Alabama will face Oklahoma on the road in a hostile environment this week after the blowout win over Mercer. There’s not much to be taken away from that win. They dominated a significantly weaker opponent as they should. Oklahoma is also considered a weaker opponent with how they have played recently. Not long ago they were ranked in the top 15. But they have lost four out of five with the only win coming against Maine. In those four losses, they were outscored 125 to 49. The most recent loss before a bye week was a devastating one to Missouri on a fumble return for a touchdown in the final minute. Alabama can’t take them lightly though.
Advantage Defense
The Bama defense’s arrow has been pointing up. They dominated the last three games holding opponents to 20 total points. There is no reason that shouldn’t continue. Oklahoma scores 25 points per game which ranks 91st in the country. It’s the worst offense in the SEC, ranking last in yards per game and passing yards per game. Plus they are bottom three in rushing yards per game. The feature back is Jovantae Barnes who’s had a solid season with 700 yards from scrimmage and seven total touchdowns. He is the one true weapon and the only player on the roster with more than 350 yards from scrimmage. If the Crimson Tide defense can contain him, that will put them in a great position to win.
Inconsistent QB Play
The Sooners’ quarterback play has been below the line all year. They have teetered back and forth between Michael Hawkins Jr. and Jackson Arnold. Arnold is the current starter and he’s been inconsistent, to say the least. In his last game against Missouri, he went 15 of 24 for only 74 yards, an abysmal 23.4 QBR, and the fumble that cost them the game. He averaged 210 passing yards the three games prior while throwing five touchdowns and zero interceptions. The game before that he only threw for 54 yards, no touchdowns, and a pick. Arnold has some mobility having rushed for 238 yards on the year, but only 2.2 yards per carry. He most likely won’t beat Bama that way, so the focus will be on stopping the pass.
Turnover Threat
They leaned on the defense early in the season when the team was more successful. But when the offense has no consistency the defense will eventually wear down and that has been the case. The defense is in the middle of the pack in the SEC in most of those same categories. Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer spoke about the Oklahoma defense during his press conference.
“A physical football team all around. Their defense I think is an extremely tough defense in all ways. Just what they do with their scheme. And then their personnel. The way they fly around.”
It’s clear he respects them. That could be because the one area in which they have thrived is turnovers, which has been an issue for Bama. The Sooners have only six interceptions on the year, but they have forced 13 fumbles and recovered 11 of them. The team has 32 sacks, so the Alabama offensive line must protect Jalen Milroe to avoid sack fumbles.
Offensive Questions
The offense has been decent when they are avoiding turnovers. They are top five in the SEC in total yards per game, third in rushing yards, and seventh in passing yards. But they are second in points per game, scoring 39.5 while only giving up 16.9. By those stats, they have been dominant. But the offense has not been tested much in the last month. The only true competitive team they faced was LSU. That was an impressive win, but even in that game most of the success came from long runs by Milroe.
They have struggled in games where he didn’t flourish on the ground. The toughest stretch the Crimson Tide had this year were the games when Milroe couldn’t get his run game going. He’s obviously been successful through the air and has two great targets in Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard. But they haven’t had to rely on the passing game in a while. So if they need to, can they?
A Good Spot
Alabama could have their hands full with the Oklahoma defense. Early in the season, the passing game was contingent on big plays. That hasn’t been the case as much recently. DeBoer did say in his press conference that he thinks Milroe has figured out how to be the best version of himself for his team.
“He’s back in a really good spot with trusting the guys around him. There’s been a little more continuity with the practice and the skill players, offensive line. There’s just been more of that. And he’s become more comfortable in understanding what our team needs from him to win SEC football games.”
Preparing for a Playoff Run
DeBoer’s confidence in his quarterback seems to be at a season-high. They are in the enviable situation of playing the easiest stretch of the season. It’s probably the easiest of any of the teams still vying for the SEC title game. But that could also be a bad thing. With Oklahoma and Auburn left to play, Alabama will have only played one legitimate opponent over the last six weeks in LSU. That’s helping the postseason chances. But is it properly preparing them for a playoff run? Hard to say and they might not truly know until it’s too late.
