You’d think a team with the offensive talent of the Winnipeg Jets have had recently that they would have a dominant power play. However, for the club, that has not been the case. And despite the success of a team that has made the playoffs, and been one of the NHL’s top defensive teams and strong on 5v5, they just can’t seem to get it done on the power play. Therefore, we shall explore explanations of why their power play is so ineffective and what head coach Scott Arniel can do about it.
For context on this discussion, let’s start by analyzing just how bad the Jets power play has been.
| Season | Win % | PP% | NHL Avg. | Rank |
| 23-24 | .671 | 18.8 | 21.0 | 22nd |
| 22-23 | .579 | 19.3 | 21.3 | 24th |
| 21-22 | .543 | 21.1 | 20.6 | 17th |
Granted, it hasn’t been abysmal by any stretch of the imagination. In contrast, for team looking to tip the scales in tightly-contested playoff series, having a consistent power play is important.
The Pieces Are in Place for a Dynamic Offensive Attack
Let’s analyze the Winnipeg Jets offensive talent, and why it is a surprise their power play isn’t more efficient. Their attack is led by Mark Scheifele. Since 2016-17, Scheifele has 572 points in 570 regular season games played. Next, has been the emergence of defenceman Josh Morrissey. Over the past two NHL campaigns, he has 145 points in 159 games played. There’s sniper Kyle Connor. Except 2022-23 when it was 1.1, but his goals per 60 minutes have always been between 1.3 and 1.6 otherwise. A fantastic goal rate for an NHL goal scorer, and conceivably the perfect weapon for a club’s power play. Moreover, the club has some younger players who are suitable fits for the power play. Cole Perfetti scored 19 goals as a 22-year-old in 2023-24. In addition, Gabriel Vilardi had 22 goals in 47 games along with a tremendous 18.8 shooting percentage.
The Unknown Factor and Nikolaj Ehlers
Furthermore, the club has had the option of inserting Nikolaj Ehlers onto the power play. He is a seven-time, 20-goal scorer for the Jets. Conversely, some of the power plays issues could be a direct result of Ehlers.Part of Ehlers discontent, and possibly wanting out of Winnipeg, revolve around his lack of opportunity. If we compare Ehlers opportunity with Connor’s say, the discrepancy is obvious. In 65 games in 2023-24, Connor averaged 19:43 a night, and had 216.9 total power play minutes. On the other hand, Ehlers played 15:52 a game, appearing in all 82 games. During Connor absence, no doubt Ehlers would fill in for him on the power play. However, Ehlers still had way less power play minutes at 180.9. Some years the disparity was greater. In 2022-23, Ehlers and Connor’s total power play minutes were 129.1 and 301.9, respectively.
This will be a big part of the challenge for new head coach Scott Arniel coming into 2024-25. That is to improve the club’s power play. In order to that, an important first step would be figuring out the personnel. However, the nice part about that, is that he will have plenty of suitable options to draw from when making his selections. Luckily, Arniel is more than familiar with the club’s personnel.
A Tall Task for New Jets Head Coach Scott Arniel
Arniel first came to Winnipeg as part of previous head coach Rick Bowness’ staff to begin the 2022-23 season.When Bowness and crew came to Winnipeg, they identified changes were needed to the culture and the leadership of the team. Thus far, it seems they have done well, including 2023-24, 52 wins, 110 points, and the club’s outstanding defensive standing. Their goaltending has been superb which was evidenced by Connor Hellebuyck walking award with both the Vezina and William M. Jennings trophies this past season.However, there still is work to be done. One example of that is the playoffs not going the way they wanted them to go. Another tall task facing Arniel is the work needed on the special teams.
From his head coach introduction interview back in May, he spoke to that task. In today’s NHL, you need dynamic strategies with constant evolution. Teams are always changing their approach based on watching game film and making little adjustments where needed. He discussed the organization having a summit in the summer of analytics and its use throughout the team. No doubt the power play failures will be a focal point of these investigations.
The Specific Winnipeg Jets Power Play Alignment
It seems one solid first step is establishing the players you want on the respective power plays. Scheifele, Connor, and Morrissey are locks for the first unit, but outside of that, it could very well be a bit of a revolving door. Depending on whether Ehlers stays or not, given his offensive propensity, having him a consistent role on the power play definitely seems like a good idea. With Connor occupying the first unit, having Ehlers on the secondary power play team as the top player and goal scorer, seems a smart move. That is, as long as you can keep the player happy with other opportunities. These potential opportunities could mean more ice time overall, more last minute in game or overtime chances, and also getting bumped to the top power play on occasion.
Aside from that, it just comes down to coaching and having a strong power play system in place. That includes strong breakouts and zone entries. Then, once they are in the zone, with the talent they have, just keep it simple. Scheifele is very strong on the puck at generating offence, so he needs to have a plan of how to do that and execute. One challenge is two of the Jets stronger players from their team last year in expected goals category are gone. They being Sean Monahan and Tyler Toffoli. The next best player from 2023-24 was Gabe Vilardi, who had an expected goals of 7.0 with an actual total of nine goals on the 5v4 power play. They need someone like that down low with Scheifele forcing the play to the net. Moreover, this should open up room for Connor and Morrissey to move into more favourable goal creating locations on the ice.
Between Players and Coaching Staff They Just Need It to Work
The Jets do have other personnel options to spread out through the power play. Alex Iafallo and Nino Niederreiter provide strong offence and Adam Lowry can post up in the paint well. Also, they have strong puck distributors from the blueline such as Neil Pionk, Dylan DeMelo, or possibly Ville Heinola for the second power play unit.
In any case, fixing the Winnipeg Jets power play will be a top priority for Scott Arniel and staff as training camp approaches. It does seem they have the personnel available, so figuring out ice time distributions will be an important step. Aside from that it will take utilizing the talent available, and figuring out how to make their attack dynamic and adaptable.
Main photo: James Carey Lauder-USA TODAY Sports
