The figurative goalposts have moved from week to week in the past month for LSU. Once a team with playoff hopes, the Tigers are now desperately trying to finish the season on a high note. The coaching staff is aiming to return intact in 2025 and keep its star-studded recruiting class in place. However, the circumstances surrounding the game won’t matter when LSU hosts Vanderbilt on Saturday night. Considering the pressure on Brian Kelly to win his last two regular-season games, Vandy couldn’t have come at a worse time.
Clark Lea, Vanderbilt’s head coach, and Kelly’s former defensive coordinator, has changed the perception of the academically inclined Commodores. Vanderbilt no longer folds at the first sign of adversity. The team plays with an edge and expects to win. It doesn’t hurt that the transfer portal has blessed the ‘Dores with Diego Pavia, their best quarterback since Jay Cutler.
LSU Hosts Vanderbilt
Tough Matchup
In terms of taming a disappointed and impatient fanbase, there’s a lot to lose for LSU against Vanderbilt. Even with the Commodores’ recent success, most don’t appreciate how good they really are this year. An LSU win would be met with entitled yawns. A loss on Saturday would add fuel to the fire for the ever-growing “fire everybody” crowd.
The LSU coaches are tasked with ignoring the external factors to prepare their team for a nightmare of a matchup between the white lines. Vanderbilt’s offense excels in the areas that give the Tigers the most problems. Pavia is a competitive, elusive quarterback who runs the offense to perfection.
The constant triple option looks from the shotgun challenge defenses to play disciplined with dives, jet sweeps, and quarterback runs. Make no mistake, Vandy’s success is not solely due to its scheme. Running back Sedrick Alexander runs tougher than his size would suggest, and the receivers are excellent blockers downfield.
There’s no reason to believe that LSU will neutralize this style of rushing attack at this point in the season. If the Tigers can play assignment-sound football and slow down the run, they’ll face the challenge of pressuring Pavia in passing situations. His athleticism and accuracy on the move will put constant stress on the LSU defense.
The Vandy offense is built to play keep-away more so than put up explosive numbers. Even in its SEC wins, Vanderbilt only averages 310 total yards per game. At the same time, the ‘Dores only have one loss by more than four points.
LSU’s Counter
The bad news for an LSU offense that struggles to generate explosive plays is Vanderbilt’s zone-heavy defense doesn’t allow many big plays over the top. However, there will be opportunities for Garrett Nussmeier to regain his confidence with easy completions. The Commodore defense is not overly impressive up front, so Lea adds numbers to the box to make up for what’s usually a talent discrepancy in the conference. Consequently, Vandy’s defensive backs play mostly off coverage and will concede some completions. The key for Nussmeier is to remain patient with what the defense gives him.
Kelly was more involved in the LSU offense against Florida, and it led to more of a commitment to the run game. Despite the loss, this adjustment was a positive step for the Tiger offense. The threat of the run helps Nussmeier as well as the young interior offensive linemen in front of him. The next step in LSU’s season-long evolution of its run game is to stick with what works. Be it outside the zone, gap scheme off tackle, or dives inside, force Vanderbilt to adjust to successful plays. Do the world a favor and remove zone reads with Nussmeier from the playbook.
Gut Check
Believe it or not, there is good news for LSU. The effort was there against Florida. The execution was dreadful at times, particularly on the offensive line and at safety. But the team played with pride. That resilience must remain to come out with a win against Vanderbilt. Another intangible factor that could alter the direction of the team is confidence. One has to wonder if the team truly believes in itself since the Texas A&M collapse. A few positive plays at home could spark its confidence.
This game could speak volumes to the future of the Kelly tenure. The program is in a better place today than it was when Kelly arrived, but nobody will care after a home loss to the Commodores. Regardless of the starting point, a four-game losing streak is not representative of the expectations at LSU.
Sure, the talent level isn’t where it needs to be, but we think it’s better than what the team has shown lately. Teams don’t beat South Carolina and Ole Miss without talent. There are upperclassmen in the LSU locker room who need strong finishes to improve their chances for a future in football. Concurrently, some coaches aren’t ready to move their families to a new city. In the end, the Tigers will have just enough ability and motivation to survive and win a one-possession game against Vanderbilt.
