It’s never too early for a front office to see which contracts are coming off the books. Captain Steven Stamkos is invested in spending the rest of his career with Tampa Bay. He’s in need of a new contract after the 2023-24 season. Stamkos is no stranger when it comes to negotiating contracts.
Breaking Down A New Steven Stamkos Contract
Stamkos is coming off another productive year with The Tampa Bay Lightning. The sniper collected 34 goals and 50 assists for 84 points in 81 games. Furthermore, he eclipsed the milestones of 1,000 games played and points during the regular season.
Tampa Bay has its core set in place for the next few years. However, Stamkos is entering the last year of his 8-year, $68 million contract he signed on June 29, 2016. He had interest from multiple teams, including the Detroit Red Wings. Yet, right before he became an unrestricted free agent, he extended in Tampa Bay.
Public Contract Projection For Stamkos
AFP Analytics is a sports analytics consulting firm that projects hockey contracts yearly. The firm is run by Kyle Stitch and James Finch. AFP projects Stamkos to receive a 4-year, $31,477,000 million contract, with an annual average of $7.861 million a season. This is a fair projection considering the history of players similar in age and production to Stamkos. Let’s see how AFP’s projection lines with the players he compares to the most.
Comparable Contracts
Comparable One: Joe Pavelski
On July 1, 2019, Joe Pavelski signed with the Dallas Stars. He inked a 3-year, $21 million dollar contract, with an annual average of $7 million per season. Pavelski signed the deal at 34 years of age, which is the same age as Stamkos. In addition, he averaged 0.83 points per game over the past three seasons prior to signing the contract. Plus, Pavelski moved from centre to winger once joining Dallas. The next player on this list has followed the same suit, so the trend keeps going.
Comparable Two: Claude Giroux
Claude Giroux signed with the Ottawa Senators on July 1, 2022. Giroux signed a 3-year, $19.5 million dollar contract, with an annual average of $6.5 million per season. Giroux penned his deal at 34 years old, so the comparable fits. Over the past three seasons prior to the contract, he scored 0.81 points per game. On top of that, Giroux switched positions from centre to winger later in his career.
Comparable Three: Daniel Sedin
Daniel Sedin extended with the Vancouver Canucks on November 1, 2013. Sedin signed a 4-year, $28 million dollar contract, with an annual average of $7 million per season. He got this extension done at age 34. Additionally, he notched 1.02 points per game over the past three seasons prior to the contract. Let’s see how Stamkos matches up with these three comparables.
Circling Back To Stamkos and More
Here is how the comparisons affect the Steven Stamkos contract. Stamkos turns 34 years old on February 7, roughly halfway through the season. He’s fluctuated between left wing and centre over the past two seasons, making the names above a perfect comparable. The Lightning now have younger and faster options down the middle in Brayden Point and Anthony Cirelli, so the ability to make the switch works with the current roster. He’s recorded 1.08 points per game over the past three seasons, but this doesn’t take into account his future total in 2023-24. However, if Stamkos replicates his production, he will be in for a good payday. Stamkos has a lot in common with the three comparables above.
CapFriendly estimates the salary cap to increase by $4 million dollars (4.79% change) in 2024-25. This gives the Lightning more money to work with. In addition, Brandon Hagel will need a new contract after the 2023-24 season. The 24-year-old is fresh off a 30-goal, 60-point campaign last season. On the bright side, Hagel will still be a restricted-free agent when his deal expires.
Final Projection
4 years, $7.5 million AAV
Here is the projection on the Steven Stamkos contract. If history repeats itself, Stamkos will earn three or four years on his next deal. If he produces well, anywhere in the seven to eight million range is more than reasonable. Even if he regressed, any average under six million is improbable.
It’s almost guaranteed Stamkos will remain in Tampa Bay for the rest of his career. It’s not a matter of if, it’s a matter of when. This will likely be the last multi-year deal for the 500-goal scorer. The Lightning will remain competitive for at least the next three seasons, with Nikita Kucherov, Mikhail Sergachev, and Andrei Vasilevskiy locked up.
Main Photo: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
