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UEFA Champions League Quarter-Finals Draw Analysis

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The UEFA Champions League draw is behind us but Last Word on Football brings you the draw in full with analysis.

UEFA Champions League Quarter-Finals Draw

Arsenal vs Bayern Munich

Top of the Premier Arsenal were the first team drawn out against runners-up in the Bundesliga Bayern Munich. The first match will take place at the Emirates Stadium and the second leg at the Allianz Arena.

Arsenal have been in fine form in the league in 2024, with the leaders winning every game they’ve played. In that competition this year, Arteta’s side have scored 33 goals in eight matches, averaging 4.1 goals per match. This is better than any other side in Europe’s top 5 leagues in 2024. In the Champions League, the Gunners topped Group B and beat Porto on penalties to reach the quarter-finals.

As for Bayern, Tuchel’s side topped Group A, only dropping two points. Bayern lost their first round-of-16 match to Lazio but won the second leg at home 3-0. Yet, they have had a terrible season by their standards, currently sitting in second place, 10 points behind Bayer Leverkusen. This had led to manager Thomas Tuchel being replaced at the end of the season. Bayern looks unlikely to win their 12th consecutive Bundesliga title.

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In the last three matches where Arsenal have faced Bayern in the UCL, they have lost 5-1. The Gunners’ last win in the Champions League against the Bavarians came in October 2015, in a 2-0 win in Group F. This will only be the third time the two sides face off against each other in the knock-out rounds of the tournament, with the last edition coming in the Round of 16 in 2017.

Despite their bad record against Bayern in the Champions League, Arsenal have won the last two clashes. In 2017, they won 4-3 in the Champions Cup in China. This was the same case in 2019 when a Unai Emery-led team won 2-1 in Los Angeles.

Real Madrid vs Manchester City

Top of La Liga Real Madrid were drawn out against Premier League holders Manchester City. The first match will take place at the Estadio Santiago Bernabeu, with the second leg taking place at the Etihad Stadium.

Real Madrid currently sit top of La Liga, with an eight-point gap to Barcelona in second. They have scored the most goals in the league this season and conceded the fewest. Yet in their last five league matches, Los Blancos have picked up 11 points from 15. Despite keeping clean sheets in their last three home matches, in wins against Sevilla, Celta Vigo and third-place Girona, they have only kept one clean sheet in their last three away matches. This juxtaposes to their Champions League round of 16 matchup, beating RB Leipzig 2-1 away, and holding them to a draw at home.

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As for Manchester City, they are the current holders of the competition. Unlike most, they won both legs of their round of 16 tie against FC København. The Citizens have won three of their last five league matches, keeping two clean sheets in the process. The winner of this match will face the winner of Arsenal/Bayern.

The two teams faced off in the 2022/23 Champions League semi-final. Despite the first leg being a 1-1 draw, City won the second leg 4-0 at home. They also faced off in the 2021/22 semi-finals. Despite the Citizens winning the first leg 4-3, Real Madrid won the second leg 3-1, scoring three goals in additional time.

Atletico Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund

Fifth place in La Liga Atletico Madrid were drawn out against fourth place in the Bundesliga Borussia Dortmund. The first match will take place on April 9 at the Civitas Metropolitano, with the second leg on April 16 at the Signal Iduna Park.

Atletico currently sit 5th in La Liga. In their last six matches, they have only won twice, losing to Sevilla, Barcelona and Cadiz. Moreover, they’ve only kept one clean sheet in their last eight in all competitions. However, despite this form, they were able to continue their strong European dominance, beating Inter Milan on penalties to advance.

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This is similar to Dortmund, who despite topping the ‘group of death’ in the Champions League, are also fourth in the league. They have won three of their last five Bundesliga matches. They advanced to the next round beating PSV Eindhoven on aggregate.

Surprisingly, both sides have only faced each other once in the competition. This came in the 2018 Group stage of the competition. Dortmund beat Atletico 4-0 in Dortmund, and Atletico won the return match 2-0. Both teams safely qualified out of the group, with Dortmund having a superior goal difference. Yet, both teams got knocked out in the round of 16.

Paris Saint-Germain vs Barcelona

Ligue 1 league leaders Paris Saint-Germain were drawn out against third place in La Liga FC Barcelona. The first match will take place at the Parc des Princes, with the second leg taking place at the Estadio Olimpico Lluis Companys.

Paris Saint-Germain currently sit top of Ligue 1, ten points clear of second-place Brest. Yet, their form in the league hasn’t been great since. PSG have failed to win any of their last three league matches and have conceded a goal on average per match. So far in the Champions League, PSG finished second in Group F, behind Dortmund. They faced Real Sociedad in the round of 16, beating them home and away to advance to the quarter-finals. As for Barcelona, they sit second in La Liga, eight points behind league leaders Real Madrid.

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They have gone nine matches unbeaten in all competitions, with six wins and three draws. Despite this, manager and club legend Xavi announced his resignation at the end of the season due to their previous poor form. So far in the Champions League, Barca finished top of Group H, joined by Porto with 12 points but with a superior goal difference. In the round of 16, they faced Serie A champions Napoli, winning the second leg to advance.

These two teams first faced off in 2013 in the quarter-final. The leg finished 3-3, with Barcelona advancing due to away goals, aided by their 2-2 draw at the Parc des Princes. They faced off in the 2014/15 group stage, with Barca topping the group. PSG beat Barca at home 3-2 but lost 3-1 away. Most famously, they met in the 2016/17 round of 16, where Luis Enrique (now PSG manager) was manager at Barcelona. Emery’s PSG won the first leg at home 4-0, but Barcelona won the second leg 6-1 thanks to a Sergio Roberto goal in the 90+5 minute. If it wasn’t for that goal PSG would have advanced on away goals. Their last meeting came in 2021, where PSG advanced to the quarter-finals 5-2 on aggregate.

UCL Bracket

Arsenal/Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid/Manchester City

Atletico de Madrid/Borussia Dortmund vs Paris Saint-Germain/FC Barcelona

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