The Carolina Hurricanes vs Florida Panthers brings back a battle of the old Southeast Division in the Eastern Conference Finals of the 2022-23 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Carolina reaches the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since being swept by the Boston Bruins in 2019. For Florida, it is their first trip to the third round since 1996 when they beat the Pittsburgh Penguins in seven. Both teams have defied the odds to reach this point. Most analysts had Florida out in the first round and Carolina the second at most.
Hurricanes vs Panthers Eastern Conference Finals Matchup
The path to the Eastern Conference Finals for both teams have created interesting storylines. Not only are these teams old Southeast Division foes but there are also other connections. Florida’s coach Paul Maurice coached Carolina in two different stints. He helped the team reach its first-ever Stanley Cup Final appearance in 2002. Brothers Marc Staal and Eric Staal both play for Florida with brother Jordan Staal playing for Carolina. Even the youngest Staal, Jared Staal is an assistant coach with Florida’s AHL affiliate Charlotte Checkers. Carolina originally drafted Panther’s forward Eetu Luostarinen. Carolina then traded him to Florida as part of the trade to acquire Vincent Trocheck. The Hurricanes also drafted Florida’s journeyman depth forward Zac Dalpe. Senior advisor for the Panthers Rick Dudley also held an executive role with the Hurricanes prior to going to Florida. But while the faces may be familiar, expect the battle to be intense.
Carolina’s Road to the Eastern Conference Finals Shows Team System
Carolina is a team that had Stanley Cup expectations in the beginning of the season. They acquired Brent Burns and Max Pacioretty over the summer and were ready to continue building on their upward trend of play. Their style of play since Rod Brind’Amour stepped behind the bench has been significant to their success.
However, Pacioretty would miss most of the season and all of the playoffs. Shortly before the playoffs began, Carolina also lost another top forward in Andrei Svechnikov who is not expected to return these playoffs. They were a team that was leading in many analytics including expected goals percentage and in generating chances but had a low conversion rate based on their expected production.
For a team looking for increased scoring, many wondered how they would fare in the playoffs after losing multiple top six forwards. The first round against the New York Islanders wasn’t the prettiest as some of the Hurricanes struggling play from the end of the regular season carried over. But ultimately they found a way to solve Vezina goalie Ilya Sorokin and won the series. To add to their injury list, top-six forward Teuvo Teravainen left game two with a broken wrist and missed the whole second round. The second round was also looking questionable for the Hurricanes. They matched up with a highly skilled and extremely fast New Jersey Devils team without Teravainen. However, they showed the effectiveness of their system with a next man up mentality and won the series in five games. Now Teravainen is looking like a strong possibility to return this round.
The Team System is Key For Carolina
Not only a key, but maybe the key for Carolina to have success in this series is to keep playing the team game they did against New Jersey. What we saw was a team that didn’t try to be something they weren’t. This shutdown, suffocating style will be essential in containing players like Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart and Carter Verhaeghe.
Without any star player truly carrying the team, production was spread around. The injuries to significant players seemed to not make a difference. Whether it was Jordan Martinook exploding in the second round or Mackenzie MacEachern stepping in his first NHL games this season in the playoffs, everyone was on board. The penalty kill and strong team defence continued to carry into the playoffs. The top pairing of Jaccob Slavin and Brent Burns led the way here. Both have been outstanding with Burns providing a new element to the team they may not have had in previous years. Even the rotational goaltending between Antti Raanta in the first round and Frederik Andersen in the second round seemed to be working. Brind’Amour has the team buzzing right now and if they can keep this up, they will be hard to beat.
Florida Defying Odds
On the other side, Florida barely slid into the playoffs at the very end of the season. During the offseason, they made possibly the biggest trade of the offseason by trading Jonathan Huberdeau, MacKenzie Weegar, and other assets for a MVP candidate forward in Matthew Tkachuk. After winning the President’s Trophy last season, expectations were high for the Panthers but not without some skepticism. Their depth on defence and injuries to players such as Anthony Duclair left a lot to be seen. And during the regular season, they seemed to have some struggles. Their overall play and analytics were not far off from last season but they were simply not able to generate the wins at the same rate. Tkachuk was a bright spot on the team. He put together a MVP worthy season with 40 goals and 69 assists in 79 games.
However, when the playoffs rolled around, the Panthers hit the ignition switch. Facing a President’s Trophy winning Bruins team with a historic, record breaking regular season, the Panthers seemed destined for a quick exit. Instead, they kept coming and refused to give in. They beat the Bruins in seven games on an overtime series clinching goal. Their next matchup was against the Toronto Maple Leafs who had finally made their way to the second round after a very long drought. With Toronto seeming to have some momentum after that win, and a star studded forward core, most thought this was their time to make it far. Again, Florida had other ideas and took down Toronto in five games. Again clinching the series on an overtime goal. While both Tkachuk and goalie Sergei Bobrovsky have been leading the way for Florida, Bobrovsky’s play against Toronto may have been the difference maker.
Florida is in place where they are playing with a huge chip on their shoulder. Not only that, but the way they are defying the odds means they are sort of playing with house money. This could again turn to be a difference maker in this series for the Panthers. When you have an overlooked team banding together successfully, it can be a boulder in motion that is hard to stop.
Capitalizing is Key
For both teams, the ability to capitalize on chances will be crucial. This may look a little different in reasoning for both teams, but the conclusion is the same. Carolina is near the top in these playoffs in expected goal percentage, Corsi, Fenwick, and expected goal differential. This is in line with Carolina’s style of play and analytics from the regular season. However, Carolina has also reached the top in goal differential, and goals for above expected. This is a big step up for Carolina versus the regular season. Needless to say, Carolina’s success seems to be coming analytically from their ability to continue to drive play and limit opposition chances like they have done all season combined with a newfound ability to convert their chances to goals. This will need to continue.
Florida is near the bottom of the playoffs in expected goals %, expected goals against, expected goal differential, goals for above expected and middle of the pack in Corsi and Fenwick. However, they are at the top in expected goals, goals against above expected, and goal differential above expected. What this seams to show is that they are decently generating chances offensively. But their strength has been stopping chances from the other team. But you can’t win without scoring. What Florida has been excellent at these playoffs is creating turnovers and capitalizing on those chances. Almost like a sniper, waiting for their chances and capitalizing when the time is right.
So, while this matchup has one team whose production has somewhat caught up to its play, the other side is being more selectively opportunistic while stopping opposition chances. Will Florida continue to stop the expected chances from Carolina? Or will Carolina’s system keep paying dividends by limiting Florida’s chances on the counterattack and finding a way to convert? The reality is the one that can keep their conversion going is going to be hard to stop. The battle of capitalization will be interesting to watch here.
Hurricanes vs Panthers Series Prediction
This series should be a lot of fun to watch. Both teams have seemed to push through when many counted them out. Which is stronger, Carolina’s next man up mentality or Florida’s us against the world? Which system will carry through? Florida has the edge in high powered forwards while Carolina likely has the edge in defence. The goalie battle so far looks to be fairly even as both sides have had success. The difference may come down to experience translating to Carolina’s players continuing to follow their system. Between Brind’Amour’s coaching, the players continuing to push forward in that system, and Carolina’s expected goal percentage analytics, it might be just enough to get Carolina to their third Stanley Cup Final. This will be a tough battle but could see Carolina winning in seven.
Main Photo: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
