There have been a lot of highs in the Carolina Hurricanes Rod Brind’Amour era. But if there were some lows, the Hurricanes latest road trip through Western Canada would be one. As the Hurricanes essentially found ways to lose every game in regulation, their 0-4 record on this swing has pushed them out of a playoff position. With expectations high to start the year, there are some key revelations shown from this trip. We will touch on some of those points here with more in-depth follow-up articles on each topic to come soon. But if there is one overall theme that this trip shows, it’s that hockey is not won on paper.
Carolina Hurricanes Limp in Road Trip Through Western Canada
The Hurricanes ended a game against the Buffalo Sabres at home on December 2nd with a nice 6-2 win. Vibes were positive and the Hurricanes looked fairly ready for their road trip through Western Canada.
Winnipeg 2 – Carolina 1
The first stop was in Seth Jarvis‘ hometown of Winnipeg. The Jets have been a good team this season so the matchup was expected to be tough. The Hurricanes fell 2-1 in regulation. Carolina actually played a decent game but the lack of goal-scoring bit them. Martin Necas was the lone goal scorer for Carolina.
Edmonton 6 – Carolina 1
Next was the Edmonton Oilers. The Oilers had a terrible start to the season but were in the middle of a big winning streak when they welcomed Carolina to town. The previous outing in Raleigh saw Carolina handle Edmonton pretty convincedly. But oh how the tables turned. Within the first minute of the game, Edmonton was up 2-0 and it didn’t take long for Carolina to pull Pyotr Kochetkov in favour of Antti Raanta. Carolina fell flat and lost that one 6-1. Rod Brind’Amour seemed more disgusted and disappointed with the team than we typically see.
Calgary 3 – Carolina 2
But the good news was that Carolina was able to get right back on track the next day in Calgary. Shake it off and move on. And initially, they did. At the end of the first period, the Hurricanes had a 2-0 lead over the Flames. After the second period, the score held the same but Calgary seemed to be driving much of the play. Then the third period came and Carolina seemed to have quit. They squandered the lead and then had an opportunity to get back in front with a power play in the last ten minutes of the game. But not only did they fail to convert, they gave up the eventual game-winning goal shorthanded. After this one, the phrase that rang constantly from Brind’Amour and various players was that many players were simply not carrying their weight.
Vancouver 4 – Carolina 3
The final stop on this Western Canadian swing was a visit to the Vancouver Canucks. The Canucks have been surprisingly a top team this year. This Hurricanes road trip saw Carolina coming in limping. But with what should be a talented squad, maybe the last two losses would be a wake-up call. Wrong. Vancouver controlled the majority of the play, and, in atypical fashion, Carolina had fewer shots than their opposition. The Canucks scored first and never gave up the lead. When Carolina would make a pushback, they would quickly let in another one. The power play did have one goal but overall was lacklustre. The penalty kill was a bright spot as they managed to be perfect down a man. However, the complete failure to maintain even decent defensive coverage was the difference in this one. Two goals specifically were donned as just given to them by Brind’Amour.
Simply put, it was another disjointed, halfhearted, and disappointing effort bookended by a players-only meeting after the game in Vancouver. The higher the expectations the more the disappointment. And oh boy is Carolina providing this. But expectations are built on past success and the team “on paper.” And there are a few stories here showing the game isn’t won on paper.
Struggles in Net
Carolina’s struggles in net have been a consistent story this year. They are in the bottom ten for goals against and just outside the bottom ten in goals against per game. Collectively they have the worst save percentage on shots on net in the league at .867. When considering goalies with at least five games played, Raanta is worst in SV% with .861 and Kochetkov is fifth worst with .873. They are not great in GAA but not as drastically bad. For advanced stats, both are in the bottom ten goalies in the league when it comes to goals saved above expected. Both at -7.3 in that category.
As provided below, the team isn’t helping the goalies a lot. But the goalies aren’t helping either. Carolina leads the league in shots against per game with 25. This is why the goaltending is such an issue. Raanta appears to have regressed and Kochetkov is not showing he is fully ready to be the sole number one guy. Sometimes it can backfire on goalies not facing a lot of shots. But this is Carolina’s plan and has been for years. It’s nothing new for these guys. For a team with high aspirations, goaltending simply has to improve. The margin for error is so small. As was the case in Vancouver’s game-winning goal, “soft” goals can be the difference between zero and two points. Or heck zero and one point at this rate. There may be some options for Carolina to explore in net as they have been rumoured to be searching. We will dive deeper into this in an article coming soon.
Special Teams Failing to Provide Help….and Maybe Hurting
The Hurricanes special teams have been another recurring theme for a few years now. Typically, their penalty kill has been excellent while their power play has been more of a struggle. This season, the Hurricanes power play has been a little better when it comes to converting. At 20.7% the Hurricanes sit right in the middle of the league. While their conversion has been better, this last road trip showed the power play still failed to make a difference.
When confidence gets low, the Hurricanes tend to stand around the umbrella and just take shots from the blue line or top of the circles with little net-front presence. When confidence is high, the players make crisp and quick passes while constantly moving and alternating places. This causes the penalty kill to collapse. Standing around and shooting is easy to defend. In the last four games, the Hurricanes power play has been a measly 9.1%. But what has been a bigger killer than the lack of conversion is the team giving up shorthanded goals. They lead the league in shorthanded goals against with seven. None was more backbreaking than the game-winning shorthanded goal given up to Calgary. It’s one thing if the power play fails to be much help. It’s another when it actually becomes a liability.
On the other side, the penalty kill was actually perfect during this road trip. However, overall their penalty kill of 79.1% has them slightly under the middle of the league. While it’s not always a hindrance, it also hasn’t been much of a strength yet either. With everything else affecting the team, they need some spark from special teams. Or at least to not lose games because of it.
Goal Scoring Woes Return
The beginning of the season saw Carolina flying out of the gate offensively but oddly struggling to stop the puck. Over the last four games, this is no longer the case. Well at least offensively. In the last four outings, they have managed just seven goals for compared to 15 against. Players the team counts on for goal scoring were not providing much. It says something when a depth player like Stefan Noesen is leading in points and goals during that span. None of Seth Jarvis, Teuvo Teravainen, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Brent Burns, Sebastian Aho or Andrei Svechnikov have a goal. Jarvis, Aho and Teravainen don’t even have a point.
The Hurricanes actually sit in the top ten in goals for with 87 but middle of the pack in goals scored per games played. If the goalies are struggling and the defensive coverage has been sloppy, the team needs to put the puck in the net. During this Hurricanes Western Canada road trip, that simply didn’t happen. Overall they have a -2.31 goals for above expected and are near the middle in the league in expected goals. Not the bottom of the league in either stat, but also not great for a team with high expectations.
If management is waiting for certain players to develop into goal-scoring machines, it may be time to go ahead and supplement it by bringing in a true goal-scorer. Signing Michael Bunting looked like a good depth scoring option but the team needs another true 30 to 40 goal scorer to rely on. Even if long shots, there may be options out there we will explore in a future article.
System Failures Defensively
The last notable “failure” of the team during the Western Canada road trip was crucial defensive breakdowns. And here I’m not even talking about Connor McDavid walking Burns to set up Zach Hyman for a wide-open goal. Nor am I just talking about Carolina’s defence. It’s everyone.
Over this Hurricanes road trip, Carolina still was in the bottom three in the league in shots against per game. However, they were second in goals against and sixth in goals against per game. In the shot department, Carolina has allowed 89 high-danger shots against this year and sits in the top ten in that category. But even though they limit chances, they don’t stop enough of the ones that get through. This is partially due to goaltending. But also due to failures in defensive coverage. If you look at the chart below from hockeyviz.com it shows that all of Vancouver’s goals in their last game came from the middle of the offensive zone and below the top of the circles. Three of the four were at the doorstep.
Two of the four of those goals were ones Brind’Amour referred to as just given to them. As seen below on Vancouver’s second goal of the night, Martin Necas is right at the goal seemingly covering Ilya Mikheyev. However, somehow, it looks like Necas is either surprised the pass comes there or just doesn’t put forth much effort to stop the play and Mikheyev scores on a somewhat easy tap-in. Sure Mikheyev had a timely stick lift, but Necas probably should have been stronger there.
A closer look. Notice how Mikheyev lifts Martin Necas' stick right before the pass gets to the crease to give himself space. pic.twitter.com/1fIBxZCHvi
— Lachlan Irvine (@LachInTheCrease) December 10, 2023
It Needs to Be a Team Effort
This is just one example of many over this road trip where the Hurricanes forwards and defencemen failed to make a play defensively that ended in the net. Bunting had some trouble in that department as well last game. Not only missed assignments or low effort in coverage, but failures to get the puck out and bad turnovers have been a theme as well.
And then there is defensive coverage in the offensive zone, so to speak. Numerous times the Hurricanes have failed to keep a puck in the zone or maintain the zone and it has led to an odd-man rush. You give up too many of those and eventually a few will end in a goal.
For some of the newer guys like Bunting and Dmitry Orlov, maybe it’s learning the system. But overall it seems more like lack of effort or taking a “breath.” As we dive into this deeper in a future article, the simple fact is Carolina has to figure this out. It will require all the players to be on board. For a team that focuses on defensive responsibility, they cannot afford to miss assignments and lose puck battles.
The Silver Lining
There is in fact a silver lining to all of this. If Carolina can’t figure out these issues and make improvements, it’s going to be a long and disappointing year. But the season is long and it’s just early December. For a Hurricanes team playing almost as inconsistent as ever under the Brind’Amour era, they still sit right in the mix for a playoff spot. They are not down and out. Yet. There are a lot of unknowns but sometimes adversity can be the best medicine for future success. Fixing issues and finding their game closer to the playoffs might be ideal for this team still reaching for a Cup. But they cannot stay on their current path or that won’t even be an option.
Main Photo Credit: Bob Frid-USA TODAY Sports
