With the playoffs in full-swing, we take a quick step back here at Last Word. Last week we discussed potential Calder Trophy winners for 2023-24, this time we look at the odds for the Norris Trophy for the NHL’s top defenceman. Make sure you check us out as we go over the rest of the major awards in the weeks to come.
The Players with the Best Odds of Walking Away with the James Norris Memorial Trophy
Cale Makar
When you consider Cale Makar’s nomination for the Norris trophy it is basically a legacy nod. And that’s saying something for a five-year veteran of the NHL. In his rookie season he won the Calder as the league’s top rookie, amongst all players, not just defencemen. Since that year, he’s finished in the top-three of voting for the Norris trophy each time. He continues at an amazing career point-per-game pace or better. That goes for each individual season, with his rookie season being the sole exception. This season, Makar has set career-highs in assists, points, and even blocked shots. Furthermore, Makar is regarded as one of the best skaters, maybe ever. With an amazing ability to pivot on his edges, he’s almost impossible to check off the puck. This helps him have incredible recovery and the ability to stay with attackers. When locking in your vote, you can’t go wrong with Cale.
Quinn Hughes
Quinn Hughes to this point in his career, might be evidence that Norris voters don’t vote based on offensive production. How else would you explain his ninth place finish last year, despite nearly a point a game, with 76 in 78. In any sense, Hughes and the rest of his Vancouver Canuck squad have stepped it up a notch in 2023-24. The Canucks finished the regular season atop the Pacific Division standings. Moreover, for Hughes’ game itself, one big improvement from previous years, is his goal output. Previous to this year, his high was eight, compared to this year’s 17. It really just means he added a more complete offensive attack to his resume. His total points benefitted as a result. As if opposing wingers needed more elements to fear of his game. His Norris Trophy running odds are boosted by the Canucks winning the NHL’s Pacific Division, and he’s their best defenceman and one of most consistent players, maybe only surpassed by the production of J.T. Miller.
Noah Dobson
Our next D-man to chat about, is newer to the scene of elite defencemen. But that should do nothing to deter voters. Noah Dobson is a superb NHL defenceman. Furthermore, he plays a very dynamic style, similar to Cale Makar, but he has more size. Dobson had a career year recording 70 points in 79 games. Impressive offensive numbers on a club that ranks 22nd in goals for in 2023-24. No one on the New York Islanders blueline was remotely close to Dobson in points, in second place Mike Reilly had 24 points. Dobson’s defensive command of the game can be seen in his Point Share value of 9.9. And he’s not afraid to get dirty, with a career-high 180 blocked shots. Finally, Dobson’s excellence was a big part of the Isles third place finish in the Metropolitan Division.
Evan Bouchard
We move on to chat about only the second Edmonton Oiler defenceman to record an 80-point campaign, Evan Bouchard. Bouchard had 18 goals and 64 assists for 82 points this year. It’s one thing to be a top power play defenceman, it’s another thing entirely to take advantage of it. Bouchard does that and more teaming up with Connor McDavid and the rest of the unstoppable first PP crew. His right-hand, booming, low, and accurate slapshot are the perfect complement for the rest of the PP alignment. Additionally, he had an incredible CF% Rel of 16.6. This can, at least partly, attributed to his defensive partner, Mattias Ekholm.
According to moneypuck.com, the pair was absolutely dominant in 2023-24, topping the league among regular pairings with an xGoals% of 62.8. The pairing played the third most minutes of any around the league at 1186 minutes, which was accumulated through 79 games. Two of the other D on our list of candidates appear near the leaderboard but are not nearly as effective. Hughes (and his partner Filip Hronek), and Makar (along with Devon Toews), had xGoals% of 53.3 and 55.1, respectively.
The Next Tier of Odds to Win the Norris Trophy Starting with Adam Fox
Adam Fox’s inclusion is somewhat of an honourable mention and a legacy nod, but he did have a great season in his own right. However, for a guy who has won the Norris (2021), and finished second (2023) in voting, his season did leave a bit to be desired. Fox topped out at over a PPG for the first time in his career, with 73 points in 72 games. Analytically, he had a CF% Rel of 12.4, nothing to shake a stick at. In contrast, that metric would be aided by a high oSZ% of 63.4. In other words, he gets a lot of offensive opportunities because he is put in the position to do so.
It is difficult to find holes in Fox’s numbers, based on his purely individual offensive dominance. Conversely, one way to establish it was a down year for Fox, is by analyzing his defensive pairing numbers. Fox and his partner, Ryan Lindgren, didn’t do great together in 2023-24. Their total minutes were nearly on the level as the previous pairs we mentioned, but their xGoals% was not. At 46.5%, that is the type of rating that normally gets associated with a third pair. It is definitely enough to take Fox’s game in 2023-24 out of the discussion among the elite or other Norris candidacy contention.
The Honourable Mention List of Candidates
For sure, these names could easily win the Norris outright on a given season. Take Roman Josi of the Nashville Predators as an example, and his 85 points in 82 games. Our expectation of Josi seems to take away from his greatness. This was only the second time in his career he was above a PPG. The 2020 Norris winner will garner some voting attention, but don’t expect among the top-three. Other defencemen that are definitely elite include Josh Morrissey, Charlie McAvoy, Miro Heiskanen, and Aaron Ekblad. No one would be out of sorts of either of them cracked the top-three in voting nominations either. And finally, a shoutout to Victor Hedman, who had a big bounce back 2023-24, maybe enough to attract some Norris attention. After a third-place Norris voting finish in 2022 when he scored 85 points, injuries seemed to catch up with Hedman last year. He dipped to just 49 points, but recovered nicely this year, back to 76. Furthermore, he is an opposing force, and often played around 25 minutes a night in his career. Again, he will get some voter attention, but don’t look for him to claim many first place votes.
We see the Norris Trophy odds shaking down in the order we presented the names. Therefore, the top-three slots starting with the top will be Makar, Hughes, and Dobson. Up to five or six could steal away votes, but look for most voter’s top selection to come from Makar or Hughes specifically.
Main photo: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
