The Carolina Hurricanes goaltending position has been an interesting one to say the least the past few seasons. This season specifically, it was a rollercoaster. Frederik Andersen, the de facto number-one goalie, only played a handful of games before leaving due to a blood clotting issue. He returned and finished the season on fire. But when it mattered most in the playoffs, he was simply not quite up to the task. Maybe Rod Brind’Amour should have continued to alternate Kochetkov and Andersen during the playoffs, but hindsight is 20/20.
The up-and-coming Pyotr Kochetkov started the season off struggling but came back around December and played at a pretty high level. The older veteran Antti Raanta struggled all year. Even though his play picked up a little later in the season, he ultimately ended the year clearing waivers and playing in the AHL. And then Spencer Martin was claimed on waivers out of necessity and played well enough in a 2/3 role to earn a one year contract this up coming year. But with all of that said, and only Raanta a free agent out of the three this offseason, where does Carolina stand guarding the net?
Goaltending a Focus for 2024/25
For a team with high Stanley Cup aspirations and pretty strong shot suppression on defence, they seem to fail to have all strengths clicking when it comes to the playoffs the last few years. Last year, they lost to the Florida Panthers due to seemingly struggling to score even though they got solid goaltending. This year, they outplayed the New York Rangers at times and didn’t struggle to score quite as much, but Andersen was simply outplayed by Igor Shesterkin.
Now out of the playoffs and in disappointment, rumours have swirled that Carolina may be looking to upgrade in net. And they should. It is the single most important position and it can be the thing that leads to a Championship. (Hurricanes fans see Cam Ward 2006.) A bad goal given up can be the difference between a Cup and a quick ride home. But I’d argue how they go about that upgrade largely depends on management’s belief in one man: Pyotr Kochetkov.
Pyotr Kochetkov the Goalie of Today and Tomorrow in Carolina
Kochetkov has steadily been improving every year since coming to the NHL. Hurricanes fans have seem him so much it doesn’t seem right that he still qualified for Calder Trophy consideration this season, but he did. At 24 years old, the Russian netminder is the goalie of the near future for Carolina. Management seems to clearly believe in that as they gave him a pretty affordable four-year deal with an AAV of $2 million. But the bigger question is if they believe he is the goalie of today.
Overall, last season Kochetkov had a .911 SV% and 2.33 GAA, both career bests for him. His GAA was among the tops in the leagues for goalies playing more than 20 games. This also included four shutouts that finished him tied for third in the league. When Andersen returned, the two split the starts every other game to finish the year and it worked quite well. It is very possible to see this arrangement continue this upcoming season but with Kochetkov taking more of the starts. Andersen does seem to do better when his workload is heavily managed.
In the playoffs, Kochetkov only saw the net once. Was this a coaching error? Maybe so maybe not. But what Carolina does this offseason largely hinges on when they truly feel like they are ready to hand over the reigns to Kochetkov.
Options for Carolina for a 1A/1B
If Carolina feels like Kochetkov is not ready to take over, and that Andersen is not the answer, they will go on the search for a true starter to 1B option. A big rumour of late surrounds Linus Ullmark of the Boston Bruins. Other options could be Jacob Markstrom from the Calgary Flames, Juuse Saros from the Nashville Predators, or John Gibson from the Anaheim Ducks. As a wildcard that could fit in this category or the next, there is Elvis Merzlikins from the Columbus Blue Jackets. Each of these would arguably be an upgrade over Andersen (some question marks for Merzlikins though), even if not that much of a spread depending on how and who you look at.
As we looked at earlier in the season, Gibson could be a potential option as a goaltender itching to get on a winning team with term left on his contract. This would give Carolina the ability to let Kochetkov marinate even more until he finally takes over. Ullmark, on the other hand, has one year left on his deal so that might be more of an immediate option with a potential for a few more years. However a pending UFA after a year may be a bit of a risk.
Could Carolina Do It?
Carolina’s cap situation is tight at the moment with a lot of free agents to re-sign so that would have to be managed. If they do move on from a player like Martin Necas, there may be some wiggle room. You’d also have to think Andersen may be going the other way in a deal like this. And then you wonder if a team like Anaheim would take a flyer on a player like Jesperi Kotkaniemi hoping for a reclamation? He is still relatively young and could be a piece to grow with the rest of the Ducks.
Options for Carolina for a 1B/2
If Carolina decides that Kochetkov is the go to guy right now, I wouldn’t see them doing anything at all. Just let Kochetkov and Andersen continue to rotate with Martin as the third option in case of injury or other circumstances.
However, if they did look for more of a 1B to true backup role, the options are a little more open and the cost would obviously be less. Could they move Andersen for a cheaper true back up option? The good here is that could free up a little cap room for other moves and let Kochetkov truly take over. But at the same time, is that really a smart move? You are already talking about an “upgrade” in net and while Kochetkov a year more experienced may be an upgrade, taking the risk by downgrading the other goaltender seems a little absurd.
This is where you may see a player like Merzlikins come in. He has shown potential to be a true starter/1A option. But he has also struggled a lot. This wouldn’t be a cap dump move and actually would cost more which makes it even less likely. However, he could come cheaper (trade wise) than some of the names mentioned above for 1A options due to his struggles. But there is potential for a big resurgence. A high-risk high reward type move. Carolina pulls these moves from time to time, but I’m not sure now is the time really. At his cost and with the risk involved, that seems like a road not worth taking. While a more equal one for one type move may work, it seems like under this mindset they are better off just hanging onto what they have.
A Cost Benefit Analysis Provides More Questions than Answers
Evey decision the front office makes will be ran through a cost benefit analysis. Every team faces this, but Carolina tends to really lean into probabilities and analytics under strong influence from Eric Tulsky. Ultimately it is that leadership group needing to decide the direction here, but there are options. Do they shoot big for the more likely upgrade at a higher cost? Do they take a flyer on someone like Merzlikins looking for a rebound? Or do they stand still and roll with what they have?
To Give, To Get, or To Stay
The central question that starts this whole process is where the Hurricanes actually see Kochetkov in the present. If he is ready to take over as the starter, the best course seems to be to run with him and Andersen as a 1A/1B tandem. They can save assets to use in other trades and maintain a relatively affordable goalie pair. The problem is this setup didn’t pan out in the playoffs this season. Would that have been different with more Kochetkov starts though?
If the Hurricanes don’t see Kochetkov ready to take over their goaltending as a starter, making a bold move to bring in a true number one guy is not a bad move. Despite all of the potential turnover this offseason, Carolina should still be in a place to compete in the playoffs. Sometimes the cost is worth the reward to swing for the fences. They went out and got Jake Guentzel and even though they were knocked out of the playoffs, scoring did seem to improve a lot due to his play. And if goaltending is truly the most important position, it seems like a good position for the Hurricanes to focus on. Kochetkov should be in the mix and seems right there to take the next step, but you can’t fault management if they decide to “swing big” on an available top-level goaltender.
Main Photo Credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports
