The Carolina Hurricanes travel up to Minnesota to take on the Wild in this round of NHL Predictions. With the trade deadline quickly approaching, both teams are watching the market closely. Carolina will likely be a buyer (or maybe not do much at all). But Minnesota is in a tricky spot. And this game could affect their deadline plans.
For a while this year, the Wild were looking like they may be selling at the trade deadline. Maintaining a position on the outside of the playoff picture, rumours swirled about various players potentially moving on to other teams. None was more notable than goalie Marc-Andre Fleury. But recently, things have taken a turn. The Wild enter this contest with a 7-2-1 record in their last ten including back-to-back wins over the Seattle Kraken and Edmonton Oilers. Kirill Kaprizov was the NHL’s first star last week with six goals and six assists in four games.
Carolina enters this one after taking a shootout loss to the Buffalo Sabres on Sunday. Spencer Martin started in net in that one and was pretty much the only reason they even got a point. Whether it was fatigue or something else, that may have been one of their least cohesive games all year. In their last ten, they are 6-3-1 and will be looking to get revenge for a 5-2 loss they suffered from Minnesota in Raleigh.
With Minnesota knocking on the playoff door, Carolina needs to get back to their game to pull out a win here. In this round of Predictions, let’s take a look at three keys to a Carolina Hurricanes victory.
NHL Predictions: Carolina Hurricanes vs Minnesota Wild
Three Keys to Victory for Carolina
Kirill the Thrill
It comes as no surprise that Kirill Kaprizov has earned the nickname “Kirill the Thrill.” When he is on the ice, he is always a threat offensively. Since coming over from Russia to Minnesota, he has arguably been their top franchise-like player. This season he leads the team in points with 63 and is second in goals with 26. But as stated above, currently he has an especially hot stick.
Six goals and six assists in four games is a crazy hot streak (3 ppg). If Carolina gives him any room at all, he’s going to make them pay. Line matching is going to be more difficult for the Hurricanes in this one as they will be away but that doesn’t mean it is an excuse. Whether it’s Sebastian Aho‘s line or Jesperi Kotkaniemi‘s matched against Kaprizov, they need to be on high alert.
Throwing the puck around aimlessly and hoping for a result won’t work and will likely lead to turnovers and ineffective breakouts. The team needs to play to its strengths and get pucks deep to frustrate the Wild. This in turn could limit Kaprizov’s room on the ice to produce.
Strike on Special Teams…But Don’t Rely on It
Carolina’s last three games have seen a few noteworthy stories. One is that the team seems to be passing more than shooting, which seems atypical for a Rod Brind’Amour coached Hurricanes team. The other story is that their goal-scoring has gotten cold across the board. With four goals in the last three games, getting offensive production has been more of a challenge. For a period now they do not seem to be getting as many power play opportunities as previously. This could be one reason that the team’s scoring has gotten somewhat cold.
This means two things. One, and the most obvious, is that the team cannot rely solely on power play opportunities. Their 5v5 scoring has to be better. A lot of mental mistakes, missed opportunities, and over-passing have plagued the team of late. The goalies and penalty kill have been hot, but you can’t win if you don’t score.
What this also means is that they need to value the power play opportunities they actually get. Against the Sabres, Martin Necas struck on the power play late in the game. But against the Dallas Stars, they went 0/2 on the man advantage and against the Florida Panthers 0/1. Did they get more opportunities than their opposition in any of the last three games? No, they didn’t. But if they can’t convert on the chances they get anyhow, it won’t matter too much. Get shots, don’t overthink it, and strike on the power play.
Martin Necas Driving His Line
Speaking of Necas, he seemed to have turned another corner for the Hurricanes over the last stretch. He had a breakout year last season in terms of points. Even though his points pace may be slightly behind last year, lately he has been showing the team more instances of taking over. He is still third on the team in points and tied for second in goals even though he has played in fewer games than those in front of him.
But he has shown that he can actually drive the play of his line. Most of the time you see this in a centre but as of late, Necas has arguably been the driver for the effective line of himself with Jack Drury and Michael Bunting. He is fourth on the team in expected goals with 15.5 but leads the team in shots on goal per 60 minutes with 9.51.
For a team looking to get its goal-scoring back up, and part of that puzzle being more shots, Necas is a big piece to the solution. His straight-line speed is borderline elite and lately, he is using it to break into the zone himself to get off a shot or set up a play. Carolina will need more of this against the Wild in order to leave Minnesota with a win.
Prediction Time
This round of Predictions has the Carolina Hurricanes mostly looking to get back to their game and fine-tune it in preparation for the (likely) playoffs. But it also has the Minnesota Wild battling already in a playoff “do or die” mentality as they crawl back into the picture. Will Kaprizov stay hot or can Carolina shut him down? They surely need to. Without that and some increased offensive pressure, Carolina may not right the ship here.
Prediction: Minnesota wins 3-2
Main Photo Credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports
