Frazier will be missed offensively, and Lockhart contributed plenty to the Mountaineers’ front defensively. The Mountaineers are also down both their leading rusher Donaldson and a backup in Johnson. They have two running backs with significant experience left, and just one more (freshman DJ Oliver) on the roster.
WVU’s Strengths
Despite missing its leading rusher, West Virginia still fields Freshman All-American Jahiem White. Indeed, Donaldson’s advantage over White for the 2023 season was just six yards. Donaldson had nearly 75 more carries than White. In addition, White’s efficiency numbers were impressive, as he averaged over eight yards per carry on the season. Additionally, the third-leading rusher, quarterback Garrett Greene, will also suit up and lead his team. Finally, like the Tar Heels, West Virginia will start four of its top five offensive linemen.
Despite favoring the run (it dials up a run nearly 65% of the time), West Virginia has had great success on the long ball, finishing the season with the highest completion rate on passes thrown over 20 yards. The pieces that make that work will all suit up.
What to Make of the Duke’s Mayo Bowl
There are reasons to believe either of these teams will win, but we think momentum matters. The Mountaineers won four of their last five games. The Tar Heels won just two, one against mid-tier FCS team Campbell. North Carolina has also lost three straight bowl games (and three of four under Head Coach Mack Brown). In short, it seems that West Virginia has much more to prove (and thus play for) than the Tar Heels. In previewing Duke’s Mayo Bowl, we believe the game should feature plenty of offensive fireworks. That said, the Mountaineers’ defense will make just enough plays to prevail, giving West Virginia its first nine-win season since 2016.
