Welcome back to Top Shelf Prospects, the column that brings you the next crop of professional hockey players. Each day our LWOS Prospects Writers will bring you a new player profile or topical article in the lead-up to the 2023 NHL Draft. Be sure to bookmark the site, follow Ben Kerr, Kyle Pereira and Frederik Frandson on Twitter, and spread the word for the site that will bring you analytical and critical profiles and scouting reports! Last Word On Hockey Prospects is your new headquarters for everything “NHL Draft”! Today we bring you our Matvei Michkov Scouting Report.
The 2023 NHL draft class is a loaded one. From the top with Connor Bedard and Adam Fantilli, it is arguably one of the best classes in recent memory. A part of that class is one of the best Russian prospects since Andrei Vasilevskiy and Alex Ovechkin. That player is Matvei Michkov.
Matvei Michkov Scouting Report
Right Wing — shoots Left
Born December 9th, 2004 — Perm, Russia
Height 5’10” — Weight 172 lbs [178 cm / 78 kg]
Background
Michkov, born in Perm, Russia on December 9th, 2004, is a forward playing for HK Sochi on a loan, in the KHL. Michkov, who is just 18, has played parts of the last two years in the KHL. He has totalled 43 games, scoring 11 goals and 14 assists. The Russian right wing has also played in the MHL and VHL. At the VHL level, he has played 12 total games, with 10 goals and four assists for 14 points. Meanwhile, at the MHL, the Russian equivalent of junior hockey, he scored 68 goals and 39 points in 107 points across 84 career games.
That production is incredibly impressive for a young kid playing against men. He has been consistently ranked top-five, and that’s despite the “Russian Factor” that is usually cited. He’s been ranked second by Draft Prospects Hockey, third by FCHockey, Daily Faceoff, Recruit Scouting, and DobberProspects, and fourth by Smaht Scouting, SportsNet, Craig Button, McKeen’s Hockey, Bob McKenzie, The Hockey News, and Elite Prospects.
Matvei Michkov Deep Dive
Michkov came into the year’s draft as the one guy who could dethrone Bedard as the top prospect. However, constant complications in Russia, his contract with the KHL, and not as big of a step forward as many anticipated, has led to him falling a bit lower.
Michkov’s Skating
Michkov is a strong skater. He doesn’t possess blazing speed, with the ability to burn defenders with regularity. However, what he does have is strong acceleration and superb edges. His edges allow him to change direction effortlessly and without losing any speed. That ability allows him to change speed as well, slowing down to pull up, forcing the defender to match, and then quickly turning on the jets with excellent crossovers.
Moving forward, there are some adjustments that can be made to his stride mechanics. He leans a bit forward when skating, and it leads to some balance issues, and can be the main reason he doesn’t have an elite top speed. With NHL-level coaching, that should be polished. That said, if he can add that next gear with his speed, he could be much, much more dangerous.
Offensive Abilities
When anyone talks about Michkov, they immediately point to his shot. His shot is unquestionably NHL ready. He possesses an incredibly quick release that can fool any goalie. His confidence and creativity with the puck also allows him to get shots off from anywhere, at any point, regardless of if there is any pressure on him. With the power and accuracy with that, he can score from anywhere with consistency.
But because the focus is geared towards his incredible shot, people tend to overlook just how good he is as a playmaker. Michkov has had some jaw-dropping passes. He possesses excellent puck skills in the form of stickhandling, which allows him to create space for himself. He can then use that space to thread the needle on passes. When he is under pressure, he won’t push himself to force low-percentage passes. Instead, he quickly finds the best lane to pass to, in order to extend the offensive possession, and hits his target.
Shooting Ability
First, let’s focus on his shot. Above, accuracy, power and his quick release were cited. But how do his shots truly impact the game? Thankfully, Lassi Alanen and Mitch Brown have done an excellent job tracking games. One of the things they track is shot contributions. That’s a stat that combines shots taken per 60 minutes and shot assists per 60 minutes.
Michkov, this season, ranks ninth out of every European prospect that they’ve tracked since 2016-17. He was tracked across 15 games, and posted 15.1 shots per 60, with 11.47 shot assists per 60. Last year, in the MHL, he ranked sixth among that same group, with 20.5 shots per 60 and 7.95 shot assists per 60. So, not only has he continued to improve the raw skill of his shot, like accuracy and power, but he has been more effective with his shots, at a higher level of competition.
Playmaking Ability
As for his playmaking, this is where he is severely overrated. For one, he can make some incredible passes that very few players can make, regardless of age. But, he also is extremely smart with his passing. He doesn’t just flash. He extends possessions, and doesn’t turn the puck over very often. But to put in perspective just how good his playmaking is, let’s again turn to Alanen and Brown’s “Advantages Created (5 on 5)” stats. Michkov has created 6.71 chances per 60 for himself, compared to creating 26.29 chances per 60 for his teammates. But let’s get deeper, looking at his “Passer Rating” which takes into account the value of the pass, difficulty to complete said pass, and the results of those passes.
Michkov ranks third for passer rating amongst the aforementioned group of prospects this season. Michkov is a phenomenal passer, and it’s safe to say it’s an extremely underrated aspect of his game.
Matvei Michkov’s Transitional Abilities
Watching Michkov play this season, he was given a lot of opportunities to carry the puck up ice. His skating may not be elite, but his ability to change directions and speed is, and that was a factor. Add his stickhandling and incredibly high IQ to find passing and skating lanes, and you have a player with the skill set to be an effective transitional player. 69.81% exit, 78.67% entry
Diving Deeper Into The Transitional Numbers
Again, looking at Alanen and Brown’s tracking, just how effective is Michkov? Well, in 15 tracked games, Michkov successfully exited the defensive zone, with possession, on 69.81% of the exit attempts he was directly involved in. That means that every time he was directly involved with getting the puck out of the defensive zone, he was successful just shy of 70% of them.
Meanwhile, when it comes to entering the offensive zone, Michkov saw success on 78.67% of his entries. To put that into perspective, in the games that this writer has tracked, Michkov beats even Bedard, who had a successful entry rate of 72.73% (in three games tracked at 5v5). That comes against KHL competition as well, which shows just how pro-ready Michkov’s transitional abilities are. There’s little doubt that Michkov could translate his skill set to the NHL almost immediately.
Michkov’s Defensive Zone Play
Russian hockey players are known to not play the most involved hockey in the defensive zone. Guys like Alex Ovechkin in particular come to mind. That’s not to say Russian hockey players are all bad, but the systems that are run in Russian hockey circuits are way more offensively-leaning. That being said, Michkov isn’t the best defensively. His effort levels can be inconsistent. Some shifts, he is moving his feet well and pressuring his point man effectively. At his best, he uses an active stick quite well.
However, those moments are few and far between. Most of the time, Michkov can be caught floating. Not necessarily puck-watching or chasing, but standing still and not moving his stick much. That can lead to some issues of being late to pucks that are rimmed up the wall to him. Other times, which is not unusual for Russian prospects, he will cheat up ice early to look for offensive creation. But if he can, and there’s no doubt coaches will try to push him, round out the inconsistencies in his game currently, then he can be at least average in this area. His active stick and moments of involvement show enough to prove he will at least not be a liability.
Matvei Michkov’s Potential
Matvei Michkov has incredible potential. While his shot is the main course of his overall game, and is certainly what he shows off the most, the rest of his game is also very well-balanced. His underrated playmaking skills make him a multi-faceted offensive threat. His stickhandling and creativity allows him to beat any defender, any number of ways. He can move the puck through the neutral zone and up ice with incredible effectiveness. Michkov does not need space to create plays in the neutral and offensive zones. Simple put, his skill set and traits provide him with so many tools to beat an opponent that it is near-impossible to truly defend against him.
When it comes to his defensive play, he may not be refined. He may not be consistent. But there is enough there to show that he likely won’t be a liability. Even so, his ability to effectively and consistently get the puck out of the defensive zone, with possession, against men at his young age already, makes up for any mistakes he may make in the defensive zone. The sky’s the limit for Michkov, and if it was not for the situation in Russia with his contract and concerns about players traveling, he would be the unquestioned #2 prospect on everyone’s boards.
NHL Comparison
Based on only his style, and not a projection of his impact, there are two players that come to mind when watching Matvei Michkov. Ironically, they are both Russian. The first is Evgeni Malkin. Malkin can score goals in a variety of ways, possesses high end stickhandling and creativity, and can be a solid playmaker. Michkov does not have the size or physical edge that Malkin does, however.
The other comparison that comes to mind is Sergei Fedorov. Fedorov had incredible stickhandling and creativity, just watch one of his highlight videos. But on top of that, he had a ridiculous shooting ability. On top of it all, he had moments where jaws would hit the floor with some of his passes and set-ups. That’s not to say Michkov will be the next great Russian hockey player, but he does look like Fedorov with some of his plays that he pulls off, and how incredible his shot is.
Highlights
Tracked Stats from Lassi Alanen and Mitch Brown
Transitional Data via Alanen and Brown, and Kyle Pereira (when specified)
Raw stats via Elite Prospects
Main Photo: Handout Photo-USA TODAY NETWORK
