This round of NHL Predictions sees the Carolina Hurricanes returning home to take on a Metropolitan Division rival in the Philadelphia Flyers. This is the fourth and final meeting between these two. Carolina leads the season series two games to one but it’s a new day.
The Flyers come to Raleigh on the back of a victory over the Toronto Maple Leafs Tuesday night. Still holding onto the third spot in the Metro with 78 points, the Flyers have been an interesting team as the season winds down. They both sold and bought at the trade deadline but remain in a playoff spot. The big news coming from Tuesday was John Tortorella’s benching of Flyers captain Sean Couturier. The Flyers are 5-4-1 in their last ten.
The Hurricanes come back home after a successful three game road trip that saw them win all three. Starting with a thrilling comeback win over the Maple Leafs, they then took down the Ottawa Senators 7-2 and the New York Islanders 4-1. This was largely due to great goaltending and the influx of firepower from their trade deadline acquisitions. The Hurricanes are 8-2-0 in their last ten and are two points behind the New York Rangers for first in the Metro Division.
With this intra-division matchup in this round of NHL Predictions, here are three keys for a Carolina Hurricanes victory.
NHL Predictions: Carolina Hurricanes vs Philadelphia Flyers
Three Keys to Victory for Carolina
First Line Magic
The Carolina Hurricanes have seen their first line combinations work well at different times this season. At one point, the Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen, and Andrei Svechnikov line was on fire. But then it cooled and adjustments were needed. Since a few games after the NHL trade deadline, Carolina has utilized their shiny new toy in Jake Guentzel on the first line with Aho and a bumped-up Seth Jarvis. Three very skilled and offensively gifted players with Aho and Jarvis providing very dependable two-way qualities. But with those qualities and Guentzel’s elite offensive hockey IQ and creativity, that line has been burning up lately.
In five games together, this line has four goals for and none against. They also have 26 shots for with 15 against with a 65.22 CF%, 64.29% FF% and 72.4% xGF%. With only one high danger chance against they have 11 for too. And the eye test backs this up. These three have been creating plays to generate chances left and right while dominating most of the play while on the ice. Even though Guentzel is still new to the team, and the sample size is still not entirely large, his almost instant chemistry with these two has been huge. And it will be a big advantage against the Flyers if they can keep it up.
The give and go between Guentzel and Jarvis 🔥 pic.twitter.com/No09pMbw0K
— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) March 20, 2024
Keep the Foot on the Gas
The playoff picture is starting to take shape across the NHL. This is especially true for teams with large point gaps in the standings like the Rangers and Florida Panthers at the top with ones like the San Jose Sharks near the bottom. The Hurricanes fit into the first category with a 14 point lead over the third place Flyers and a little more of a lead over the last wild card spot. While they could compete for the top spot in the Metro, their sights are likely more on the playoffs. While nothing is guaranteed yet, this puts Carolina in an interesting spot for the rest of the season.
The team knows they cannot just coast and risk trickling into the playoffs. Even though that may be the focus rather than regular season accolades, not having to fight for your life means you need an additional source of self generated motivation. They can work on playing their game correctly, building good habits and, for injuries, keeping guys out with even minor nicks. But to keep getting wins, they need to keep up the motivation. It hasn’t been a problem lately but if they get too comfortable against the Flyers, it might become one.
Kill the …. Power Play?
Carolina is doing well both on the man-advantage and at 5v5 right now. However, they had went a little cold for a while, the power play has picked back up and they are back at third in the league at 26.4%. And on the penalty kill they have been stellar. At second in the league with a 85.8% kill rate this has been a strength. Meanwhile, the Flyers power play is a league worst 12.9% but their kill is third in the league at 84.5%. But while special teams could be a big factor here, the key here for Carolina is actually to play responsibly on the power play.
The Flyers lead the league in shorthanded goals with 15 this year. Travis Konecny is tied for the league lead in shorthanded goals with five. Meanwhile, Ryan Poehling has three and Scott Laughton has two while three more players have one each. It’s not a secret that the Flyers have no problem attacking the puck carrier on the kill and rushing back the other way to get a shorthanded chance. This means that Carolina will have to manage the puck carefully on the power play, especially near the blue line. Getting clean entries and making smart and crisp passes while in the zone will be key here. Shorthanded scoring is a strength for Philadelphia and Carolina doesn’t need to make that easier for them.
Prediction Time
The season series between these two has seen the games swing both ways. Carolina has the series lead right now but the Flyers are in more of a dogfight to secure their playoff positioning. In contrast, with Carolina currently in a groove and having solid contributions from top to bottom, they should be a hard team to beat. But that doesn’t mean they can coast through this one. The Flyers will likely come out firing and Carolina has to be ready.
Prediction: Carolina wins 3-1
Main Photo Credit: Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports
