Swedish centre Mika Zibanejad had 41 goals and 34 assists for 75 points in 57 games. Had he played a full 82-game season, he was on pace for 59 goals and 49 assists for 108 total points. He had six game-winning goals, including multiple beautiful overtime-winners for the New York Rangers. He had two hat tricks, including a 5-goal performance. Suffice it to say, Zibanejad had an excellent season. But will he do it again?
Can Mika Zibanejad Sustain His Play?
Shooting Percentage
Although Zibanejad was putting up many points, the rate at which he was doing so is not repeatable. In the 2019-20 season, he had a shooting percentage of 19.7%. From 2017-2019, he maintained a shooting percentage of 12.7%. During the 2016-17 season, he had a shooting percentage of 11.8%. Overall, his career shooting percentage including this season is 12.9%, much higher than the rate from 2019-20. Even if his shooting has improved from one year to the next, a change to that extent over the course of a single year would be impossible. For reference, the leaders in average career shooting percentage leaguewide are Steven Stamkos, Leon Draisaitl, and Mark Scheifele, with 16.89%, 16.85%, and 15.94%, respectively. Zibanejad’s historically high rate of shooting should not be expected to continue going into next season. This means major regression in terms of point-totals unless he begins to create more scoring chances.
Play-Driving and Defence
Having scored as much as he did, one would assume that Zibanejad contributed to a near proportional amount of scoring chances as points. However, he did not generate nearly as many quality scoring chances as one may have assumed. After all, point totals are very misleading.
As illustrated, Zibanejad’s xGF/60 on the season was in the negative while his GF/60 was very high. This means that he did not drive play well by any means, but finished on almost all his chances, and was on the receiving end of some luck. Counting on external factors to continue in his favor would be very risky, especially if his luck runs out.
As for his defensive play this season, Zibanejad ranked 33rd worst at even strength defense (EVD GAR) and 6th worst at short-handed defense (SHD GAR). Overall, he ranked 13th worst at overall defense (EVD + SHD) amongst forwards this season. Zibanejad has maintained a reputation of being reliable on both ends of the ice, even receiving Selke votes, despite being far from Selke material this season, as shown by his horrid xGA/60.
Performance in the Past
For the past three seasons preceding this one, Mika Zibanejad had been an excellent two-way center, impactful on both ends of the ice.
As shown by the RAPM chart above, Zibanejad truly was a dominant force from when he arrived in New York to the end of the 2018-19 season. However, Zibanejad really took a step backward in 2019-20, despite what it may seem. It’s difficult to say he had a down year, considering the career-highs in goals and points, but his overall levels of play and impact were not at the levels where they could have been.
Expectations for Next Season
In terms of goal-scoring and point-totals, it can be expected for Zibanejad’s outputs to decrease. However, the extent to which they decrease is entirely up the quality of Zibanejad’s play. If he can return to his form from previous seasons, the fall-off will not be as significant. If he continues to perform the way he did last year, then he, along with his team depending on him, will struggle. At the end of the day, Zibanejad is no 60 goal-scorer or 110 point-notcher. But he doesn’t have to be. As long as he performs to the caliber of a true top-line center with solid offensive and defensive contributions, the regression destined to come should not be all that hurtful.
*Thanks to HockeyReference and EvolvingHockey for the stats and charts used in this piece.
