This round of NHL Predictions sees the Carolina Hurricanes return home to take on the New York Islanders. This Metro Division matchup is a re-run of the first-round matchup in last year’s playoffs that saw the Hurricanes move on. This is the fourth and final matchup between the two with the Islanders leading in the season series two games to one. Every game has been a one-goal difference.
The Islanders enter this one after a 5-2 loss to their neighbouring rival New York Rangers on Sunday. The Islanders are one of the many teams closely pushing for a Wild Card spot in the East but seem to be allergic to it every time they get close. They are 6-3-1 in their last ten but 0-3-1 in their last four. New coach Patrick Roy is sure to be trying to light a fire in his team as this final stretch is already their playoffs.
On the other side, Carolina is in a fairly comfortable spot in the standings. They sit in second in the Metro with a decent lead over the third-place Philadelphia Flyers and a few points back of the Rangers for first. The tough thing about being in this spot is getting too complacent before playoff time. But the good part is that they can focus on working in their new, trade deadline acquisitions and working out kinks in the team’s game. With that said, Carolina has been pretty good lately. They are 8-2-0 in their last ten and could have been 10-0-0 (blowing a three-goal lead to Winnipeg and a 1-0 loss to the Rangers from an own goal). Carolina will look to keep the good going in this one.
Here are three keys to a Carolina Hurricanes victory in this round of NHL Predictions.
NHL Predictions: Carolina Hurricanes vs New York Islanders
Three Keys to Victory for Carolina
Sebastian Aho…That One
Sebastian Aho has developed into one of the faces of the Carolina Hurricanes. After maybe just head coach Rod Brind’Amour, nobody on the Hurricanes stands out in such a way more than Aho. And with good reason. From being somewhat surprisingly selected in the second round of the NHL Entry Draft, Aho has progressed every season. And this one is no different.
Aho currently leads the team in points with 74, goals with 27 and assists with 47. He is one of Carolina’s most elite players as he can do a little bit of everything. He plays a 200-foot game, puts himself in prime scoring positions by using his hockey IQ, is somewhat surprisingly fast, knows how to finish, knows how to set guys up, kills penalties, contributes on the power play, etc. etc. Carolina has not really had a player of this level since prime Eric Staal. No matter who Aho plays with, he seems to make those around him better.
While he had a few colder games recently, he picked it right back up this weekend with two goals and one assist against the Toronto Maple Leafs Saturday and a three-assist showing against the Ottawa Senators Sunday. Of course, the never-ending joke between the Hurricanes and Islanders is that New York too has a Sebastian Aho. However, he is a Swedish defenceman and while a very solid player, not quite at Carolina’s Aho’s level. It’s not so much that Carolina’s Aho has to outperform New York’s or something like that, but a big showing for the Finnish Sebastian Aho will always go a long way for Carolina. And it is no different in this one.
Strength Between the Pipes
What was once a weakness of the Hurricanes this season is now looking like a strength. Goaltending was a revolving door of mess early on. Both Antti Raanta and Pyotr Kochetkov were struggling and Frederik Andersen left with a blood clotting issue that many thought would sideline him all season. But as time has progressed, the position has strengthened with a waiver wire pickup, a return to form and some fortunate luck.
Lately, Andersen and Kochetkov have been alternating starts. Andersen got the last one against Ottawa so most likely Kochetkov will start here. While Kochetkov had a tougher showing against the Maple Leafs on Saturday, he was left out to dry a bit there. Also, he has overall been very good of late. So much so that his SV% has jumped up to .911 while his GAA is 2.44 after sitting below the .900 mark for a lot of the season. If Carolina decides to go back to Andersen, he too has been excellent since returning from injury. He is 4-0-0 over that span with a .949 SV% and 1.26 GAA.
And then there is Spencer Martin. Carolina picked him up on waivers to provide some depth and he has played well enough in that role to earn a one-year contract extension. In his five games with Carolina, he has gone 4-0-1 with a .922 SV% and 1.97 GAA. While Carolina is likely to keep up their rotation mentioned above, they might throw Martin in to give him some reps. Having this depth come playoff time will be great. But no matter who is in net, keeping up their solid play will be big against the Islanders.
Advantageous Scoring
When Carolina made moves this trade deadline, they addressed their goal-scoring by adding Jake Guentzel and, to a lesser degree and more indirectly, Evgeny Kuznetsov. Overall, Carolina has been better at scoring this year. Another year of improved chemistry, continued development of players starting to enter their primes like Martin Necas or even younger like Seth Jarvis, and resurgence in the play of some older ones like Teuvo Teravainen all contributed to this increase. But the team’s game plan has remained the same. Forecheck hard, attack the puck, and get shots on net at large rates.
But with the increases in goal-scoring ability due to the factors above, Carolina has been able to convert those chances a little better than some of the years past. This should likely continue to improve once the new guys get more comfortable. Kuznetsov has seemed to have thrived so far with a change of scenery. He had a goal and an assist against the Senators.
But this idea that Carolina needs to convert their chances comes back to the theme of taking advantage of the chances they get. The Islanders have Ilya Sorokin in net and no matter what his stats are (currently .909 SV% and 3.03 GAA), he is an elite goaltender capable of shutting you down. So you have to attack the net and pounce on opportunities. One of these will be on the man advantage. While Carolina got a little cold on the power play, they have picked it back up in the last two games. Meanwhile, the Islanders rank 32nd on the penalty kill. While not the only opportunity Carolina needs to take advantage of here, striking on the power play could be a game-changer.
Prediction Time
Even though Carolina has been hot of late and the Islanders have been sort of struggling, this could very well be another tight game between these two. The Islanders are at home and fighting for their playoff lives. Carolina will need to keep up the pressure to pull out the win but the home team will do what they can to prevent it. For this round of NHL Predictions between the Hurricanes and Islanders, I’d expect a tight game with Carolina edging it out.
Prediction: Carolina wins 3-2
Main Photo Credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports
