The NASCAR Cup Series begins its 76th season on Sunday, February 18th. Who will make the 2024 Playoffs, and who will win the Championship?
Kicking off the year sees the 66th running of the Great American Race from Daytona International Speedway. A field of the world’s greatest racecar drivers will look to start the season strong en route to a shot at the Series Title.
Various Playoff formats have composed the Cup Series dating back to its inception in 2004. This season, the Regular Season concludes after 26 races with 16 drivers locking themselves into Playoff contention. Those 16 will be cut to twelve, twelve to eight, and eight to four across three, three-race rounds. Then, the Final Four will square off at Phoenix Raceway in November for the NASCAR Cup Series Championship. Parody throughout the field is the broadest it has ever been, meaning any of the 34 full-time drivers will have a shot at finding themselves in the mix.
It is time to be My predictions are in for the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs. Also, see who I have selected to make the Final Four and capture the Championship.
THE LOCKS
Kyle Larson
Many consider Kyle Larson to be the greatest driver alive. His accomplishments range from his 2021 Cup Series Championship, to his 2015 Rolex 24 Hours of Daytona win, and to his vast dirt track resume including multiple Knoxville Nationals and Chili Bowl victories. Larson’s 2023 season saw some inconsistency but four wins and a runner-up points finish. This year, his competitiveness will be as sharp as ever before. Is he the favorite to win this year’s trophy?
William Byron
What a breakout year it was for William Byron. The recently-turned 26-year-old led the Series in wins (6) and average finish (11.0). Additionally, he and teammate Kyle Larson were the only two drivers to lead over a thousand laps. Byron contested for the 2023 Championship but finished third of the four drivers. He knows what it takes to get the job done having claimed the Xfinity Title in 2017. His year-to-year incline is nearly reaching the peak as the Charlotte, North Carolina native aims to make 2024 his year for the taking.
Ryan Blaney
Aside from Dale Earnhardt Jr., was Ryan Blaney winning the Bill France Cup on your bingo card? Despite leading the points 15 races into the season, two vicious crashes at Nashville Superspeedway and Daytona appeared to hinder his summer performance. His Playoff run, however, was spectacular with two victories and his ultimate Title at Phoenix. A fire has been lit in Blaney, and the flame will continue strong this season. He will look to become the first consecutive Champion since Jimmie Johnson in 2009 and 2010.
Denny Hamlin
Denny Hamlin is nearing what are the final years of his NASCAR Cup Series career. On-track performance has yet to see any decline, as the 43-year-old finished 2023 with the third-most Top 5s and second-most Top 10s. Hamlin’s three wins took his career total to 51, putting him 13th on the all-time leaderboard. However, he has still yet to secure the coveted Bill France Cup. 2023 could be the one as he will unquestionably make and be a threat in the Playoffs. Are you “A11 in” on Hamlin’s chances this year?
Christopher Bell
For two consecutive years, Christopher Bell found himself in the Final Four. Both times did the 2017 Craftsman Truck Series Champion win to advance; a Martinsville clock in 2022 followed by last year’s checkered flag at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Each time at Phoenix, however, was the driver labeled as the underdog of the quartet. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver and dirt track veteran will only get better as he targets the Championship.
Joey Logano
Everyone can agree that Joey Logano’s 2023 was uncharacteristic. Atlanta Motor Speedway was his only win of the year, and his laps led total (308) was his fewest in a season competing with Team Penske. In addition, the season followed his 2022 Cup Series Title while teammate Ryan Blaney took his first crown. I think Logano returns to dominance, finding a minimum of three victories in the Regular Season. “Sliced Bread” looks to become one of only ten drivers in NASCAR history with three Championships.
MORE-THAN-LIKELY
Tyler Reddick
Tyler Reddick is already entering his fifth full-time Cup season. The back-to-back Xfinity Series Champion from 2018 and 2019 found a new home last season at Toyota with Denny Hamlin’s 23XI Racing. Two victories at Circuit of the Americas and Kansas Speedway, a near-two position jump in average finish, and a 6th in points were career bests. More consistency from Reddick will result in a better Regular Season and a stronger Championship run.
Ross Chastain
2023 was a down one for Ross Chastain. His win total matched the year prior, but his contention for the checkered flag seemed less on a week-to-week basis. Additionally, his season saw five and seven fewer Top 5s and Top 10s, respectively. Nonetheless, a 9th place in the standings was still impressive, including his ability to fend off Champion Ryan Blaney at the Phoenix finale. I think Chastain and Trackhouse Racing see a bounce-back year to remember.
Chase Elliott
Everything that could have gone wrong went wrong last season for Chase Elliott. A leg injury in March, a race suspension in late Spring, missing the Playoffs, and a winless season for the first time since 2017 all look to be left in the rearview mirror. The only bright side saw his team’s battle for the Owners’ Championship; the team finishing 10th. Elliott will undoubtedly return to weekly contention with a return to the win column and a chance to remind his competitors what he is capable of.
Brad Keselowski
2022 saw Brad Keselowski have his worst overall statistical performance dating back to his 2010 rookie year in the Cup Series. Miraculously, he jumped from 24th to 8th in points and from six to 16 Top 10s in 2023. Keselowski has turned RFK Racing into a Championship-caliber team heading into his third season of becoming co-owner. Will this be the year he returns to Victory Lane? I say so. Will he make the 2024 Cup Series Playoffs? I surely say so.
Ty Gibbs
2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series Champion Ty Gibbs enters his sophomore year in Cup. The now-turned 21-year-old had some glimpses of stardom including Top 5 runs at difficult tracks like Pocono Raceway and Bristol Motor Speedway. Getting accustomed to longer race durations is important for any driver who makes it to the highest level. Gibbs will be around for a long time, and a Championship will one day call his name. Unlike last season, he will earn a victory and make the Playoffs in 2024.
IN BY A FRACTION
Bubba Wallace
What an underrated season Bubba Wallace had in 2023. Despite the absence of a win, he locked himself into Playoff contention and saw a near-win at Texas Motor Speedway almost advance his efforts to the Round of 8. Furthermore, the Alabama native went on to finish a career-best 10th in points with a near-three positional gain in average finish from 2022. Wallace continues to improve his craft behind the wheel and will likely return to the winners’ circle this year.
Chris Buescher
Chris Buescher’s 2023 run was simply incredible. Of all full-time racers, his average finish was ranked 2nd (12.1), his Top 10s were ranked 6th (17), and his three wins were ranked 3rd. Adding to his successes saw Buescher finish 7th in points, which bested co-owner and teammate Brad Keselowski. Many think this upcoming season will lack the same performance, but I beg to differ. Buescher will bring Prosper, Texas – which, as a reminder, has a population of 30,000 – another entry into the Playoffs.
Martin Truex Jr.
Last year’s 26-race Regular Season for Martin Truex Jr. looked to be a return to glory. Three wins and only five finishes outside the Top 20 made the 2017 Champion a sure threat to win the Title. Unfortunately, it went the opposite with two Top 10s and two DNFs resulting in a measly 11th in points. Hopefully, the off-season break has given Truex Jr. a reset as he enters what could be his final year of competition. Would retirement drive someone to peak execution or a downward slope?
Kyle Busch
Kyle Busch faired well in his first year driving for Richard Childress Racing. His three wins were the most in a season since 2019, and he was ranked 3rd in the Regular Season points standings by the 19th race at Atlanta. Busch’s Playoff run saw a tick downward with three Top 10s and five finishes of 20th or worse. Although I am worried about how the team finished the year, I still feel the former two-time Champion and all-time winningest NASCAR driver can make the Playoffs.
Erik Jones
Legacy Motor Club enters its first season fielding NASCAR’s Toyota Camry. This comes as a return to roots for Erik Jones, who was part of the manufacturer camp from 2013 to 2020. The former Craftsman Truck Series Champion looks for elevated performance after a 27th standings finish last year; the worst in his seven full-time seasons. It was, however, met with a 60-point penalty in June that declined his spot in points. Unlike 2023, Darlington Speedway is this year’s cutoff race before the ten-race Playoffs. I believe Jones will claim his third Southern 500 and secure his ticket into the Championship-hunting field.
FALLING SHORT
Alex Bowman
Every year, a notable driver fails to advance into the Playoffs. In a shock to many, I do not have Alex Bowman making the cut. In 2023, the Hendrick Motorsports driver did lead the points seven races into the season. However, a back injury changed the course of his season missing three races and having only four Top 10s in the last 23 races. The off-season for Bowman will be needed time for recovery and a reset. I hope to be proved wrong, but until we see results on the track, I cannot put him into my Top 16.
Josh Berry
33-year-old Josh Berry will get his shot in the premiere league of NASCAR. The Late Model veteran raced full-time in the Xfinity Series for JR Motorsports in 2022 and 2023. Berry faired well as a substitute for Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman in the Cup Series during their injuries last year. He will be an underestimated force in his switch to Stewart-Haas Racing’s No. 4 entry alongside Rodney Childers, but I think his speed will not show until the latter half of the year. As a result, I have Berry missing the Playoffs.
Daniel Suarez
Someone in need of a massive 2023 comes with Daniel Suarez. Last season, the former Xfinity Series Champion finished 19th in the standings. Although it was better than Trackhouse Racing’s first season in 2021, it lacked the win and results from 2022 as well as the frequency upfront when compared to teammate Ross Chastain. Suarez missed this year’s Busch Light Clash feature but went on to win the NASCAR Mexico Series race. That confidence boost was a needed shot in the arm, but I worry Suarez will come up short once more.
Chase Briscoe
Chase Briscoe is another driver looking for a fresh start in 2024. A 125-point penalty put the No. 14 team behind early and would ultimately finish up the year 30th in points. Briscoe’s strong runs were impressive including three straight Top 5s in the Spring, but the results were mixed in with numerous finishes in the back half of the field. A win for Briscoe is not outside the realm of possibility, but without one, I do not foresee him advancing onward.
NOT ENOUGH
Corey LaJoie
The year-to-year progression from Corey LaJoie has been special to watch. He and his team at Spire Motorsports have improved their average finishing position over four spots since 2021, and their overall competitiveness has elevated to a frequent, noticeable basis. Many hope to see his first win come soon in the NASCAR Cup Series, and it could come at a track like Atlanta, Daytona, or Talladega Superspeedway. Unfortunately, he has yet to earn a Top 10 on a non-superspeedway-style track. Fingers are crossed for a breakout year, but a spot for LaJoie in the Playoffs will be difficult.
Austin Dillon
The biggest disappointment of 2023 had to go to Austin Dillon. Early struggles came after being penalized 60 points after Martinsville Speedway’s Spring race. A 21.8 average finish, ten DNFs, and finishing 29th in the standings were all career lows. Meanwhile, teammate Kyle Busch found success with his three victories and frequent contention up front. Although many of last season’s crashes were out of his control, and although better results should materialize for Dillon in 2024, it will not be enough for a Playoff run.
Michael McDowell
Michael McDowell secured his second Cup Series victory with his win at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course. To his misfortune, NASCAR will be reverting back to the oval configuration for 2024. His racing background comes from those styles of racetracks, and only three will take place in the Regular Season (Circuit of the Americas, Sonoma Raceway, and the Chicago Street Course). McDowell’s abilities at superspeedways and road courses are imposing, but no win and few stage points will put him in jeopardy of missing the cut.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
2023 Daytona 500 winner Ricky Stenhouse Jr. remained a Playoff threat even without his trophy in the yearly opener. The former two-time Xfinity Series Champion had seven Top 10s and only eight finishes outside the Top 20 through the Regular Season. Playoffs, however, were a different story, where he would finish 16th of the 16 total competitors. His season did see the second-best average finish of his eleven-year Cup career. A lack of stage points could be what separates Stenhouse Jr. from making and coming up short of the line.
Carson Hocevar
Expectations are high for Carson Hocevar after impressing in his nine Cup Series races in 2023. His part-time gig was enough to earn a shot in the big leagues, and his rookie season will be behind the No. 77 Chevrolet for Spire Motorsports. Conversely, his mannerisms of intentionally wrecking drivers have not been something people have taken lightly. Until these mistakes are cleaned up, drivers will not race Hocevar with respect, and it will cause there to be no chance at the Playoffs.
FINAL FOUR & CHAMPION
Chastain, Elliott, Hamlin, Reddick
For a second time, Ross Chastain will take he and Trackhouse Racing to the Championship race at Phoenix. Chase Elliott’s resurgence will not be denied, and I have him making it to the finale. Two heartbreaking Round of 8 exits in 2022 and 2023 will be followed by Denny Hamlin’s return to the Final Four. Lastly, Tyler Reddick will find the needed consistency and rightfully earn his first shot at the Title.
I predict that Tyler Reddick will be the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Champion.
Be sure to check out my Playoff picks and Championship predictions for both the Xfinity Series and the Craftsman Truck Series.
The NASCAR Cup Series starts its 2024 season with the Daytona 500 on Sunday, February 18th. Stay tuned here at LWOS Motorsports for NASCAR news, results, updates, and more.
