When Saturday rolls around, it will have been 1,827 days since Ohio State bested Michigan on the football field in The Game. Since 1952, it’s the the second time Michigan had gone four years without losing to Ohio State. Sure, the 2020 game was canceled, but the point remains. In comparison, Ohio State has had four such instances, going 4-0 from 1960-1962, 3-0-1 from 1972-1975, 7-0 from 2004-2010 (technically 6-0 because the 2010 season was vacated), and 8-0 from 2012-2019. There is only one feeling from Ryan Day and his squad: Ohio State must beat Michigan.
On paper, this doesn’t look like a titillating matchup. One team is all but penciled into the College Football Playoff. The other is going to just be happy with a Music City Bowl bid. However, The Game is not played on paper. In the 119-game history, Ohio State has come into The Game as the higher-ranked team and lost 15 times. In 11 of those games, the Buckeyes were top-five and had a shot to win the National Championship. Oddly enough, since 1995, it’s happened seven times and in five, Ohio State was the second-ranked team in the country.
It is the fourth consecutive season that Ohio State enters The Game ranked number two. All eyes will be on Day and the Buckeyes. If there is going to be a year where Day gets the Michigan albatross off his neck, it’s this year. And yet, he’s not taking it for granted.
No More Talk. Ohio State Must Win “The Game”
Exploit Matchups
Remember those games where guys like Parris Campbell and Chris Olave took short crossers for long touchdowns? There may be another opportunity this week. Through 11 games, Michigan has allowed 222.3 passing yards per game, good for 73rd in the country. Credit where it’s due, the Wolverines held both Northwestern and Illinois to fewer than 100 passing yards. Of course, Illinois did win that game.
One of the biggest keys to the game will be how Will Howard responds to the blitz. Michigan defensive coordinator loves to blitz. He had a reputation in the NFL and brought it with him to Ann Arbor. According to Pro Football Focus, Howard has posted an 80.4 grade with 14 touchdowns while completing 74 percent of his passes against the blitz this year. Michigan will sell out to rattle Howard with the blitz, thus opening up opportunities for Emeka Egbuka, Jeremiah Smith, and Carnell Tate. While the defense is different than it was in the Don Brown era, this may be a similar result with Martindale’s proclivity to the blitz.
Reload the Silver Bullets
On defense, it’s going to an immovable object versus a very stoppable force. The Michigan offense heads into The Game with the seventh-worst offense in college football. The Wolverines are slightly below the median at 70th in the country in rushing offense but its passing game has been rough. Davis Warren leads the seventh-worst passing attack in the nation. Ohio State’s defense is statistically the best in the country and has allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards. Even then, the 151.7 yards per game looks even better when you remember Oregon carved up the secondary for 341 yards. Take out that outlier, Ohio State’s passing defense has allowed 132.8 yards.
Michigan’s offense does not open it up, they are more of a dink-and-dunk sort of attack. The Buckeyes’ tackling will have to be what wins the game. In years past, the tackling was an issue. Kalel Mullings is a formidable running back and Colston Loveland has the ability to take over a game at tight end. However, he may be limited due to an injury sustained last week. Jim Knowles has ramped up the blitz himself. Since that Oregon loss, Ohio State has blitzed on at least 35 percent of plays and has logged 18 sacks in five games. Indiana’s passing attack was rendered wholly useless and that was a team averaging 276.5 yards per game. Ohio State held them to 68.
Keep Up The Good Work
The Game isn’t played on paper and there is absolutely a timeline where Michigan wins this game. That timeline features a game-wrecking performance by the Wolverines’ defensive line.
The Buckeyes did well to quiet a stout defensive line against Indiana but Michigan’s will be closer to Oregon’s in terms of sheer ability to disrupt the game plan. Mason Graham is a finalist for what feels like every defensive award and has been a freak of nature on the interior. His running mate is no slouch, either. Kenneth Grant is the type of defensive tackle you hope your favorite NFL team is not bad enough to be in a position to draft.
Those two have Michigan’s hopes secured squarely on their shoulders. With Ohio State re-working the offensive line after losing its two best blockers, questions do remain. It played well against Indiana, as a whole. There were a few lowlights, notably by right guard Tegra Tshabola, that derailed drives. Tshabola, Carson Hinzman, and Austin Siereveld are going to be under a microscope against two NFL-bound tackles.
Don’t let Michigan’s overall defensive struggles lull you into a false sense of security. Led by Graham and Grant, Michigan’s run defense is fourth-best in the country.
Against Indiana, the Buckeyes struggled up the middle and in short-yardage situations. To counter, the Buckeyes drew up some off-tackle and stretch plays that allowed TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins to get into space to utilize their elusiveness. It’ll have to be more of the same here. Running into the Graham-Grant wall is not a winning formula.
Who Steps Up?
The Game is all about who takes over the game. The season is there for the taking, so who steps up to etch their name in the history of the sport’s greatest rivalry?
Egbuka, Smith, and Tate have prime opportunities to have an Olave-like performance where they just take over the game. Michigan will be without Will Johnson yet again, so there will be open receivers. Get Smith the ball in space and watch him work like Ja’Marr Chase when he made Martindale’s defense look silly with the Baltimore Ravens. Indiana held him in check by assuring he was doubled on each play. Legitimately, the Hoosiers had a corner and safety over the freshman when he was the lone receiver with three on the opposite side.
Defensively, it may be time for Jaylahn Tuimolou and Jack Sawyer to truly play to their billings. Of late, the seniors have stepped up. Against an incredibly weak offense, they will have the chance to take over as Sawyer did against Missouri and Tuimoloau did against Penn State two years ago. It also feels like Cody Simon and/or Sonny Styles are poised to have a big game. With Michigan’s run-first offense, the linebackers will be keyed in and will be coming downhill at the snap.
No More Talk
This is it. This is the reason players come to Ohio State and Michigan. The last three years have been torture for Ohio State. Three National Championship-worthy teams were beaten. The comparisons to the John Cooper era continue to ring loudly. This Michigan team may be the worst full-season Michigan team since the Rich Rodriguez era.
A trip to Indianapolis is on the line. It looks like Day is truly getting the gravity of the matchup. If his Buckeyes smell blood in the water, don’t expect them to let up. The issue is getting to that point. This is an uber-talented Ohio State roster against a reeling Michigan team. No excuses. Win The Game.
