The Carolina Hurricanes have had two first-line combinations so far in the early stages of the season. The first few games saw Sebastian Aho centre Andrei Svechnikov and Seth Jarvis. Most recently, we have seen Aho centring Svechnikov and Jack Roslovic. Aho, Svechnikov and Jarvis all are franchise pieces for the organization. Roslovic is the only wild card but can show a decent scoring touch occasionally and plays with speed. However, so far this year, the driver of both first-line combinations has been Andrei Svechnikov.
The Hurricanes First Line Power Forward
The way both of these first lines are built gives something amongst its three forwards. Aho is an ultra-competitive centre who can do a little bit of everything. Jarvis is a speedy winger who can play a hard forechecking game while exhibiting high-level skill and goal-scoring ability. Roslovic is a little more of a pure shooter with a lot of speed but limited defensive ability.
But Svechnikov is a power forward through and through. He has speed, he has a great shot, he has hands and he has underrated playmaking vision. But his style of play is somewhat reminiscent of Marian Hossa in that he moves the puck and the play by using his body and strength. Yeah, he hits and forechecks hard, but even when he has the puck you can see his power. And so far this season, it is this ability to retrieve and utilize his power in moving the puck that is driving the first line.
The Results Speak for Themselves
When we talk about driving a line, we really have to look beyond normal stats like goals (two) and assists (five). This is where advanced analytics help tell a little bit of the story. Individually, Svechnikov is at the top of the Hurricanes and top five in the league for players playing at least 50 minutes in on-ice expected goals for per 60 minutes at 5v5 with 4.87. His 85.06 on-ice shot attempts per 60 minutes at 5v5 also leads the team and is second in the league, while his 4.6 on-ice expected goals differential is tied with Jarvis for the team lead. Other stats where Svechnikov leads all Hurricanes are shot attempts (43) and shots on goal (23). Meanwhile, his Corsi, Fenwick, and expected goals percentage at 5v5 all sit north of 60%.
Both Hurricanes first lines have expected goals percentages above 60% with each of Svechnikov, Aho, and Jarvis north of 70%. Those two lines are the first and third best in that category for the Hurricanes this season. The common denominators have been Aho and Svechnikov. Both of these players are strong analytically and you could make the argument that each of them contributes to this success. But the case for Svechnikov comes from the stats above and the fact that he currently outpaces Aho in most analytics with the exception of Corsi and Fenwick. This is not a knock on Aho by any means, but more of a praise for Svechnikov.
You combine these numbers with the eye test below and can really see it. However, his ability to create so many opportunities through high analytics keeps the motor going for the Hurricanes first line. Let’s take a look further.
Watch and Learn
These advanced analytics help back up what the eye test appears to be showing. Just by watching Svechnikov this season, you can see the way he is driving the play when his line is on the ice. Not only does Svechnikov drive the net and like to shoot the puck, but his ability to keep possession and make plays can be a major game-changer when his line is on the ice. This is seen by dissecting the play in the clip below.
Carolina goal!
Scored by Seth Jarvis with 09:05 remaining in the 2nd period.
Assisted by Andrei Svechnikov.
Carolina: 1
New Jersey: 1#NJDvsCAR #RaiseUp #NJDevils pic.twitter.com/fKlMfreqGY— NHL Goals (@nhl_goal_bot) October 16, 2024
The ultimate goal by Jarvis is somewhat the result of a broken play but getting the puck to Jarvis started with Svechnikov. He has the puck behind the net, loses it, but doesn’t give up. After retrieving the puck from the defenceman, another New Jersey Devils player jumps down low to double team Svechnikov. When this happens, Svechnikov is able to shield the puck from both defenders, take a hit, and make the heads-up play to quickly move the puck to Jarvis moving towards the net. There were so many chances for the puck to turn over on that play. The initial loss of possession, after regaining it but still having the defenceman on him, or when he was double-teamed. But Svechnikov kept it moving and made the play.
Leading the Way
This is just one example of what Svechnikov is bringing to the Hurricanes first line. But whether you want to study the analytics or watch the Russian winger on the ice, you can see that he is the one driving a lot of the play for his line. You would like to see his actual results match up with his expected stats (-1.9 goals scored above expected). And if things continue on this trend they likely will. But at the end of the day, it’s a team game. Having a player like Svechnikov to create opportunities for himself and those around him, win and keep possession, and push the pace is a big benefit to the Hurricanes.
Main Photo Credit: Bob Frid-Imagn Images
