Can The Mountaineers Bring Momentum To Morgantown?
After a win over Virginia Tech and a close loss to Oklahoma, West Virginia looked to have momentum early in the season. Losses to Texas Tech and Baylor, however, left the Mountaineers reeling after their bye week. Through takeaways and solid offensive line play, West Virginia recaptured some of that early-season allure with a recent win over TCU. This Saturday, they return home to face the Iowa State Cyclones. The question is can the Mountaineers bring momentum to Morgantown? We will find out when the game kicks off at 2:00. ESPN+ will televise the contest.
Can The Offensive Line Maintain Its Momentum?
Teams win or lose games in the trenches. This oft-repeated phrase rings no less true today than it did 50 years ago. In these teams’ last two games, the West Virginia offensive line played poorly. The results were predictable. In 2020, Iowa State mauled the Mountaineers 42-6. West Virginia racked up just 54 yards on the grounds to Iowa State’s 236. Iowa State also tallied three sacks and made Jarret Doege uncomfortable in the pocket all game. In 2019, the Cyclones also won convincingly, 38-14. In that game, Iowa State totaled three sacks and held West Virginia to just 41 yards on the ground.
Last week, the offensive line played one its best (if not its single best) game in the last three years. Doug Nester looked much better without the cast on his arm. Zach Frazier played the most complete game of his career. Wyatt Milum took a big step forward in his young career, too. As a result, the Mountaineers averaged over five-and-a-half yards per carry while amassing 258 rushing yards against TCU. The line also kept the pocket clean on over 90% of Doege’s drop backs.
That said, the TCU defense measures in the bottom half of the Big 12 this season. As a result, questions remain. Was the performance inflated by the competition, or was this a leap forward for the unit? The question may not be fair. After all, West Virginia played vastly inferior competition against LIU and managed fewer than four yards per carry and, embarrassingly, the offensive line could not get the push needed to get first downs with less than a yard to gain. As a result, we cannot simply say, “well, TCU was bad, so we should discount the performance.” The line looked better, and they played with a mean streak. After the game, Head Coach Neal Brown specifically remarked that the offensive line took the criticism personally and knew they had to prove themselves.
The question that does remain, however, is this: can the offensive line maintain its momentum against Iowa State’s top-tier defense? If West Virginia hopes to win this game, they will need every push they can get.
Has A True Number Two Emerged?
The split of snaps and carries between West Virginia’s running backs last week amounts to one of the most positive developments from last week. We have consistently focused on the volume of snaps and carries Leddie Brown has taken, and we expressed concern routinely that the Mountaineers could not sustain that pace. Enter Tony Mathis. Where he previously logged just nine carries over six games for 25 yards, Mathis ran the ball 12 times for 48 yards against TCU. It might seem minimal in the box score, but we also witnessed a fresh Brown in the second half for the first time this season. He looked like the healthy Brown of 2020, exhibit patience waiting for lanes and accumulating yards after contact on many of his runs.
Time will tell whether Coach Brown sticks to this script, but it looks like the staff found a winning recipe. At the very least, they have a plan that maximizes the late-game potential of their most proven veteran player. The question, to us, remains whether the staff will stick to this script even if the team finds itself falling behind early.
Can The Takeaways Continue?
West Virginia nearly doubled its takeaway total through its first six games in one night against TCU. Without those takeaways, we have a hard time seeing the Mountaineers pull out of Fort Worth with a victory. The same will be true against Iowa State.
The Cyclones run an efficient offense led by two of the best offensive weapons in the conference. As a result, they average less than a single turnover per game. On the other hand, Iowa State plays a fundamentally-sound defense that works to minimize chunk plays. In playing that way, the defense minimizes the focus on creating turnovers. They prefer to beat you on down and distance. As a result, they average just one takeaway per game. In fact, last season’s matchup offered this very script. Neither team turned the ball over, and Iowa State still won decisively.
If West Virginia wants to win this game, it needs to win the turnover battle. That will not be easy. Charles Woods had two takeaways last week, and his profile coming into the season suggested that this was precisely the type of player Coach Brown recruited. If we find a way to put him and others in a position to create turnovers, the Mountaineers can keep the game close enough to win. Otherwise, the fact is that Iowa State is playing its best football of the season, and they will be hard to stop.
In short, this is how we answer the question, “can the Mountaineers bring momentum to Morgantown.” If the offensive line can build on its solid play, Mathis can ease Brown’s burden, and the defense can manage a takeaway or two, then maybe they can. If not, we see this script favoring the Cyclones pretty heavily.
