The Battle of Florida hasn’t been a close one. The Florida Panthers are up three games to none over the Tampa Bay Lightning. In previous years, the Lightning dominated the Panthers in the playoffs. However, the 2024 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs appear to have flipped the script. Here at Last Word, we will comment on all the playoff first-round series at their mid-points. While many anticipated this season to be the end of the road for this Lightning core, no one expected the Panthers to dominate so convincingly. After a glimpse of promise on home ice in the second period of game three, the Lightning are on the verge of elimination on Saturday evening at Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida. The sportsbooks favour the Panthers to close the series in game four at -122. Let’s analyze some storylines from the series and recap the first three contests.
Ahead of Game 4 of the Lightning vs Panthers, Stellar Goaltending Continues for Both Sides
While many expected this series to fill the back of the net, both goaltenders continued their stellar performances in round one. Sergei Bobrovsky continues to receive credit for his stellar play, but Andrei Vasilevskiy has arguably played on the same level through three games. According to Evolving Hockey, Bobrovsky ranks fifth in goals saved above expected in the playoffs (1.85 GSAx). On the other hand, Vasilevskiy ranks sixth in goals saved above expected (1.78 GSAx) this postseason. The Panthers are a dangerous team with their depth and Bobrovsky at peak form. Meanwhile, the Lightning have not done enough to support Vasilevskiy. The “Big Cat” has been left out to dry, and there’s nothing more than he’s already done that he can do to assist the Lightning in a series comeback.
Big Pre-game 4 Mystery, How Does the Tampa Bay Offence Respond?
During the regular season, the Lightning were an offensive powerhouse led by Art Ross Trophy winner Nikita Kucherov. The Bolts notched 3.49 goals for per hour (GF/60) in all situations, good enough for fifth in the National Hockey League. Furthermore, Kucherov led all skaters in scoring with 44 goals and 100 assists for 144 points. Meanwhile, in the playoffs, Tampa Bay scored just 2.24 GF/60 through three games, an entire goal less than their regular season average. Florida is an excellent defensive team, but we did not anticipate the Lightning offence to shut down to this level. Gustav Forsling continues to shadow Kucherov and prove why he’s a fringe top-ten defenceman in the National Hockey League. The Lightning must have a response on offence for the Panthers in game four, whether Jon Cooper adjusts his line combinations or changes his power play strategy.
Magic in Crunch Time: Clutch Genes Remain in Sunrise
After a historic Cinderella run during the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs, the Panthers responded with a first-place finish in the Atlantic Division. Matthew Tkachuk and Carter Verhaeghe continue to be absolute money in the playoffs. Verhaeghe ranks 11th amongst active players in playoff game-winning goals with eight. Furthermore, he’s only played in 48 playoff games, which makes this stat even more impressive. Verhaeghe notched another overtime winner in game two to put the Panthers up 2-0 in the series against the Lightning. Plus, Tkachuk has a goal in two of the first three games. In the series preview, we told viewers to place an anytime goal scorer player prop for Tkachuk, and he’s fulfilled this investment 67% of the time. The clutch genes of Verhaeghe and Tkachuk remain magical in the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Game 4 Panthers and Lightning Preview, Closing Thoughts and Predictions
The Battle of Florida is all but over, and the Lightning appear to have reached the end of the road. Steven Stamkos is a pending unrestricted free agent, and the organization has yet to work out a new contract for their captain. With back-to-back first-round exits approaching, Stamkos might turn elsewhere for the 2024-25 season. For the Panthers, they are thriving in their cup window. This Florida roster stands prepared and structured for another deep playoff run. However, the Sam Bennett injury might end up hurting them down the road. For now, Anton Lundell has done a great job filling in. We predict the Lightning scrap a win on home ice in game four, followed by a Panthers win to end the series on home ice in game five.
Raw Statistics via EvolvingHockey and QuantHockey
Main photo: Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports
