The Tampa Bay Lightning trade deadline will be interesting to watch this season. Over the last several seasons, they’ve been active with deals. It started with Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow. More recently, it has been Tanner Jeannot and Mikey Eyssimont. This season, there is a question of what the Lightning should do; buy or sell? Here at Last Word, Kyle Pereira and Jack Pallotta will start a series where they look at some potential trades. Let’s say they sell, who do they get? What do they give up? Today, we look at Anthony Duclair of the San Jose Sharks.
Tampa Bay Lightning Trade Deadline: Anthony Duclair
Duclair, a former third-round draft pick by the New York Rangers in 2013, is a 28-year-old left-winger. Duclair has played for seven different teams in his career that has spanned 10 years. His best season came with the Florida Panthers in the 2021-22 season, where he produced 31 goals and 27 assists for 58 points across 74 games. Last season, also with the Panthers, he dealt with injuries, culminating in just 20 games played. But, he produced nine points, which is a 37-point pace. Not ground-breaking, but certainly not a bad production line for someone who averaged just under 15 minutes per game.
This season, Duclair joined the Sharks, and it has not gone particularly well. Across 44 games, he has seen just eight goals and assists for 16 total points. That’s a ~29 point pace, his worst season since 2017-18, and his worst pace since 2016-17. So, what’s been going wrong?
Duclair Scouting Report
Duclair is an interesting player to watch this season. For one, when looking at AllThreeZones from Corey Sznajder, he is below replacement in all shooting and chance generation via shooting this season. His passing metrics are almost all negative as well, as he is only above replacement level in one category: one-timer assists per 60 minutes. That means he is above the average NHLer when it comes to setting up one-timers. The eye-test backs that up as well.
When watching him, he didn’t really shoot the puck as much as one would expect from a proven goal-scorer. As a matter of fact, he is averaging 1.57 shots on net per game this season, which is his worst mark since 2016-17. That’s unsurprisingly inline with his point rates as well. Meanwhile, as a passer, he does a good job of displaying patience and using his strong stickhandling to open passing lanes to set up teammates. Another noticeable trait is his defensive game is solid, but his forechecking and backchecking is largely nonexistent. Not sure if the Lightning want that type of player on the roster, considering previous moves.
Duclair’s Strengths
This season with the Sharks, let’s be honest: it’s been bad. Really bad. Historically bad. So, let’s call it a wash, shall we? Instead, let’s take a look at his numbers with the Panthers. For one, he had his 30-goal season with them, and his highest-producing season as well. AllThreeZones has his player card looking completely different as well. In his 2021-22 season, his best, he graded out well in just about every area in the offensive zone, both as a playmaker and shooter. In particular, he was excellent at creating rebounds and setting up one-timers.
With that said, he feels like a balanced offensive weapon with upside in the Lightning system. With his proven ability as a goal-scorer, he can add some scoring punch down the lineup, something the Lightning certainly need. Plus, as a playmaker, him being paired with Eyssimont, a very high-volume shooter, could prove valuable. His weaknesses, which will be talked about more down below, could be masked alongside Eyssimont. He can also help make the powerplay, which is already lethal, even deeper.
The Concerns For Duclair
He does not feel like a Bolt. Just generally speaking, he hasn’t been a high-energy player. Duclair isn’t an efficient or involved forechecker, unlike guys they have previously targeted. Additionally, he hasn’t been a very good transitional player with the Sharks. Now, with Florida, he was efficient, but not very involved in that aspect. Maybe he can find that part of his game once again in a better situation like Tampa Bay, but considering his lack of involvement over the years, it isn’t completely likely.
For more, Duclair generally is more of a goal-scorer. The problem with that is this: if he is told to shoot more with the Lightning, then that would make for another high-volume shooter that has been largely inconsistent throughout his career. Him with Eyssimont on a makeshift third-line could make for some very short offensive zone attacks that consist of circling the offensive zone for three to five seconds, ending with a shot from the point that had no chance of finding the back of the net, and leading to an exit for the opponents. Again, not sure if that’s what the Lightning will be looking for. But again, if he can strengthen and use his playmaking skill more, there could be something there.
What It Would (Likely) Take To Acquire Duclair
For starters, Duclair holds a $3,000,000 cap hit, and the Lightning cannot afford that contract without a few things: 1) The Sharks retain salary or 2) the Lightning trade back a player making more than at least $1,000,000. For the sake of this trade, let’s say the Sharks retain 50%, knocking the hit down to $1,500,000. They can send Alex Barre-Boulet across to them and send down Emil Martinsen Lilleberg (or a cap hit of at least $800,000) when they bring back Jeannot, Austin Watson, Tanner Jeannot and Mikhail Sergachev. Now, if one of those four can’t return, then they no longer have to send down Lilleberg, and can instead send down someone like Haydn Fleury.
As for comparable trades, there are three somewhat similar deals to look at. Nick Bonino, a veteran and proven playoff player, was retained at 50% of his salary while producing at 0.32 points per game when he was dealt. He netted essentially two 5th round picks and a 7th round pick, along with a prospect defender from the NCAA. Another deal was the Gustav Nyquist deal, where he produced at 0.46 points per game, and was retained at 50% as well. But he would only command a 5th round pick. Finally, the most comparable: Tyler Bertuzzi going to the Bruins, while producing at 0.48 points per game and being retained at 50% as well. He got a 1st and a 4th round pick in return. That’s notable, with Duclair being younger but producing at 0.36 points per game. He won’t command the same as Bertuzzi, as he produced less and doesn’t provide the physicality Bertuzzi does.
Lightning acquire Duclair (50% retained)
Sharks acquire Alex Barre Boulet, a 2025 2nd and a 2024 5th round pick.
Tampa Bay Lightning Trade Deadline: In Or Out On Duclair
Despite the hesitance held for Duclair, this trade could hold the best upside. Previous articles looked at Thomas Novak and Kailer Yamamoto, and Novak is more regarded for his energy and playing with edge, while Yamamoto is used more as a defensive specialist. Duclair is pretty much all offence, in a fairly balanced role. As mentioned, he can shoot the puck and is a proven goal-scorer, which is needed in the middle-six.
But most importantly, he is good as a playmaker, setting up one-timers. Generally, he attacks the slot areas effectively when he has good players around him with his passes. With the high-energy guys who attack the dirty areas, that trait could push the needle for the Lightning depth. But, is it worth the potential cost? Additionally, is he someone the front office would value, considering who they have targeted in the past? Duclair doesn’t bring that same edge and efficiency on the forecheck or backcheck, something long valued for Julien BriseBois and company. Will they look his way?
Advanced stats via AllThreeZones (paid subscription required)
Raw stats and per game stats via Hockey-Reference
Main Photo: Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports
