The fantasy football playoffs have arrived, and the remaining teams are just two games away from their Fantasy Football Championship. An underused Sunday preparation strategy is predicting your players fantasy output for the week. Do not use the website projections, do the math yourself. It is a vital practice to predict how your team matches up by position with potential opponents.
This process continues by examining the critical fantasy running back position. In the second installment of the LWOPF fantasy playoff positional series, here are the top ten fantasy plays for the running back position in Week 15. (All statistics from PlayerProfiler.com)
Fantasy Football Playoffs Part II: Week 15 Running Backs
Player: Ezekiel Elliott (Dallas Cowboys)
Week 15 Rank: 1st
Fantasy Points Per Game: 22.2 (3rd)
Opponent: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Rank against position: 19th
Skinny: Elliott has become as much of a “sure thing” in fantasy football as any player. The Cowboys have played great all season and are looking to lock up the top seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Elliott gets fed behind the best offensive line in football, is leading the league in rushing yards, averaging 4.9 yards per carry, and has over 30 receptions as well. Tampa Bay’s run defense, while solid, does not pose enough of a threat on the road in Dallas. Elliott owners should expect a top fantasy running back performance from the rookie.
Player: LeSean McCoy (Buffalo Bills)
Week 15 Rank: 2nd
Fantasy Points Per Game: 19.8 (5th)
Opponent: Cleveland Browns
Rank against position: 31st
Skinny: The only reason to not have LeSean McCoy as the top Week 15 running back is because of Buffalo’s occasional tendency to give goal line touches to Mike Gillislee or quarterback Tyrod Taylor. McCoy has produced a tremendous year, averaging 19.8 fantasy points per game. He ranks first among all backs in Breakaway Runs (15 yards or more), and is fourth in Evaded Tackles with 67. The Browns rank 31st on the season against the run, and playing Buffalo on the road in December is never easy. McCoy’s floor is the highest of any running back in Week 15.
Player: David Johnson (Arizona Cardinals)
Week 15 Rank: 3rd
Fantasy Points Per Game: 26.2 (2nd)
Opponent: New Orleans Saints
Rank against position: 30th
Skinny: The undisputed number one running back in fantasy football gets the New Orleans Saints at home in Week 15. While the Saints rank 30th against the run this season, they have been significantly better of late giving up 50, 40, and 66 rushing yards to their opponents’ lead back in each of the last three games. In a must win for Arizona’s slim playoff chances, Johnson will be featured early and often. He ranks first among all running backs in total touchdowns (15) and receptions (69). Johnson also ranks third in red zone touches with 47. He’s a definite top three Week 15 finish for the player that should be this year’s NFL MVP.
Player: Le’Veon Bell (Pittsburgh Steelers)
Week 15 Rank: 4th
Fantasy Points Per Game: 27.0 (1st)
Opponent: Cincinnati Bengals
Rank against position: 19th
Skinny: Bell had an incredible 51.8 fantasy points last week. This week, the Steelers go on the road to play rival Cincinnati. There is a lot of bad blood between these teams, and the Bengals would love nothing more than to beat the Steelers at home to salvage something from their season. That is the only reason Bell isn’t higher. The Bengals have a run defense that only ranks 19th in points allowed to fantasy running backs. If you have Bell? Simply sit back and enjoy. Again, he scored 51.8 fantasy points last week.
Player: LeGarrette Blount (New England Patriots)
Week 15 Rank: 5th
Fantasy Points Per Game: 15.1
Opponent: at Denver Broncos
Rank against position: 22nd
Skinny: It can be very nerve racking to start a running back on the road in the fantasy playoffs. However, while the Broncos secondary sports the “no fly zone,” their run defense has been less than stellar. Currently ranked 22nd against the run, they will have a difficult time against the Patriots and LeGarrette Blount. Another perfect illustration of the success of the “Zero RB” drafting formula, Blount ranks second among all running backs in total touchdowns (14) and red zone carries (50). He ranks fifth in the league in rushing yards (1025) and fourth in evaded tackles (67). The game script here will be short passes and a ton of Blount attacking Denver’s rush defense. Blount is a lock for a rushing touchdown, and maybe two.
Player: Devonta Freeman (Atlanta Falcons)
Week 15 Rank: 6th
Fantasy Points Per Game: 15.9 (9th)
Opponent: San Francisco
Rank against position: 32nd
Skinny: It’s all about the matchups in fantasy football. Always. The Falcons at home playing against the defense that is worst against fantasy running backs is truly ideal. The trick here is to pick between Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. Knee-jerk reactionaries will go with Coleman after his 16 fantasy points last week at Los Angeles. A deeper dive however, shows that his performance was mainly touchdown dependent. Coleman scored twice on just eight rushing attempts and two receptions. Freeman’s last three games at home have produced 17, 19, and 21 fantasy points. Don’t get fooled: Freeman will be the better play and a potential top five play in Week 15.
Player: Kenneth Dixon (Baltimore Ravens)
Week 15 Rank: 7th
Fantasy Points Per Game: 7.9 (44th)
Opponent: Philadelphia
Rank against position: 13th
Skinny: The changing of the guard has occurred in the Baltimore backfield. Kenneth Dixon has supplanted Terrance West as the lead running back, and fantasy owners should reap the benefits in this playoff matchup. Dixon’s scoring the last three weeks as been ultra-consistent: 12.0, 11.7, and 22.1 fantasy points. Last week against New England, he out touched West 19-6, and seems primed to be a huge fantasy playoff difference maker. Dixon is elusive in space as proven by his sixth best positional juke rate (33.7 percent). Philadelphia’s run defense has been average at best on the road, and this ranking represents Dixon’s absolute fantasy floor.
Player: Lamar Miller (Houston Texans)
Week 15 Rank: 8th
Fantasy Points Per Game: 13.6 (20th)
Opponent: Jacksonville jaguars
Rank against position: 17th
Skinny: Miller has been an average plodder all year long. He is currently sixth in the league with 1,010 rushing yards, but merely 27th in total touchdowns with just five. Miller has been better of late however, with three touchdowns in his last six games and two games of 100 plus rushing yards. Playing at home will help him this week, and he faces a Jacksonville team that he produced a robust 5.53 yards per carry against in Week 10. The Texans are currently leading the AFC South, and will not falter at home against a 2-11 Jaguars team. Miller represents a solid top ten fantasy running back option.
Player: Spencer Ware (Kansas City Chiefs)
Week 15 Rank: 9th
Fantasy Points Per Game: 14.5 (14th)
Opponent: Tennessee Titans
Rank against position: 7th
Skinny: Volume, volume, volume. Ware is one of the few NFL running backs averaging 17 rushing attempts per game over the last four weeks. His versatility makes him an extremely safe play, ranking sixth among all fantasy running backs in receiving yards (402). Kansas City is always a difficult place to play and the Titans rush defense is strong. However, there are limited choices as running back this week which leaves Ware as a safe top ten fantasy play for the playoffs.
Player: Rob Kelley (Washington Redskins)
Week 15 Rank: 10th
Fantasy Points Per Game: 9.4 (38th)
Opponent: Carolina Panthers
Rank against position: 9th
Skinny: If you have Rob Kelley on your fantasy team, don’t fall prey to playing the early game players. Keep the patience and you will be rewarded. Washington plays Carolina at home on Monday Night Football in what looks to be a difficult matchup. While the Panthers rank ninth in the league against opposing fantasy running backs, Kelley will produce a top ten performance this week. Washington’s offensive line ranks tenth in run blocking efficiency on PlayerProfiler.com, and the last time Kelley faced a strong run defense at home was Green Bay in Week 11 where he scored three touchdowns. After three consecutive road games, Kelley will reward fantasy owners with a top ten Week 15 performance.
