Alabama plays Auburn in the Iron Bowl in the last regular season game following the devastating 24-3 loss to Oklahoma. That loss ended any hopes Bama had of making the SEC championship. It dropped them from seventh to 13th in the AP poll, just outside the top 12 to make the college football playoff. But they might not be fully dead yet. According to FanDuel, Alabama has the ninth-best chance to win the National Championship at +3300. Some still believe they have a shot of finishing in the top 12. A lot of things will have to go right for that to happen. One of them is beating Auburn. They are coming off a huge quadruple overtime upset win over Texas A&M. In a down year, they are playing the best football of the season. This Iron Bowl has more than bragging rights on the line.
Turnover Margin Madness
Kalen DeBoer seems at a loss for answers. After getting smashed in a must-win game, against what most considered a far weaker opponent, DeBoer spoke at his press conference this week about the main takeaways from the loss.
“A lot of it comes down to execution in all areas. Offense, defense gets up near the top. But I think there’s all areas where execution could be better. Obviously the turnover margin. And some big plays, some momentum-changing plays there played a role. And I think our inability to create explosives. I always look at that and we lost that area too in the game.”
When DeBoer mentioned the turnover margin, there was an exasperated disbelief in his reaction. It’s been the same story all year. When Jalen Milroe becomes a turnover machine, they lose. It’s also hard to create turnovers when you aren’t forcing the opponent to throw the ball. They got one fumble recovery, but it’s hard to rely on creating fumbles for all turnovers. His point about the explosives resonates too. Explosives don’t always mean 50-yard plays. It can be a 20-yard run here and a 15-yard run there that just wears a defense down.
Run All Over
Besides turnovers, the run defense was the story against Oklahoma. They got absolutely mauled by the Sooners who rushed for 257 yards with 205 of that coming in the first half. Quarterback Jackson Arnold threw for only 68 yards on 12 pass attempts with nine completions. But he dominated them on the ground with 25 carries for 131 yards. Now after getting embarrassed last week, the defense just got worse. DeBoer announced that linebacker Deontae Lawson is done for the year after getting injured against Oklahoma. He’s a captain who is second on the team in tackles plus two sacks and an interception. This defense struggled with him and will have an uphill battle without him.
Alabama’s struggles against the run are well documented and Auburn’s best offensive player is the running back. Jarquez Hunter is coming off a 130-yard and three-touchdown performance against the Aggies. He’s having a huge season with 1,145 yards rushing at 6.6 yards per carry and eight touchdowns. He can also be a mild threat catching out of the backfield with 21 catches for 155 yards and another touchdown. This is a guy who a few games ago ran for 278 yards against Kentucky. He’s a legitimate threat to take over the game if Bama’s run defense doesn’t show up like last week.
Auburn Passing Attack
At least Alabama doesn’t have to worry about Auburn’s quarterback running all over them. Payton Thorne is far less of a run threat, rushing for only 24 yards per game. After being benched earlier this season, Thorne has come into his own. Auburn has won three of the last four games. During that stretch, Thorne has completed almost 69 percent of his passes, averaging 249 passing yards per game and throwing nine touchdowns to only two interceptions.
Throne has a good depth of receivers to target. Kenadre Lambert-Smith is the leading receiver with 865 yards and eight touchdowns. He’s averaging over 20 yards per reception so he can make big chunk plays that stress a defense. The second leading receiver is freshman Cam Coleman who has come on strong as of late. He has 520 yards receiving and seven touchdowns on the year. But 228 of those yards and five of the touchdowns have occurred over the last two games. If Alabama wants to win this game, they have to slow down the Tigers’ weapons.
Find A Way
The Alabama and Auburn rivalry is enough for either team to get up for this game. Auburn is playing for pride. Alabama could still be playing for a playoff spot if other games go favorably for them. A Tennessee loss at Vanderbilt would help. Texas blowing Texas A&M out would be big too. But they need to focus on what’s in their control. The offense must be better. I’m sure they are going to try to establish the run, but Auburn only allows three yards per carry. Do they get desperate if that plan fails? Auburn has a much better-passing game than Oklahoma. Will Bama focus too hard on stopping the run and that opens up more passing opportunities? There are so many questions about this team. When you’re at home against a rival with a chance to still advance, there’s only one answer: Find a way to win.
