The Ottawa Senators find themselves in a precarious position and the Dominik Kubalik situation exemplifies that standing. Ultimately, the fact that Kubalik is being healthy scratched at this pivotal time prior to the trade deadline window is unfortunate. Of course, we want to focus on the positives, and that would be the Senators are playing well as of late. The Senators have points in five straight games at 3-0-2. A stretch that was unlikely possible earlier in the season, as they were the Sens first two extra time points. Moreover, the Sens have been playing a tighter, defensive-minded strategy as of late. Since Jacques Martin has come in and taken over, players seem to be getting the message. As a note, Martin was just recently announced to be sticking around as coach for the remainder of 2023-24.
The Ottawa Senators Forward Dominik Kubalik Has Been Healthy-Scratched
Under Martin, the Ottawa Senators playing a more defensive style compounds the fact Dominik Kubalik is sitting. One statistic that stands out that places Kubalik last among his team’s forward group is on-ice expected goals %. His value is 41.6%, whereas, for example, Ridly Greig leads the team at 54%. For Ridly Greig, he isn’t at the point of his career quite yet where he can carry the play. He can play with high-end players, let’s not be mistaken. However, he is better off playing with other top-notch players if you want him to produce. Furthermore, this has been the type of forward line we have had to see thus far in 2023-24. With Greig and Kubalik paired up, it hasn’t worked great.
A Statistical Review of 2023-24 for Dominik Kubalik
It is unusual to look at the players that Kubalik has played with and how bad his lines have been. As a result of the poor play, it has been difficult to find a fit for him. According to moneypuck.com, of the 18 lines that played at least 29 minutes together this year for Ottawa, Kubalik has not shown well. The line that Kubalik has played with most often is with Greig and Mathieu Joseph. Yet, this only checks in at the eighth most time spent together at 52.8 minutes. The leaders on the Sens are up over 150 minutes. Furthermore, the problem for Kubalik, is how his lines have been performing. Again, considering the 18-line combinations, Kubalik’s top line ranks 12th at 46.7. He is a part of four line combinations below that mark as well.
Whether It Is His Linemates or Individually, Kubalik Has Struggled
It seems that Dominik Kubalik performs best as a top-six forward. He has scored 30 goals in this league. However, for that to work, he needs to play with a solid, top-six centre. If Kubalik is put into a position to succeed he will. But to get up to grind out games on the third line, and hope to be the generator of offence, doesn’t come easy for him. Or the Senators for that matter.
As we said, the Kubalik situation is one that puts the Senators in the spotlight. Sitting a player like Kubalik isn’t something under the D.J. Smith regime they likely would have done. Perhaps the reasoning would have been to not undermine the decision-making process of then General Manager Pierre Dorion. Conversely, we are under a new regime now, and the organizational processes have changed.
Is There an Answer to Ottawa Senators Defensive Woes?
Therefore, it will be difficult to find a value trade partner for Kubalik. His production just isn’t there, and given his style of play, he needs to be producing. Current GM Steve Staios won’t get solid return value for him at this point. Even though by the numbers game, he is one of the best options for the Senators to part ways with.
At this point, trading Kubalik only becomes an option if they want to try to add a piece to this group. The piece that is a professional, hard-nosed, two-way, middle-six guy. (Bonus, one who can find the scoresheet). This was the hope that Kubalik would provide, but with a strong possibility of losing him in the offseason for nothing, getting a return asset makes the most sense. Who knows, sitting him out may turn things around, and Staios realizes just where he is a fit.
What is Best for the Group?
The Senators group of players is an interesting bunch. There is something that has been possible for the previous year or two, but definitely this year. If the Senators were healthy, they probably contend for the post-season. For example, in 2022-23 it was Joshua Norris missing a big chunk, and now, they have just got Shane Pinto back. However, this is the NHL, and you need to learn how to handle injuries, usually internally. But, this is where a strong management team is so vitally important, to know the difference. Sometimes you need to search outward, but how to optimize that search process?
Main photo: Per Haljestam-USA TODAY Sports
