Today’s NHL Predictions features a cross-conference matchup. We will look at Tampa Bay Lightning (38-25-6) predictions, as they take on the Los Angeles Kings (36-22-11). On Thursday night, the Lightning beat the San Jose Sharks in a convincing 4-1 victory. The Lightning jumped received contributions from their superstar duo once again. Nikita Kucherov assisted on all four Lightning goals. Furthermore, Brayden Point added two goals and an assist, eclipsing the 40-goal plateau for the third time in his career.
On the other side of this matchup, the Kings have been a tale of two teams this season. The Kings came out of the gate red-hot and looked like a Western Conference favorite. However, a rough losing streak put them down to third in the Pacific Division, which caused Head Coach Todd McLellan to lose his job. Kevin Fiala leads the scoring charge for Los Angeles with 62 points. Moreover, Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe are second in scoring with 60 points this season.
The Lightning have won seven of their last ten contests, which includes a five-game win streak. Anthony Duclair looks like the best pickup of the 2024 Trade Deadline, while Point and Kucherov dominate their opponents every night. With that, here are three keys to victory for the Lightning in this matchup.
NHL Predictions: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Los Angeles Kings
Three Keys to Victory for Tampa Bay
Force Turnovers
One of the best attributes of this Lightning roster is their hard forecheck. Players like Anthony Cirelli, Brandon Hagel, and Tyler Motte are some of the best in the league at pressuring opposing defenders and creating turnovers. The Kings are sloppy on the breakout, and their 12.063 botched retrievals per hour rank second in the NHL this season via All Three Zones. Los Angeles turns the puck over constantly, and Tampa Bay can take advantage of this on the forecheck.
Furthermore, we tracked the last meeting between the Lightning and Kings on January 9th as part of our microstats workbook here at Last Word. The Lightning recorded seven shots off turnovers against the Kings, the highest count out of any game we have tracked this season. Tampa Bay must lean on the forecheck to create turnovers and catch the solid Kings’ defence off guard.
Top Line Continues Their Dominant Play
While Jon Cooper has more pieces to work with after the trade deadline, this team does not compare to the past Lightning rosters. Tampa Bay must continue to rely on the stellar play of their new top line, which features Duclair. Since his arrival, the 28-year-old forward has had four goals and three assists for seven points in five games. Furthermore, Point and Kucherov are on a heater of their own.
Kucherov has three goals and 12 assists for 15 points in his last four games, while Point has seven goals and four assists for 11 points in his last four games. The trio outscored opponents by a ratio of 6-2 over the last four games. Moreover, the line controlled 61.9% of the expected goal share at 5v5 (61.9 xGF%). We expect their offensive contribution to be vital in a win against Los Angeles tonight.
Solid Depth Contributions
The Kings are a team that can roll four lines and tire out their opponents. The Lightning must rely on their improved depth to match the pace the Kings will bring to this contest. We expect Los Angeles to control the pace of play, but we also anticipate the Lightning will keep up.
Luke Glendening remains a solid option in the face-off dot for the Bolts. Additionally, his defensive zone turnover differential of +11 ranks second on the Lightning this season from our microstats tracking project. On the forecheck, Glendening’s 2.62 successful retrieval percentage (2.62%) ties for third amongst Tampa Bay forwards. Glendening will continue to be critical on the penalty kill heading into the playoffs.
Prediction Time
The Lightning are a dangerous Wild Card team with the success of their top line in recent weeks. Everything continues to come together for Cooper’s group late in the season, and fans should be optimistic heading into round one. We would not be shocked to see them pull off an upset in the first round.
On a side note, we will continue to expand the microstats workbook and share findings via articles. Additionally, the data has complimented our predictions for the Tampa Bay Lightning articles fabulously. We believe the Lightning will extend their winning streak to six games against the Kings.
Prediction: Tampa Bay wins 5-2
Main Photo: Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports
Microstats via sportseventsguide (Jack Pallotta and Kyle Pereira)
Advanced percentiles via AllThreeZones
Raw stats via NaturalStatTrick & MoneyPuck
