The Oakland Raiders playoff destiny hinges on the result of Thursday night’s game against the Kansas City Chiefs — a win for either team essentially locks up the AFC West and a first round bye, while a loss makes a Wild Card berth more likely. Here is a look at Oakland’s various playoff scenarios in further detail:
Updated Oakland Raiders Playoff Scenarios
A Win Thursday
… would give the Raiders a two game lead over Kansas City in the West with three games to play, virtually guaranteeing a division title and first round bye.
Oakland could then set its sights on the number one seed in the conference. The Raiders currently own a tie break over the New England Patriots by virtue of a better win percentage in common games, but that could change by season’s end. If the Raiders do end up with the number one seed, they will face the lowest-seeded remaining team in round two, which will likely be a familiar opponent. Again assuming an Oakland victory Thursday night, the most probable round one match-ups would be the Denver Broncos, in line for the six seed, at the winner of the AFC North, and Kansas City at the winner of the AFC South. A round one Denver win would ensure them a trip to the Coliseum in round two, while a loss would send the winner between KC and the AFC South champ. Follow that?
If the Raiders end up with the second seed, their host of potential opponents will change slightly to include the AFC North champion, and any chance of Denver (or whichever team ends up as the six seed) traveling to Oakland in round two is removed.
A Loss Thursday
… would significantly diminish the Raiders chances to win the AFC West. Kansas City would own a tie break by virtue of two head-to-head wins, which means Oakland would need to win all of their remaining games (@ SD, vs IND, @ DEN) and hope the Chiefs slip up.
Fortunately Oakland is essentially guaranteed a playoff berth of some kind (which still feels strange to say), so their next task would be to jockey for Wild Card position. As mentioned, the fifth seed is likely to face the winner of the AFC South, while the sixth seed will match up with the AFC North champion.
The Numbers
Attempting to piece together playoff scenarios is a speculative process. While 2016 has been a year of failed projections for many quantitative systems, they can provide a bit of clarity for sorting out the last few weeks of the NFL season by assigning actual values to the “likely”‘s and “probably”‘s of conventional analysis.
The two most reliable sources for playoff projections, in my opinion, are from FiveThirtyEight, which uses an Elo based system for projections, and FootballOutsiders, which bases projections on their signature DVOA ratings.
FiveThirtyEight’s projections are high on the Chiefs; they rank second to New England in team Elo and have been given a 69% probability to beat the Raiders on Thursday. Oakland has a 35% chance to win the AFC West, compared to a 63% chance at a Wild Card.
As they have been all season, FootballOutsiders are more bullish on the Raiders than most. FO gives Oakland a 54% chance to win the division and secure a first round bye, and a 45% chance to end up with a Wild Card. To get more specific, they give the Raiders nearly the same odds for the number one seed as they do for the fifth seed, 37.7% and 37.8% respectively.
While we’re here: FiveThirtyEight gives Oakland 6% odds to win the Super Bowl. FootballOutsiders gives them an 11.8% chance. Might as well think big, right?
Making Sense of it All
The importance of Thursday night in regards to playoff implications cannot be understated. The result will be the difference between a first round bye and a January home game and a much less favorable situation via a Wild Card berth. The Raiders have played (and beaten) many of their potential opponents, so the team has reason to be confident regardless, but in a choice between scenarios, the Raiders would certainly prefer that the path to the Super Bowl in the AFC go through Oakland.
