With the final Game 7 of round one wrapping up last night, Round 2 is quickly approaching. Tonight, the Florida Panthers vs Toronto Maple Leafs kicks off the second round of the NHL Playoffs. You could argue both teams had upsets in their first round, but it 100% applies to the Panthers who will look to do the same thing again. Toronto was favoured on paper, but maybe not because of their history. Now, both teams will look to move onto an Eastern Conference Final for the first time in a long time. Let’s break down everything surrounding the Florida Panthers vs Toronto Maple Leafs series.
Florida Panthers vs Toronto Maple Leafs
How They Got Here
As mentioned, the Panthers had the upset of the decade when they knocked off a Boston Bruins team that just set an all-time NHL record for points in a season. Florida, on the other hand, just barely snuck into the playoffs by one point, with 92 on the season. A 134-point team vs a 92-one, sort of like David vs Goliath. But the resiliency of the Panthers saw them take down a Bruins team that dealt with injuries and inconsistencies. In a series that looked over after four games, the Panthers fought back and won three straight.
On the other side, the Maple Leafs took down the Tampa Bay Lightning in six games. This also saw three overtime winners in Tampa’s building by the Leafs. Toronto finally got over the hump, winning their first round since 2004. Now, their fans hope it is enough to send them on a long playoff run.
Russian Goaltending Matchup
For the second round in a row, Ilya Samsonov will face a Russian counterpart in net. Last round, he outplayed Andrei Vasilevskiy, a tall task. This round? Sergei Bobrovsky, who came in for Game 4 of the series against Boston. Bobrovsky looked shakey early, letting up five goals in that game. However, he rebounded in Game 5 helping the Panthers to a 4-3 overtime win with 44 saves. He then let up five in a 7-5 win, making 29 stops. Only to shut the door in Game 7, stopping 33 of 36.
That series defines Bobrovsky’s time with Florida pretty well. At times, he looks like the goalie they hoped they were paying a massive contract to. However, too often he then looks like a shell of his former self, letting in way too many goals. Against a high-flying Leafs offence, the Panthers will need him to be great this series.
For Samsonov, more of the same is what will be asked for. He played a massive role in winning Games 3 and 6, but much like this season, he was just steady as needed. Sure, he had a few blunders in the series. But he always bounced back, and for the most part Toronto knew what to expect out of him. A roster as good as the Leafs, that’s all that’s needed.
Florida Panthers Forwards
The biggest question surrounding this series may come from the top guys of the Florida Panthers. Not Matthew Tkachuk. It is safe to say we know what he will bring. Skill, annoyance, and tenacity that is unmatched. However, the player who may be the X-Factor for Florida is Aleksander Barkov. Barkov really struggled at times in round one. He and Anthony Duclair posted some of the team’s worst metrics when it comes to possession. That needs to change against a Toronto team that boasts Auston Matthews, John Tavares, and Ryan O’Reilly down the middle. Barkov will need to take a big matchup, and hopefully win it.
Luckily, the Panthers may be one of the few teams suited to this Leafs depth up front. While Sam Bennett isn’t exactly what you think of as an elite centreman, having Tkachuk on his wing sure helps. From there, they have the previously mentioned Barkov, and Anton Lundell. Lundell had a solid first round and should only gain confidence as he keeps playing in these playoffs. The 21-year-old isn’t the flashiest player, but on a third line? He will be trouble.
Defence Brings the Edge
A real edge in the Florida Panthers vs Toronto Maple Leafs series may just be the defence for Toronto. Not something many people would have expected to say even a few years ago. However, this team has done a great job building up their blueline. Both teams have dynamic offensive defencemen. Brandon Montour had an amazing season and first round. Morgan Reilly struggled this year but had an amazing first round as well. After that is when things start to change. Aaron Ekblad is a huge X-Factor for the Panthers. He has struggled at times this year but can still eat a ton of minutes. After him, the depth will really be tested.
Gustav Forsling, Radko Gudas, and Marc Staal will help make up the rest of the Panthers defence core. They will have their work cut out for them. On the other side, it will be Jake McCabe and T.J. Brodie matching the Tkachuk line. Luke Schenn and Reilly will be a pairing, and then the Leafs will have a mix of Timothy Liljegren, Erik Gustaffson, and Justin Holl playing with Mark Giordano.
The Leafs blueline is deeper, but you can also argue they don’t have the number one that Ekblad can be for Florida. They will have to do it by committee like they did in round one.
5v5 Matchups
The most exciting part of the Florida Panthers vs Toronto Maple Leafs series may just be how the matchups work at 5v5. Florida is a team that can dominate pace at 5v5, but they do give up a good chunk defensively to create offence the other way. Toronto has the speed and skill to get into a track meet, but is that the smartest thing to do? Mitch Marner is a player that will almost certainly benefit from a more open style of play, but Toronto’s overall team game may be stronger if they lock it down defensively.
The one thing Florida may want to be careful of? How Montour and Staal are used at 5v5. Marc Staal looked insanely out of place at times in round one. He posted a 46CF% and 42xGF% which ranked fifth and sixth among Panthers defence. Montour is a net positive because of how much he creates offensively. However, that pair might be a nightmare in their own end against the deep skill of Toronto. Keeping them in sheltered minutes may be crucial.
Nothing to Lose
Overall, the Florida Panthers vs Toronto Maple Leafs should be a great series. Lots of speed and skill will be on display, and it is now two teams that probably feel like they are playing with some house money. Florida was not expected to be here and has no expectations, which is when a team can be at their best. Toronto has finally gotten over the hump of that dreaded first round. And while their expectation is a cup run, one has to wonder if that single round win takes all kinds of weight off of their shoulders.
Prediction: Leafs win in 6.
Main Photo: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
