Welcome back to another NHL Predictions. Each day our writers here at Last Word on Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, we will look at the New York Islanders taking on the Boston Bruins. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2024-25 season.
NHL Predictions
New York Islanders vs Boston Bruins
Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)
TV: NESN, MSGSN; ESPN+
This matchup features two Eastern Conference opponents sitting in similar positions at the season’s quarter mark. The Islanders are holding fifth place in the Metropolitan Division with a record of 8-9-5 through 22 games. The Bruins are in fifth in the Atlantic Division with a record of 10-10-3 through 23 games. This will be the first of three matchups this season between these two teams, tonight’s will take place on Long Island inside UBS Arena. Last season, the Bruins took the series 2-1 from the Islanders.
The Islanders Story
For the Islanders, the story continues to be blown third-period leads. It happened again in their last game, a 4-2 loss to the Detroit Red Wings. For the second time in four days, the Red Wings have come back down in the third to tie and win the game in regulation. The offence has slowed down after heating up for a few games, they have scored two goals or less in three of their last four games. The team ranks 29th in the league in goals with 2.45 per game. Their powerplay remains a big reason for that, they went 0-3 in their last loss. That drops them to dead last in the league at just 12.7%. Some good news is Anthony Duclair who has played just five games has started to skate by himself, a good sign for a return soon. They could use a spark offensively and maybe, Duclair can provide it.
The Islanders have been a good defensive club this season, at least for the first two periods of games. They have outscored teams 33-26 in the first and second periods. However, they have been outscored 37-21 in the third period and overtime. Their 33 goals allowed in the third period are the most in the NHL. That is a major reason why they have given up their leads and lost games they should win. The team still ranks 11th in goals allowed with 2.86 per game. That number is thanks to the strong goaltending play from Ilya Sorkin. He is 5-5-3 with a .917 save percentage, 2.52 goals-against and is the confirmed starter for this game.
The Bruins Story
The major story around the Bruins is the firing of head coach Jim Montogomery. In the last year of a three-year contract with the team, he was fired after a sluggish 8-9-3 start to this season. Joe Sacco was named interim head coach and the team has won two of his three games behind the bench. The struggling Bruins offence ranks last in goals with 2.32 per game and were shutout in their last game against the Vancouver Canucks. They are led by veterans David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand. Pastrnak has 19 points, and Marchand has 15 in 23 games. Those two are the driving force for their top-heavy offence and can light you up on any night.
The defence of the Bruins has also struggled along with their offence. Boston ranks 20th in goals against with 3.18 per game. However, there is some room for optimism. In the small sample size under their new coach, they haven’t allowed more than three goals in any of those three contests. Boston also has done well at limiting chances, they have given up the third least amount of high-danger shots with just 31.
The Bruins also hope to get better play from their goaltending, specifically the one who was signed to an eight-year $66 million deal just before the season. Jeremy Swayman has been having a rough go so far, he is 6-8-2 with a .888 save percentage and 3.16 goals against. With this being the second of a back-to-back for Boston the Islanders will see Joonas Korpisalo. He has been the better of the two with a 4-2-1 record, a .911 save percentage and a 2.38 goals against.
Prediction
Due to the lack of offensive production from both of these teams, we expect this to be a low-scoring game. That combined with the two goalies playing in this one should only add to that. These teams are battling for the wild card spots so the two points are important for both giving this game more juice. However with the Bruins on a back-to-back and having to travel from Boston to Long Island that gives the edge to the Islanders who should be able to snap out of their recent skid.
Prediction: Islanders win 3-2
Prop Bets
We wrap up NHL predictions with some prop bets. According to Fanduel, the odds on this game are pretty even. Take the Islanders’ money line at -115. The over/under is set at 5.5, with the stats highlighted before we expect this to be low-scoring, take the under at -102. As far as any-time goal scorers, for the Islanders, take Anders Lee at +210. He snapped a four-game pointless streak in the last one and has played well on the top line. For the Bruins take David Pastrnak at +125. The Bruins don’t score much but if they do Pasta should be in the middle of it.
Main photo by: Brad Penner-Imagn Images
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