Last week, Last Word asked if week 11 in the Big 12 would serve as an elimination week for some possible contending teams. Sure enough, two teams (Texas Tech and Iowa State) said goodbye to any possible Big 12 hardware this season. But they weren’t the only ones down after last week. The actual picks had a rough week. While the money line selections went 3-3., both against the spread and totals went 1-5. Completing the complement sandwich though is that the one total that went right was a lock. Turning to the Big 12 week 12 winners, half of the games have spreads greater than one touchdown. In a coin-flip league, does this set up a team for a big letdown spot? All lines are courtesy of FanDuel.
Season Totals
Against The Spread: 38-54
Totals: 48-43
Locks: 3-9
Big 12 Week 12 Winners
Houston (+1.5) At Arizona
The Big 12 week 12 winners get started late Friday night with two teams coming off a bye week. One team has some renewed positive vibes in their building. Meanwhile, the home team has seen this season unravel and crater from preseason expectations. Arizona has not won a game at home since September 7th in a 22-10 victory over Northern Arizona. Because both teams are coming off bye weeks, that advantage is a wash. Houston is just the better team right now, so it’s surprising to see them as a slight underdog in this one. Back Willie Fritz’s Cougars to make it a third straight victory.
Utah At #17 Colorado (-11.5)
There may not be a hotter team right now (with apologies to BYU) than Deion Sanders’ Buffalo squad. Colorado has won six of their last seven and could easily be undefeated in conference play. After taking down Texas Tech on the road, Colorado returns home to prepare for a 10 am local kickoff. They welcome a scorned Utah team that has lost five straight games. Kyle Whittingham also lost his third quarterback Brandon Rose for the season with an injury suffered against BYU. Utah’s defense should be able to slow down the Buffs high-speed offense a little. But with Issace Wilson back under center for the Utes, the offensive woes will continue and Colorado should cover the biggest spread of any in the Big 12 week 12 winners.
Baylor (-2.5) At West Virginia
Dave Aranda’s team has made the biggest mid-season turnaround of any of the Big 12 teams. Baylor has won three straight and played the top two teams in the conference in one-score games. This game comes down to which West Virginia team is going to show up in Morgantown. Neal Brown is only 2-3 at home this season, with only one win coming against a FBS opponent. Meanwhile, they are 3-1 on the road and very easily could be 4-0. Unfortunately for Mountaineer fans, with Baylor getting two weeks to prepare, the Bears will edge out the home team in a high-scoring game.
Arizona State (+9.5) At #16 Kansas State
The disrespect continues for Arizona State. Last Word called on the playoff committee to rank Arizona State this week and they did not hear our call. This week, the Sun Devils have a chance to make themselves unavoidable to the nation. Running back Cam Skattebo has been seen practicing this week, but is still questionable heading into this game. In what is the biggest game for Arizona State this year, if Skattebo keeps practicing, he is going to play. As great as this season has been for Kenny Dillingham’s team, having to go on the road to take on a rested Kansas State team still in the thick of the conference title race is going to be too much to overcome. Arizona State should be able to score enough against the Wildcats to keep it within the number, but Kansas State will get the needed home victory.
Cincinnati (+8.5) At Iowa State
Given how hard Iowa State has regressed in the last three times we have seen them on the field, laying over a touchdown seems way too steep for Matt Campbell’s team. Cincinnati controlled the ball all day against West Virginia but were doomed by turnovers. Iowa State is the most banged-up team in all of the Big 12. Kansas torched a very good Cyclone defense last week, but Cincinnati doesn’t have the same playmaker at quarterback that the Jayhawks do. Scott Satterfield’s team has shown enough progression to keep this one close, but Iowa State ends the two-game losing streak in what should resemble more of a rock fight than a football game.
Kansas At #6 BYU (-3)
While the committee missed the cries for Arizona State, they did finally provide some deserved respect for one of only four undefeated teams in FBS football. The Big 12 week 12 winners conclude with some after-dark action in Provo. BYU looks to continue its magical season, but they must deal with a Kansas team that has found some renewed confidence. Their offense has been clicking, and for the first time this season, they did not blow a fourth-quarter lead (even though it got dicey for a moment) against Iowa State. BYU has to make sure this game doesn’t turn into a track meet because they are not built offensively to win that way. But behind the home crowd with playoff aspiration on their mind, the Cougars locked down Kansas’ offense and just pushed on to 10-0.
