Big Noon Kickoff identified the importance of the Texas Tech week 11 showdown with Colorado. From a stakes standpoint, it is the biggest game that both Joey McGuire and Deion Sanders have had in their early careers at their respective programs. The loser of this game is eliminated from playing in the Big 12 conference championship game (barring absolute anarchy). So what is the defining factor for the Red Raiders in taking down the 20th-ranked team in the country?
Texas Tech Week 11: Running On Tahj Time Against Colorado
Big Challenge For Pass Defense
Texas Tech’s defense has improved all season, but that doesn’t make it a great unit. They are still 132nd in pass defense, surrendering an average of 307.2 passing yards per game. Tim DeRuyter has seen his defense start to make more plays in the backfield, both sacks and TFLs, in recent weeks. But the Red Raider defense still ranks only 126th in sacks per game, averaging only 1.22 a game. Unfortunately for Texas Tech, the opposing offense has just the thing to exploit these glaring weaknesses.
Colorado has the nation’s eighth-best passing offense, averaging 323.9 yards a game. Part of that is that they aren’t even interested in rushing the ball. But it more so has more to do with the elite quarterback and skill talent the Buffalos have. It starts with quarterback Shedeur Sanders. He has a 73.3 completion percentage and a touchdown-to-interception ratio of three-and-a-half to one. Sanders has three excellent receivers to distribute the ball to Travis Hunter, Jimmy Horn Jr., and LaJohntay Wester. They also do an excellent job of keeping drives alive, ranking second in the Big 12 in third-down conversions. The Red Raiders have to minimize the explosiveness of this Colorado passing attack if they expect to win. But the key factor in this Texas Tech week 11 matchup lies with the Red Raiders’ best player.
Best Player Takeover
In a game with stakes this high, coaches lean on their best players. For this specific game, it needs to serve as a statement game for running back Tahj Brooks. Brooks is looking to become Texas Tech’s all-time leading rusher against Colorado. He needs 121 rushing yards to break Byron Hanspard’s career record. Brooks has grabbed his fair share of national attention. He ranks fifth in the FBS with 130.9 yards on the ground per game. Brooks became only the third Red Raider all-time and only the ninth rusher in Big 12 history to reach the 4,000-yard mark in a win over Iowa State. As great as Brooks has been, this has to be his best game of the season.
Brooks has had plenty of big moments this season for the Red Raiders. But there has not been a game yet where he has “taken over.” Brooks’ career high in carries in a game is 33 in 2023. He had 32 in a win over Cinncinati early in the season. Given the noted challenge facing the defense, keeping the ball out of Sanders’ hand is a requirement for a Red Raider victory. It would require offensive coordinator Zach Kittley to yield what he wants to do in the passing game to more ball control. But this would be the change-up needed for back-to-back upsets of ranked teams. The Red Raiders have not defeated a ranked opponent in consecutive games since defeating No. 4 West Virginia and No. 21 TCU in 2012. Brooks needs to carry the ball 40 times for another meaningful November win for McGuire.
Texas Tech Week 11 Prediction
In addition to Big Noon coming to town, this will also be the debut of the Mahomes Strategy uniform. Needless to say, there will be major electricity coursing through Lubbock and inside Jones AT&T Stadium. With a win over Colorado, Texas Tech would guarantee three consecutive seasons of at least five Big 12 victories for the first time since joining as a charter member of the Big 12 in 1996. The end of the calendar year has also been good for McGuire. Texas Tech is 7-2 in the month of November under McGuire. It all sets up for a banner evening for the Red Raiders.
Colorado’s offensive line has been better this season but is still letting most teams put pressure on Sanders. But this task is going to prove to be too much for the Red Raiders. Kittley is going to want to throw the ball often enough that Brooks won’t reach 40 touches. The teams likely will combine for two, no more than three punts in this game, and the scoreboard operators are going to get plenty of work. But the Buffalo will roam through Lubbock and pick up a critical victory in the conference title race.
Colorado 45, Texas Tech 38
