It’s homecoming week for the 3-4 UCF Knights as they look to end their four-game losing streak against the 7-0 and 11th-ranked BYU Cougars. The game will take place on Saturday at 3:30 pm ET at FBC Mortgage Stadium and air on ESPN. Let’s take a look at the matchup.
Homecoming Blues
One of the best times of the season for schools is homecoming week. UCF has one amazing tradition, Spirit Splash, where students and others run into the reflecting pond and have a party. That’s done on Friday with the game on Saturday. With the game the next day and the season’s progress being well below expectations, fan apathy is a potential issue. There are a lot of BYU fans in Florida and they are going to have plenty of opportunities to buy tickets to the game. If the game gets out of hand, it could become a BYU-centric crowd. UCF’s recent history of homecoming games has been pretty good. They lost against West Virginia last year but won every homecoming game from 2017-2022. The Knights have been tough to play in the confines of the Bounce House. Will that trend continue? The last time the two played in Orlando, UCF won 31-24. UCF fans prefer not talking about the Boca Raton Bowl in 2022.
Who Are the BYU Cougars?
The BYU Cougars are an interesting football program with a unique history. They’ve done it all. Over the years, they have 23 conference championships. They have a Heisman Trophy winner in Ty Detmer. They won a national championship in 1984 and their mascot, Cosmo, is one of the coolest ones out there. Really, look him up on YouTube. They’re coached by Kalani Sitake, who has been the head coach since 2016 and has been very successful over the years. BYU joined the Big 12 with UCF in 2023.
Throughout 2024, BYU’s offense has centered around Jake Retzlaff. In Big 12 conference play, Retzlaff has been consistently good for around 220 yards passing a game, but his wide receivers have dropped far too many passes this year, including a 10% drop rate by leading receiver Darius Lassiter. Due to the higher drop rate, Retzlaff’s completion numbers sit below 60% with seven interceptions. Retzlaff can tuck the ball and run, but running back LJ Martin is the primary ball carrier. Last week against Oklahoma State, he had his first career 100-yard game. The Cougars are not a run-heavy team. They are second in the league in points per game at 34.9 points, which is tied for 23rd in the country. BYU’s strength is in its scoring defense, which is 26th in the county at 19 points per game.
UCF’s Offense
After a couple of weeks of question marks, the quarterback situation has been settled for now and Jacurri Brown is the guy. Brown struggled badly as a passer against Iowa State, but the truth is that the Cyclones’ pass defense is a top-five unit. Brown isn’t the first quarterback that was humiliated in the air. On the flip side, Brown’s running ability was on full display, running for 154 yards and two touchdowns on only 13 carries. With another week of working with the first-string offense and playing at home, Brown should feel more comfortable throwing the ball. 40% passing against the Cougars is not going to cut it.
We also saw the revival of UCF’s running game in the first half against Iowa State. RJ Harvey went off for 178 yards and two touchdowns before UCF’s much-maligned offensive line’s run-blocking success cratered. In the second half, Harvey ran it nine times for 18 yards. The line is going to have to do better. UCF’s offense, if you discount the one-yard drive as a result of a Braeden Marshall pick-six that was dropped outside the endzone, only scored 21 points. Against BYU, UCF’s offense is going to do better. It’s unreasonable to expect the defense to create two touchdowns like they did last week.
UCF Knights vs BYU Cougars Predictions
Last week, the Knights were on the verge of one of their biggest upsets but lost the lead in the last minute. The Knights had Jacurri Brown as the only quarterback and while his passing numbers struggled against a top-five pass defense, his legs worked very well. UCF head coach Gus Malzahn named Brown the full-time starter going forward, and Brown has been working with the first-string offense. This should help with some of the chemistry issues the team has been working on. UCF will once again need to find a way to score early and be consistent in the end zone. The Cougars know how to score and the Knights cannot afford more redzone ineptitude.
BYU seems to have a weird relationship with Vegas as the betting lines have not been favorable to them this season. As of the writing of this article, UCF is a two-and-a-half-point favorite. UCF should be able to exploit some of BYU’s defensive weaknesses to keep in the game. The Cougars will still find ways to put points on the board. I have the Cougars 31-24. This will be the fourth matchup between UCF and BYU with the Cougars leading the series 2-1.
