On Friday night, the Huskies will kick off for the final time inside Husky Stadium this season. This game is significant for Washington with UCLA in town. Just two games are remaining. All five wins have come at home, and a sixth on Friday would mean bowl eligibility. With a road trip to Oregon looming on Thanksgiving weekend, Friday is the Huskies’ best opportunity to reach that sixth victory.
To begin its season, UCLA went through one of the toughest four-game stretches in the sport. It lost four straight to Indiana, LSU, Oregon, and Penn State. Three of those programs are now ranked within the top five nationally. UCLA began the season 1-5 but has since put together three-straight victories to get in the conversation of bowl eligibility along with Washington. For the Bruins, Friday’s game is just as significant in terms of postseason eligibility.
UCLA On Paper
When you evaluate UCLA on paper, advanced metrics would suggest a vast margin between it and Washington. On the season, UCLA’s success rate on offense is a mere 39.5% which ranks 103rd nationally. Washington’s success rate is 20th in the country at 45.4%. On a per-drive basis, UCLA is 99th in net EPA at -0.42. Washington is 16th in the country at +1.11.
But UCLA is not playing on paper. Its performance in the last three weeks does not reflect what the season-long advanced metrics suggest. UCLA’s previous three games were against Iowa, at Nebraska, and at Rutgers. A week ago, the Bruins posted a 42% success rate against Iowa. It was 44% against the Cornhuskers and 58% at Rutgers. Each one of those is up compared to its season average. In terms of available yards percentage, UCLA gained 79% against Iowa, 66% at Nebraska, and 79% at Rutgers. The Bruins’ season average is 45%.
In these same three games, the UCLA offense has performed above its average on late downs (third and fourth down). Success on late downs is defined as gaining a first down. Against Iowa, UCLA had a 64% success rate on late downs. At Nebraska, it was 46%, and at Rutgers, it was 64%. The team’s season average success rate on late downs is 47%. Of late, the Bruins have found ways to move the sticks, extend drives, and ultimately win football games. Right now, UCLA is playing its best football offensively.
Pass Defense Opportunity
Despite that recent momentum, there will be opportunities for the stingy Husky pass defense on Friday night. There are only six quarterbacks who have thrown more interceptions than Ethan Garbers this season. The UCLA signal-caller has tossed 11 interceptions in eight games played. The Bruins’ success on late downs is impressive, but their average yardage in third-down situations on the year has been 7.3 yards to go. That certainly qualifies as a “passing down,” and that’s exactly what UCLA has done in those spots. Against Iowa, it threw the football 13 times on late downs compared to just one run. At Rutgers, it was similar, throwing on 10 late down situations compared to four runs. The Bruins have found themselves in must-throw situations lately. They’ve just been good at converting.
But this is where Washington can change things. The Husky defense is far better against the pass than it has been against the run. Its pass defense rates in the 95th percentile in yards allowed per dropback, success rate against, and pass EPA per play. If Washington can get UCLA into these similar passing situations, performance history suggests that Steve Belichick’s defense will create pass breakups and interceptions on Friday.
Keeping Rogers Clean
We saw a flash last week at Penn State of what the Husky offense could do to help create passing opportunities. On the opening drive, Washington drew up several quick-hitting pass plays to avoid pressure. Rogers was three of four on that drive and moved the team into field goal range in 13 plays. He also switched up the snap count to draw a defender offsides and showed composure early. It wasn’t sustained as Penn State forced a negative game script from Washington for the duration of the contest. But a similar mentality on Friday could be significant. When kept clean, Rogers has a 77% completion percentage, which is seventh best in college football.
The Bruins’ havoc rate is low. At 10.4% on the season, it ranks in the bottom half of the nation. Havoc is defined as a play in which the defense records a tackle for loss, forced fumble, or pass breakup. UCLA had a season-high seven quarterback hurries and seven tackles for loss against Nebraska. But in its four other games dating back through the beginning of October, it had just six hurries and eight sacks total.
Window of Opportunity
Washington has not thrown a passing touchdown since the Iowa game in mid-October. The team’s best game through the air was against USC two weeks ago. Will Rogers did not throw a touchdown there, but he averaged 10.5 yards per completion and wasn’t sacked or hurried all evening. Friday night could be a similar opportunity for Washington.
If the Husky offensive line can keep the pocket clean, there’s going to be down-field openings against the UCLA defense. In recent weeks, we saw Iowa and Nebraska find success on deep throws. Iowa connected on five passes of 15 or more yards with a backup quarterback. That includes two 30-yard passes and a 59-yard pass. Nebraska’s quarterback hit five throws for 20-plus. UCLA is second to last in the Big Ten in pass defense this year, allowing over 250 yards per game. In terms of success rate, teams are successful 46.3% of the time when throwing the football against the Bruins. That’s among the highest allowed in the country.
Predicting Washington vs. UCLA
UCLA has been playing quality football since mid-October. The team’s performance in many areas is far exceeding their season averages. But at some point, those above-average performances should regress to the mean. Typically, that would happen in a tough environment, against a team that is built to defend some of those strong areas.
Husky Stadium is going to be blacked out under the lights on Friday evening. It’s the final home game for 26 players at Washington, including Rogers, who is probably quite motivated to find success throwing the football in front of the home crowd. The Husky defense has been among the best in the nation through 10 games played against the pass, allowing less than 150 pass yards per contest.
Adidas has designed a unique blackout uniform for Washington to match the crowd’s color, and the environment figures to be electric. If there were a time for UCLA’s performance to regress to the mean, Friday night looks to have the right pieces.
Washington – 28
UCLA – 23
