The Texas Longhorns rumbled into Ann Arbor and gave the defending champs a veritable ‘running of the bulls.’ The Michigan Wolverines lost a regular season game for the first time in 1043 days. They lost for the fourth time in four years. That’s the long and short of it: they lost.
It’s their fourth loss in four years. One of those losses was Michigan State in 2021, AKA the Kenneth Walker Game. One was to TCU in the 2022 Fiesta Bowl, wherein Michigan almost pulled it out despite two pick-sixes. Georgia in the 2021 playoff is the last time this team looked truly outgunned.
And boy, did they look outmatched today. It’s an unfamiliar feeling for Michigan fans of late, but one with which they would inevitably be reacquainted. There’s plenty left to salvage on the 2024 calendar, but the nature of this loss was significantly deflating.
Additional immediate takeaways from this marquee Big Ten-SEC clash:
Texas Is Legit
First and foremost, give the winners their flowers.
Fresh off a playoff appearance and a smackdown of Colorado State, the Longhorns delivered a statement victory over the defending champs that will boost their chances at a return to the postseason. Quinn Ewers, especially, looks like the real deal. He has shades of Baker Mayfield to his game – a hair below ideal size for the position but great pocket mobility, quick decision-making, and excellent touch on short and intermediate passes. He took what the defense gave him and then some, to the tune of 67% completed passes, 6.8 yards per attempt, and three touchdowns. Game ball to that man.
Steve Sarkisian’s scheme played to Ewers’ strengths and avoided Michigan’s. Plenty of quick throws and outside runs effectively mitigated Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant’s presence in the middle of the defense. Sark took a minute to get up and running in Austin. But after struggling in 2021 and 2022 he appears to have broken through and laid a solid foundation for the program. His October 19th showdown with Georgia will be a fascinating opportunity to plant a flag in the SEC.
Michigan Seems Like It Doesn’t Know What to Do with Alex Orji
There’s game-planning and there’s season-planning. Based on we’ve seen so far, it would be generous to give Michigan the benefit of the doubt and call Orji’s deployment ‘season-planning.’ Two games and a handful of scattershot snaps have already made Orji’s presence a tell. If he’s in the game, it’s either a handoff or a QB run.
It’s a green light for opponent defenses to load the box because Orji has not demonstrated any passing proficiency outside of last week’s pitch-and-catch touchdown to Donovan Edwards. Are the coaches saving it for ‘the right time?’ More likely, with the data we have thus far, the coaches don’t trust him to uncork it. To be clear, that’s completely fair, but the play-calling in the meantime is burning downs on telegraphed Orji snaps. Those downs are precious when this offense’s best chances at success are low-variance time-of-possession rock fights. Those battles rely on holding the ball and eating clock to rest your defense so they can keep games close. The Iowa Method, one might say.
If there’s not an effective Orji deployment in the offing, it may be time to shelve it and reevaluate. The team’s inability to recruit/transfer/prepare an heir-apparent to J.J. McCarthy is now glaring. Davis Warren was a walk-on, and Orji was a developmental prospect. If these struggles continue and Jadyn Davis’ fall practice hype is founded, it may be time sooner rather than later to give the freshman a spin. This would allow the team to start planning for the future, plus a general reset on expectations. Speaking of which…
It’s Time to Reset Expectations
In dissecting the loss, it’s important to remember what else Michigan has lost. Namely, 18 starters, an all-timer of a head coach, and program legends at quarterback, running back, nickel, and two offensive guards.
The offense is a bigger issue than anyone could have anticipated. Quarterbacking is the most obvious sore spot, but no receiver save Colston Loveland has emerged to consistently bail Warren out. The lack of any threat through the air will continue to allow defenses to tee off on Donovan Edwards and Kalel Mullings on the ground.
Calling this a ‘championship hangover’ feels inaccurate with all those personnel losses. This is a brand new offense currently bordering on inoperable due to (lack of) quarterback play. This is a brand new head coach trying to balance a continuation of program identity with the emergence from his predecessor’s shadow. Just two games into the season, predicting 10-2 already feels like wish-casting.
With what we’ve seen so far, a more realistic bar for success would be clearing seven wins. There are now likely losses to USC, Oregon, and Ohio State. It’s not hard to find another L in the schedule if this offense can’t make hay.
But The Sky Is Not Falling…Yet
Coming into the season, the vibe was one of prolonged bliss after years of Sisyphean ‘rolling the ball up the hill’ to no avail. This loss will sting and send the coaching staff back to the drawing board to find long-term answers. And yet, the season is young, as is Sherrone Moore’s coaching tenure. Jim Harbaugh took his licks for six years before his 40-3 run culminated atop the mountain. These things take time – time that Moore has earned to be able to find his footing.
A first-year head coach must be allowed to learn from losses like these. How he responds will be more important to this team’s long-term growth than how he managed one game against a superior opponent.
Next week should be a get-right game against a likely overmatched Arkansas State team. Offensive growth of any kind will be a welcome respite after today’s floundering.
