In 2023, as Michigan football ramped up toward the end of the season, the Wolverines faced a series of would-be spoilers. Penn State, Maryland, and Ohio State in succession tried (and failed) to derail the eventual champs.
This year, Michigan is on the other side of the equation. The Wolverines get to play the flawed, hopeful spoiler staring down a series of likely playoff contenders. First up in that regard are Dan Lanning’s Oregon Ducks, the third new Big Ten member to face the Wolverines this Fall.
It’s the second time this season that Ann Arbor will host a top-two program. The last time around was not so great for maize and blue fans. Texas came to town and stomped the defending champs with a performance that portended Michigan’s season-long offensive struggles.
The bad news is simple: Oregon is the number-one team in the country. The Ducks will likely mirror Texas and defenestrate Michigan. With that in mind, let’s see if we can find some good news.
Oregon’s Offense: Scissors Beats Paper
The Ducks have the best quarterback in the conference, two of its better offensive tackles, a great running back, a star slot receiver, and an offensive coordinator who loves to scheme all those pieces into an exciting, explosive attack.
Other than that, not much to worry about.
Levity aside, even with the Wolverines’ strengths on defense, it’s hard to see this being much besides a butt-whuppin’. Dillon Gabriel is in the Heisman conversation for a good reason. He has 18 touchdowns to just five interceptions and can run to boot. Backfield mate Jordan James has 800 yards at just under six yards per carry, and slot speedster Tez Johnson already has 63 catches for 638 yards and eight touchdowns. Given Michigan’s tackling woes, look for coordinator Will Stein to get Johnson the ball with swing passes and screens, giving him space to operate and make defenders look foolish. All told, it feels like doom for Michigan’s prospects on this side of the ball.
A key for Michigan to find any success: get off the field on third down. We know the formula at this point. Opposing offenses sustain drives, tire out Michigan’s star players up front, then get to waltz comfortably through the rest of the game against a tired first-team and inferior second-team. You’d love to see Wink Martindale chill out with the Third Down Weird Stuff. And yet, it’s doubtful anyone is holding their breath on that front.
Michigan’s Offense: More Progress, Please
This unit finally seemed to take a step forward last week against the Spartans. Kirk Campbell’s play-calling and personnel usage started to make sense. The results saw an offensive line take baby steps forward in front of two quarterbacks empowered to play to their respective strengths. Davis Warren and Alex Orji will both take snaps this week. It’d be nice to see the scheme evolve to put them on the field together. It keeps the defense guessing, rather than telegraphing run/pass based on who’s taking the snap.
Last week’s successes against Michigan State’s middling defense must now find purchase against a far more difficult Oregon front. Coordinator Tosh Lupoi has his charges holding opponents to 15.6 points per game. Other than shootouts with Boise State (34 points) and Ohio State (31 points), the Ducks haven’t allowed anyone else to score more than 14.
Defensive tackles Derrick Harmon and Jamaree Caldwell will be centerpieces, both literally and figuratively. Harmon is a former Spartan who faced Wolverine beat-downs in 2022 and 2023. He’ll have a chip on his shoulder coming into this matchup. Michigan’s interior line has been shaky, to say the least. Oregon’s tackles have a good chance to blow up the run game and force Michigan to compete through the air – a dubious scenario for the maize and blue.
Michigan’s key here is fundamental: control the ball. Chew up the clock and force the Ducks into a slow-motion slugfest. If Michigan is going three-and-out and giving the defense no rest, this will be over by the second quarter.
Takeaways And Touchbacks
Oregon’s offensive success is a “when,” not an “if.” When the Ducks score, can Michigan answer? If they don’t, can Michigan capitalize? Bending, but not breaking, would go a long way towards Michigan’s chances to upset. Hold the Ducks to a few field goals (to go along with inevitable touchdowns), and try to win the turnover battle.
To that end, Will Johnson‘s presence in this game is huge. If the star cornerback can play, it sure would be a good time for one of his patented pick-sixes. If not, Michigan will need playmaking in the secondary from somewhere else. Numerous players have been in a position to make big interceptions this year – Makari Paige, Quinten Johnson, and Jyaire Hill come to mind. If they’re in that situation at any point on Saturday, drops are not an option. Hit the JUGS machine and break out the Stickum.
Lastly, a final key for Michigan: Tommy Doman needs a get-right game. If Michigan is controlling the ball and getting off the field on defense, the third leg of that formula is forcing the opponent to face a long field as often as possible. Doman’s punts of late have consistently fallen short or gone haywire. It puts Michigan’s defense up against painfully short fields. If he can shake off the yips and pin the Ducks deep in their side of the field, it gives the Wolverines a fighting chance.
The Bottom Line
The data, and the eye test, both point to this one going against the Wolverines. Oregon’s offense is multifaceted, well-run, and extremely talented. The defense isn’t quite at the same level, but it’s still a top-20 unit according to SP+. Michigan’s 2024 offense has been stifled by worse.
Lanning’s Ducks look destined for the playoffs with a very real shot at taking all the marbles. Michigan’s coming to the table in this one with not much more than hope. They Wolverines will hope to play mistake-free, turnover-forcing, clock-controlling football. Without that, this one will probably be over quickly and have Oregon in cruise control by the third quarter.
Predictions:
- Kalel Mullings takes a minute to rev up but bounces back from a disappointing MSU game to get 100 yards and a score.
- Warren and Orji combine for 200 yards passing and 75 yards rushing, mostly accrued when the game is out of reach.
- Gabriel doesn’t play in the fourth quarter.
- Oregon 34, Michigan 16
