On Monday, Last Word rolled out the first part of our Big 12 win totals predictions for the 2024 season. Now we turn our attention to the rest of the conference. It is in this half we find two teams who have to hurdle double-digit wins to cover their totals. With the talent gap razor thin for most of the conference, is there someone worth laying hard-earned money down on to win at least 10 of its 12 games? What about the two other teams who have seen their Big 12 win totals drop since February? All totals referenced are listed on FanDuel.
2024 Big 12 Win Total Predictions Part Two
Kansas: Over/Under: 8.5
Lance Leipold has the best Big 12 quarterback returning for the upcoming season. There is one big concern though about Jalon Daniels and that is his ability to stay on the field. In his four-year career with the Jayhawks, Daniels has never had a regular season in which he played in more than eight games. His total regular season games played by season are seven, six, eight (one bowl game start makes it nine total games), and three. The only way Kansas can win at least nine games is if Daniels can play in at least 10 games, mainly because Jason Bean is gone. Health history is hard to turn a blind eye to. The Jayhawks will be tough when he is on the field, but getting to nine wins is a big ask with such uncertainty as the quarterback position.
The Pick: Under 8.5
Kansas State: Over/Under: 9.5
We find our first Big 12 win total where a team has to reach double digits to cover the over. The Wildcats have 27 wins in their last three seasons and there isn’t any reason they should hover below that average this year. All signs point to sophomore quarterback Avery Johnson helping elevate this offense, even with the loss of their offensive coordinator and three starting offensive linemen.
On the other side of the ball, they return 13 of 18 defenders who played at least 300 snaps in 2023. There are some tricky spots on the schedule this year. Also, head coach Chris Klieman has never won more than 10 games in the regular season during his five seasons in Manhattan. They are one of the favorites in the Big 12. However, taking to the bank at least 10 wins seems too tall of a task in a tightly contested conference.
The Pick: Under 9.5
Oklahoma State: Over/Under: 8.5
Last Word tried to help everyone out in February pointing out how low the Cowboy’s win total was. Enough of the public must have seen it because their total has risen from 7.5 to 8.5. They have the best linebackers in the Big 12. Let’s not forget they have the reigning Doak Walker Award winner Ollie Gordon returning to their backfield. The offensive line also returns essentially unchanged from last year. However, quarterback Alan Bowman still has not done a great job of protecting the football (14 interceptions in 14 games). Their schedule is very front-loaded opening with the two-time defending FCS national Champion South Dakota state. After that, their next four games are against Arkansas, Tulsa, Utah, and Kansas State. Mike Gundy cannot afford for his Cowboys to get off to a slow start to cover their Big 12 win total this year.
The Pick: Over 8.5
TCU: Over/Under: 7.5
Will the real TCU please stand up? College football national runner-up to missing a bowl game, the Horned Frogs have covered both ends of the spectrums in Sonny Dykes’ two seasons in Fort Worth. With such stark outcomes for seasons, it is hard to get a good read on who TCU is at the moment. Last season, the biggest issues were getting to the quarterback and defending the pass. But the Horned Frogs have plenty to be positive about in the passing game on the offensive side of the ball.
Quarterback Josh Hoover flashed at times in 2023 and has quality talent and depth in the wide receiver corps. However, the biggest issue on offense is rebuilding a new offensive line, which is replacing four starters with five players from the transfer portal. When a team is portal-ing a new offensive line, it is not a great place to feel good about the prospects of gelling quickly and holding up for the entire season.
The Pick: Under 7.5
Texas Tech: Over/Under: 7.5
The Red Raiders are the most glass half-empty/full team of the Big 12 heading into 2024. Quarterback Behren Morton is extremely talented and extremely injury-prone. He is also playing behind a brand-new offensive line (see the note from TCU about portal-ing an offensive line). They also are replacing its top three wide receiver targets from 2023. So maybe all of those are good reasons that their opening Big 12 win total dropped from 8.5 to 7.5.
However, they do have one of the best running backs returning to the Big 12 in 2024 in Tahj Brooks. The receiving corps has been revamped via the transfer portal and five-star wide receiver Micah Hudson, is going to start week one as a true freshman. The team has tremendous continuity with both the offensive and defensive coordinators entering their third season with head coach Joey McGuire. Texas Tech’s schedule is also extremely favorable as all 12 opponents had a combined record of 69-79 in 2023.
The Pick: Over 7.5
UCF: Over/Under: 7.5
Gus Malzhan appears to be a renewed head coach down in the Sunshine state. He was bringing in quality talent and showed well in the Knight’s debut season in the Big 12. However, the public must know something Last Word is missing. UCF’s Big 12 win total dropped from 8.5 to 7.5. But transfer quarterback KJ Jefferson seems to be the perfect fit for Malzhan’s offense. R.J. Harvey belongs as the best running back in the conference conversation. It is not the offense that will have problems lifting off in 2024.
Seven full-time starters are gone on defense and Malzhan brought in 12 transfers who were at least part-time starters on their previous team). But they do have a defensive game wrecker in Lee Hunter and could build major momentum with a 4-0 start to the season. Last Word is going to trust the Gus Bus to drive over seven wins.
The Pick: Over 7.5
Utah: Over/Under: 9.5
The other Big 12 favorite faces the same double-digit request to cover their Big 12 win total in 2024. Utah is hoping 2024 is a re-do of last year. Last year was the Utes’ opportunity to three-peat as the Pac-12 champions. However, the injury bug took out key pieces like quarterback Cameron Rising, tight end Brant Kuithe, and Micah Bernard for most/all of the 2023 season. Before 2023 (and excluding 2020) the Utes had at least 10 games in three consecutive seasons. Rising, Kuithe, and Bernard all return looking to establish themselves as the dominant program in the new-look Big 12. Head coach Kyle Whittingham has his program running like a well-oiled machine. Assuming the injury bug stays away, this team is going to the Big 12 title game in year one.
The Pick: Over 9.5
West Virginia: Over/Under: 6.5
Last Word, like much of the college football media, had major doubts about Neal Brown going into 2023. We are not doing that this year. Quarterback Garrett Green averaged 16.4 yards per completion to complement a powerful rushing attack. Three starters along that offensive line return, with two others who started at least three games last year. This team did struggle to defend the pass last season. They are hoping that was addressed with the addition of six defensive backs that arrived via the portal. The schedule is a gauntlet for the Mountaineers with Penn State, at Pitt, Kansas, at Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Kansas State, and Arizona on tap for 2024. However, Green should continue to progress and help West Virginia clear the seven-win hurdle
The Pick: Over 6.5
